Henry FTWynne - 4:02
Henry FTWynne - 4:02
Jacob m'fn Thomson for the win
Too close to call. A few observations:
Nice to see some HS coverage at LRC but it gets repetitive and annoying to read "it's not truly elite" every single time LRC does bother to cover HS. Way to take a dump on the best HS runners in the nation, guys. At least you're consistent.
"Colorado coach Mark Wetmore is going to be a very happy man next year as he may never have had an endurance guy this good with these type of wheels" about Ben Saarel (whose name is spelled wrong in the preview). Speaking of wheels going to CU, other fans of not-truly-elite-running (aka HS track) might know that Wetmore is also getting Zach Perrin from Montana next year, who runs 49 point in relay splits. CU is also getting Adam Peterman, so two sub-9 guys just from Montana alone.
Arroyo works out on a track literally made of asphalt (at least that's what it looks like on the video at flotrack). If he wins, it'll be proof that no one can make excuses about their facilities, that's for sure.
LI Runner wrote:
When are they going to outlaw the 1600 and the 3200? While a case can be made for running four (or eight) laps around a track, these distances are only run in U.S. high schools, no where else! It is not that difficult to move it back a few yards and make it a mile.
For the love of god! change the distance!
LOL why would they change the distance??? Seems kind of dumb to run a partial lap and some full laps. Plus all the records would be obsolete for no reason.
What does a 1:47 800 have to do with anything? History is littered with quality 800 guys who can't hack it at 1500/mile. A strong kick isn't just top end speed, it's top end speed plus having strong fitness so you are relatively comfortable when it's time to kick.
Arroyo hasn't shown us a fast finish yet. Just positive split races. Granted he's been alone, so that's not his fault, but we are only speculating at his kick.
Give me Saarels, the guy with the proven kick. And Montoya for second because his kick is proven too.
Race Prediction:
1. Andres Arroyo (3:58.8) - 1:47, 4:06 (full mile) and 8:51 with minimal competition. The kids got more raw speed than anyone else in the field. If they come through 1:59/2:00 and then 3:00, this kid has the wheels to slay the last lap.
2. Bernie Montoya (3:59.6) - 1:50.1, 4:01 (full mile) and 8:47. Returning champion, known for his blazing last 300. If the race is well paced, I could see him and Arroyo racing neck and neck down the final 300. Hell, they could come in a touch slow (3:01) and I could see them blazing the last lap.
3. Sean McGorty (4:00.4) - Although he has a 1:54 open PR, he's been clocked with a 1:52.9 split and 1:53.3 split during a 4x8, so he does have decent wheels on him. He's run 50 flat splits in the 4x4, not fresh. He doesn't have the fastest legs on the track, but I think he's certainly fast enough to attack 4:00. Just not enough to take down Arroyo or Montoya. Also, Penn Relays mile champion from wire to wire.
4. Ben Saarel (4:01.0) - 1:52, 4:08, 8:45. Several big wins and strong races at altitude. Defeated several of the big name contenders (undefeated so far) and closed several races very fast. I think he's got a big PR in him, but I have a hard time seeing him drop more than 8 seconds to break 4.
5. Ben Malone (4:01.7) - Ran a great 1500 the other day, 2nd at Penn Relays. Good list of credentials and experience running against competition. I think he'll do well.
6. Henry Wynne (4:02.8)
7. Jacob Thomson (4:03.3)
8. Edward Cheserek (4:03.9)
9. Robert Domanic (4:04.5)
10. James Randon (4:05.2)
11. Trevor Gilley (4:05.9)
12. Blake Haney (4:06.4)
13. Cameron Villareal (4:07.1)
14. Connor Mora (4:09.3)
Some of the biggest factors will be weather and pacing. If these kids are well hydrated, well tapered and the weather is good, I think a very strong field has been put together. If the weather is less than ideal, I expect the winner to be 4:00. Ideal pacing in my eyes would be: 59 (high), 2:00 (low), 3:00 (mid) and then whatever they can pull out on the last lap. If they go out in 58 and run 1:58 high, I think it can still be done. Any faster than that and they're gonna fade on the third lap. They can come through as slow as 2:01/3:01, as long as they're all running comfortably and ready to really race that last lap. A lot of these guys have incredible speed and I believe they are capable of closing in 58, maybe even 57. I really look forward to watching this race and wish the best of luck to all competitors.
