Sub 4:40 freshman with 51.x 400 meter speed would make it much more likely.
Sub 4:40 freshman with 51.x 400 meter speed would make it much more likely.
Then of course there was Jim Ryun who at age 15 ran 5:38 for the mile and didn't make the B team at first. Of course, that was in his first season of cross country. But, still who would have ever bet on him at that point?
I don't think it's either necessary or sufficient to run less than 4:40 for a mile to go sub 4 later in life. Obviously, if you are running 6 minutes at the end of your freshman year, the odds are even lower.
Not really enough to go on--
you can't rule out a future sub-4 for the guy, but its by no means a sure thing
i recall being impressed by a guy i knew ran 4:55 mile frosh year HS off maybe 30 miles/wk training--
the guy improved only slightly in the years to come, mostly because he was so inconsistent in his training.
He never came anywhere near 4:00...
He was lucky to run maybe 4:35 much later on and gave up running altogether a couple years out of HS...
On the other hand, guys like Shorter, Rodgers, and more recently, Brian Sell, all had underwhelming HS careers and then went on the become Olympians...
Realistically? No. If you ran a 4:20 as a freshman it would still be extremely unlikely.
I ran 4:45 as a freshman and progressed like this
soph: 4:36
junior: 429
senior: 4:22
College:
Fresh: 4:16
Soph: 4:18
Never ran the mile again. Concentrated mainly on the 3k indoor and the steeple/5k outdoor. I ended up being a mid pack D1 guy running 9:16 for steeple and 15:00 5k, 8:37 indoor 3k.
itypesomethingdifferenteachtim wrote:
Sub 4:40 freshman with 51.x 400 meter speed would make it much more likely.
This. Webb was running only 54 for 400 freshman year, but he improved to sub 50 by sophomore. What really showed promise was his 1:56 800 freshman year.
4:40 as a freshman, by itself, is as much a predictor of a fast 3200 or 5k as a fast mile senior year. Speed may improve quite a bit in four years, especially with weights, drills and sprints, but there is at least as much room to improve aerobic capacity.
4:43 as frosh
4:17 as senior
3:59 as 24 year old
Possible? Absolutely. Likely? Depends on the kid. A kid I went to hs with ran 4:34 as a freshman in hs and then ran 3:58 in college.
dfsdfsd wrote:
Your friend has the potential. You don't. Not with that "my friend" attitude.
Hmmmmm, I assumed that he was the "friend".
Depends if you're in touch with Jesus
most likely wrote:
Mary Cain ran 4:38 as frosh and 4:31 as soph.
Mary will run a sub 4 1500m!