OLYMPIC MARATHON PREDICTIONS

Marathons are inherently unpredicatable, look at the 2003 Worlds, where a relative unknown Morrocan beat everybody on a relatively easy course.

The Athens Olympic Marathon makes the task of prediction far more difficult by the difficulty of the course and conditions.

I have to give Korir the edge over Tergat due to his wide ranging MARATHON experience, over so many difference kinds of courses.

As for the women, I believe that the winner will be Japanese.

As for the Americans, I have faith in OUR team.

Jason

Jason,

I realize it is just a prediction but what does that mean "I have fatih in our team"? I mean you predicted that both races would be won by Korir and some japanese women.

Am I still banned?

Tergat is going to win. Meb and Culpepper will both finish decently (12th and 13th?) but it will not matter at all, it will be a not bad performance, not good one.

VoidSix wrote:

Tergat is going to win. Meb and Culpepper will both finish decently (12th and 13th?) but it will not matter at all, it will be a not bad performance, not good one.

I don't agree that the americans will finish that high but you are retarded if you think that 12th or 13th isn't good for those guys.

Nice, safe picks, folks.

I'll say Culpepper bronze and Kastor silver. Mix in Africans and a Russian woman for the other medals.

And try these surprise medals elsewhere: Webb bronze, Wariner and Hemingway gold, and 2 US medals in the decathlon.

Guess Again wrote:

EPO and Blood agent testing will rule out the Italian (Baldini)and El Mouaziz (Morrocco) or will it.

I was wondering about that as well.

I don't know what the Koreans are doing these days, but their marathoners are mighty tough. In light of the course conditions in Athens, I'll pick one of the Koreans for the medals, quite possibly gold.

Ordinarily, I'd pick Abera to win, but his achilles problems make him a bit of a long shot. Still, I'll pick an Ethiopean for a medal.

My third medal pick is one of the Kenyans. Hard to say which one.

Among the Americans, I think that Meb and Alan C. will do well, somewhere around tenth place.

10. The announcer will suggest at least once during the mens race that the viewers go out to their local track and run a lap as fast as they can.

hahaha. I was thinking the exact same thing. I remember watching an El G race once and the announcer was like, "folks, I'm serious, go down to your local high school track and run 100 meters in 14 seconds. these guys will run that over and over and never stop."

Given the fact that Meb believes he has a decent chance to medal and the fact that Culpepper beat him at the trials, I would say 12th and 13th aren't exactly the result that Culpepper and Meb are going for. So, if they do not meet expectations, it wouldn't be a good performance, now would it?

Right. Those are their goals but that doesn't make them realistic. Ryan Shay and Todd Reesor and Kevin Collins and Eddy EPO were all in the best shape of their lives going into the trials (according to them in interviews) and would be disappointed if they didn't make the team. NONE OF THEM DID. Why? Because the goals were unrealistic. There will be 20 athletes with sub 2:08 performances going into the Oly marathon. It is unrealistic to think that Meb or Culp are capable of medaling. Or that the 20-30 athletes will all have bad days while they have their best day. Top 15 for an american would be a good day.

Read on a local paper here in Addis that Abera is looming large and in charge. He won a 40KM race to get the nod for the team. Maybe he had little competition.. but it is possible his withdrawl from London.. was a slick move to grab the apperance fee.. and build slowely from athens.. The guy is a FOX...

I still thing Tergat is hard to beat... so he has to be the favorite on Pedigree..

I am not thrilled by the lineup..

In the womens, radcliffe should win..

top three Radliffe, any of the Japanese, Ndebera, and possibly Alemu, and Sun of china.

little more difficult to tell.

Thanks for the update from Addis. I hope that Abera gets to Athens healthy and in great shape. In this age of fast times in rabbitted races, Abera doesn't get the respect he deserves. The guy is a winner.

Watch out for Lee Troop. He's getting better and better with every 'thon.

Sometimes you cannot define success by medals alone.

I think that one of our marathoners could medal, if they race intelligently.

If our guys take down a significant number of Africans and sub 2:10 guys, finish strong, and improve upon our standings in the Olympics since 1984, then they have been successful.

Interesting comment about possible rope-a-dope by Abera.

Don't forget that Tergat scratched from the same race, citing a minor injury, so that he could put in 200 mile weeks in the Kenyan hills for months in preparation for winning Olympic gold, the only thing he hasn't got yet.

But, fast times don't matter at the championships, especially the Olympics, especially on the Athens course. Winning is the only thing, and winning races is what Abera does.

If he's there at the finish, can he out-kick Tergat, though? I doubt it. Anyone who remembers the 10,000 at Sydney (yes, he was chased down, but damn), or even the 2003 Berlin Marathon when he went sub-2:04:54 to Korir's 2:04:55 knows that Tergat has sick finishing speed when needed. I'm sure he's not neglecting that in his training.

1. Paul Tergat (KEN)

2. Alberto Chaiça (POR)

3. asian athlete maybe

NEW PREDICTIONS:

(1) Sammy Korir

(2) Toshinari Suwa

(3) Dan Browne

I am predicting about a 40% drop out rate in the mens race, about a 20% drop out rate in the womens.

Womens Prediction

(1) Reiko Tosa

(2) Mizuki Noguchi

(3) Ham Bong Sil

PedroAlberto wrote:

1. Paul Tergat

2. Abera

3. Vanderlei Cordeiro (Brasil)

4. Ramaala

5. Baldini

6. Culpeper

Meb will drop out.

I bet you were the only person in the world to guess right for bronze in the men's race.

Baldini will be too strong in the men's.

Meb will run well but Baldini will be way to strong.Many will question Baldini's drug status.Tergat will keep the Kenyan's poor record at olympic marathons intact despite starting favorite.Vanderlei De Lima will collect a medal but will "hit the wall" and just hang on.

Paula will struggle due to the toughness of the course and the heat.Look for the japanese ladies again.They seem to Have something special saved for the Olympics.