Solinsky - OXY 5k prediction

Even if Solinsky gets in A standard shape, can he really make the Moscow team in the 5k? If the race is slow at USA's, it'll be him, Lagat, Rupp, Lomong, and Bumbalough at the bell. He can't kick with those guys.

If the race is fast, Rupp, Lomong, and Lagat are almost unbeatable. Lomong is the weakest and he's still probably a sub 13 caliber runner. Lagat has only been beaten by Rupp, Webb, and Centro. A tired Rupp still won the 5k at the trials. Just sayin, it's gonna be tough.

no one thought solinsky was gonna run 26:59 either.

the guy is an animal. humble and harworking. more importantly, he has balls.

13:16 sounds about right.

13:05. And the blind fanboys will say it was due to having same coach for years, consistant injury-free training, long term plan, steady improvement, and he simply believes he can run with the Kenyans. And not because of pharmaceutical aid.

consistent injury-free training

oatmeal + water wrote:

more importantly, he has balls.

except when he's pushed by a 110 pound African.

having said that, I'm guessing 13:14.9

Would Solinsky really be doing a "mini-peak" at the US Championships? I'd think that it should be his peak race. Given that he is coming back from so much time off, medaling or doing anything huge at WCs seems unrealistic. It would be a big win this year just to make the WC team, especially in light of the quality of competition in the US now (probably need to be in sub 13 shape to have a chance).

I'm probably wrong, but if I was coaching him the peak race would be at the US Championships. Then build on that next year and hope for career peaks at the 2015 WC and 2016 OG.

just sayin wrote:

Even if Solinsky gets in A standard shape, can he really make the Moscow team in the 5k? If the race is slow at USA's, it'll be him, Lagat, Rupp, Lomong, and Bumbalough at the bell. He can't kick with those guys.

If the race is fast, Rupp, Lomong, and Lagat are almost unbeatable. Lomong is the weakest and he's still probably a sub 13 caliber runner. Lagat has only been beaten by Rupp, Webb, and Centro. A tired Rupp still won the 5k at the trials. Just sayin, it's gonna be tough.

You don't know for sure that Lomong is going to be doing the 5000 and not the 1500. And even if he is in the 5000, he is a 13:07i guy, not a ~12:59 guy or a 12:53 guy. Big difference. I don't see Sol getting back all the way this year, but he has run 12:55, and sub-13:07 might be doable. Don't think he can touch Rupp and Lagat this year. Next year may be an entirely different deal, just like Tyson Gay just displayed.

With regard to Lomong, I would strongly argue that there is not a big difference at all between a 12:59 guy and a 13:07i guy. I would peg the latter as the better performance frankly.

Watch It:

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/250668-Payton-Jordan-Cardinal-Invitational-2013/video/707784-M-5K-H01-True-holds-off-Jager

@6:45 of feed:"There's a pack that's fallen off a little bit and the contains the Curtis, Webb, Solinsky trio..." Solinsky split gets up to 7.2 seconds off lead pace, and 22nd place of finishers.

Awesomeness @11:10 of feed:

"So at this point with Ben True, Chelanga-"

"And yeah I'm-"

"Who do you like-"

"Well yeah I'm gon-"

"Diego's on-"

"Well I'm gonna change the subject here John for a second because leading that chase group is Chris Solinksy. He's making up some ground."

11th place in 13:23.62, 9.2 seconds off the 13:14.4 win.

Oxy in 13:13.8

I think he'll train to be at his best on June 20th, but I don't get the sense that he'll be in his best shape if the season then, simply because the injury put him behind schedule.

And I agree that he's a big underdog to Rupp, Lagat, and Lomong. . . and a bit if an underdog to a few others perhaps. But enough to be counted out? No. He's on a steep trajectory right now, and favorites choke, fall, get hurt, get busted, etc.

oatmeal + water wrote:

more importantly, he has balls.

so does literally every runner at that level. u think they're just jogging?

Don't think he can touch Rupp and Lagat this year. Next year may be an entirely different deal, just like Tyson Gay just displayed.

Wrong. He'll never be able to outkick Galen again.

13:17. Heartbreaking miss. He wasn't going to make the squad this year anyway though. He'll rebound, run 13:05 in Europe, and be back under 13 by 2014.

I think Solinsky was close to 3:50 for his last 1500.

If Lomong runs the 1500, something I could see him do (wouln't be at all surprised to see him drop in distance this year to make him all the faster for the 5000 next year), then its really a race between Solinsky and Bumbi (assuming Derek and True run the 10,000).

That could be really interesting. I'm still so surprised about Chris' trajectory. I really did not think he would get to sub 13:00 again, and now I think if he stays injury free, its inevitable. He's 28, so not too young, but sub 13:00 should be doable in 2013 (28), 2014 (29), 2015 (30). By 2016, he'll likely have to give it a go in the 10,000 for the Olympics. Still, 31, though not young, is certainly OK to still be in the hunt, I think.

Its really too bad he was injured last year. He really would have had a shot at a medal in the 5000 last year had he kept his 2011 form.

When/where is this Oxy race?

I thought it was this race on the 12th, but Solinsky isn't on the heat sheet:

http://www.oxyathletics.com/sports/mtrack/2012-13/files/MeetProg.htm

[link/]

It's on the 17th at Occidental College.

http://oxyathletics.com/sports/mtrack/2012-13/usatf2013meetinfo