Isaiah Koech Will Run About 26:30 In Brussels

spot on.

at least I am correct that he is young, no?

yyy wrote:

at least I am correct that he is young, no?

He was 17 a couple of years ago, so he's probably about 14 now.

(Have I got this Kenyan age system right?)

This could be a great thread with one of the better trolls of the last few months gearing up for a fight with Ventolin who is sure to start ranting based on people contradicting his formula results.

didn't your mother teach you not to use foul language?!??

ventolin^3 wrote:

Bad Wiggins wrote:Some people run better on the roads than in 25 little circles

very, very few

But the majority of Leonard Komons.

Looking at the start list, i dont think the 10k is on..

http://www.diamondleague-brussels.com/en/Live-StartlistsResults/Overview/

Koech has never raced a 400 in his life (ever even an 800?) yet Vent has him pegged within .2 seconds. Right.

He is young, but not as young as you think. He's probably at least 23 or 24.

your line of fit says 51.6 and that actually makes sense to you?

it's pretty much the same training, that's why the guy who ran the 10000m WR managed the 5000m record also.

the other variable not considered is that he will not be tucked in following pacers for 25 laps.

You are completely right. It is a good thing (for all the fanboys) that Koech was not in the Olympic 10000m. He would have defeated Rupp for sure. Throw in one of the Kenyan marathoners and Rupp would have been out of the medals. The 10000m was a very watered-down event. Rupp's ceiling in the 5000m is 12:55; he cannot compete with Koech. Rupp looks like Peter Pan. Rupp is lucky that the pollen count was not that high during the 10000m final. Rupp is on PEDs and has had every advantage possible since birth. Rupp sucks.

ventolin^3 wrote:

Bad Wiggins wrote:Some people run better on the roads than in 25 little circles

very, very few

I would say probably about 80% run faster on the roads! Think of every collegian who tried a 10k in the US...Most would say they ran faster in some road 10k post college!

162430 wrote:

You are completely right. It is a good thing (for all the fanboys) that Koech was not in the Olympic 10000m. He would have defeated Rupp for sure. Throw in one of the Kenyan marathoners and Rupp would have been out of the medals. The 10000m was a very watered-down event. Rupp's ceiling in the 5000m is 12:55; he cannot compete with Koech. Rupp looks like Peter Pan. Rupp is lucky that the pollen count was not that high during the 10000m final. Rupp is on PEDs and has had every advantage possible since birth. Rupp sucks.

You mad bro?

Koech will NOT run 26:30 in Brussels. The winner, will not be anywhere close to 26:30. And here's why.

There are two possible scenarios:

1) The pacemaking is absolutely atrocious, as it very commonly is. Uneven pacing will cause the leaders to go through 5k in 13:30ish. After that it becomes a tactical affair. Winning time: 27:10.

2) The pacemaking is actually pretty good. The leaders go through 5k in 13:20ish, maybe a little bit under, and the field is set up nicely for fast finishing times. But once the pacemakers drop out, everybody backs off the pace because nobody has the guts to push on like Eliud Kipchoge did last year in Brussels. Yes, even Koech will back off. Pace dwindles down to 66/67 seconds per lap. Winning time: 26:55.

Either way, it all comes down to the pacemaking in the first 5k, and how much Koech wants to run a fast time. Remember, at some point he'll HAVE to do some work himself. But as we've seen in the past, most runners would rather take it easy and win the race, than push on and finish 5th or 6th.

Koech will not run 26:30. He's more like a komen type I think.

Clifford Clavin M.D. wrote:

As an expert on ceilings, I can GUARANTEE that Koech will NOT run 26:30 in Brussels this week.

While you're pointing out the obvious, you might as well say that he will also not break 25:30 this week either. Koech is good, but he has no shot at a sub-26:30 right now. Ventolin's assessment seems accurate, but remember that he's referring to perfect racing scenario. I'm guessing more like 26:45 to 26:55.

Also, the field is extraordinarily weak this year and I doubt that many guys will hang on to a sub-27. Therefore, there won't be many people to push him near the end of the race.

dsrunner wrote:your line of fit says 51.6 and that actually makes sense to you?

yes

you are making naive mistake of over-rating their speed

these elite 5/10kers don't have superior speed to most top college guys, it's just that they tack on unbelievable endurance to that basic 400

it's pretty much the same training, that's why the guy who ran the 10000m WR managed the 5000m record also

no

koech is a 3k/5k guy not currently a 5k/10k one

the training is different with latter requiring more endurance work, former needing more speed

the other variable not considered is that he will not be tucked in following pacers for 25 laps.

no one said he was

wang, the greatest women track distance runner of all time never ran one either on the circuit, but the calculator got her 400 to 0.1s

from a top poster/source :

canova :

my reply :

perhaps the calculator only works for greatest female track distance runner of all time & no one else...