Re: Cheserek
How old is he? This page lists him as 20 (Bday 1/1/93) Is that right? Im thinking not surely?
The "dream 100" has a few 'grown men' too it appears.
Anyway, I'll go with Arroyo although Im not overly confident in the pick. McGorty is my #2. Knows how to come up big.
Arroyo 3:58.38
McGorty 3:59.55
I'm from the New England area and I've been able to watch Henry Wynne at the New England Championships at XC and Indoor Track. And let me tell you this kid has pure guts and a nasty kick. You don't hear much of him as the only out of state races he races are the ones in New England or New Balance. In terms of talent he's right there with Arroyo as he runs a measly 30 mpw. He runs a lot of races generally alone and if he wins the Dream Mile I won't be surprised.
I wouldn't write off Cheserek based on his Louck's Games loss to Ben Malone. Apparently he had prom the night before and wasn't int the best race conditions. Also, he's not a known kicker, so letting it go out slow in ~2:11 wasn't the best race plan against a more speed based Malone.
I am not sure why Burcham isn't running. I did watch him at WV state meet and he looked a bit tired. He may due a short break before starting base training.
I am picking Montoya. I think he is most geared and trained towards this race. Arroyo peaked too early.
Montoya would have to be the favorite, having won last year, but the weather forecast is not great and I have no idea how a kid from Yuma will respond if these conditions pan out. He didn't run great in the cold and mud at NXN.
Latest forecast for Saturday from NOAA -
"Rain. High near 59. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible."
I think people are overestimating Arroyo simply due to his speed. An 800 does not a mile make! Sure he has the best speed but his mile PR is 4:06. It's very unlikely that he's gonna suddenly drop 7 seconds from times he's ran this same outdoor season. He's got decent strength to back up his 1:47 speed but obviously his strength is not as good as some of these other guys who have run faster in the mile and have 800's that are several seconds slower. I think he'll drop a few seconds, maybe get down to 4:02 or so, but at this point the 800 is clearly his event. In college he'll probably gain some more endurance and become a miler, but for right now he's an 800 guy that needs a few years to progress into a miler. He's a Robby Andrews: great 8 in HS, future miler. If he was already a 1:47/4:02 or something then it'd be a possibility. But he's a 1:47/4:06 guy as recently as the last few weeks. Look for him to be going after 4 minutes during outdoor track next year.
LetsRun.com wrote:
george oscar bluth wrote:So wait...did Verzbicas not run a sub 4 mile?
It's clearly stated that he did break-4 but he wasn't a US citizen at the time.
Edward Cheserek and Andres Arroyo are both not US citizens.
not gonna happen wrote:
I think people are overestimating Arroyo simply due to his speed. An 800 does not a mile make! Sure he has the best speed but his mile PR is 4:06. It's very unlikely that he's gonna suddenly drop 7 seconds from times he's ran this same outdoor season..
Have you watched the race where he ran the 4:04 1600? Completely solo at the beginning of season with 2nd place 20+ seconds back.
New Englander wrote:In terms of talent he's right there with Arroyo
So he can run a 1:47 800?
McGorty's only chance would be to crush the third lap. Arroyo hasn't done well in big meets.
1. Montoya 4:01.7
2. Sarral
3. Arroyo
4. Thompson
5. McGorty
6. Kip
quentus cassidamius III wrote:
Edward Cheserek and Andres Arroyo are both not US citizens.
Arroyo is a US citizen. See Jones-Shafroth Act, passed 1917.
I can tell you one thing, if this were a javelin measuring contest (if you know what I mean) , the order would go like this ( I would know):
1. Jacob Thomson
2. Edward Cheserek
3. Ben Saarel
4. Ben Malone
5. Blake Haney
6. Sean McGorty
7. Robert Domanic
8-13. All the kids who aren't big names
14. Andres Arroyo
15. Bernie Montoya
Yea so who got 2nd? Not Arroyo..Wynne did hell yeah!!!!