Bolt strongly considering 400, LJ at 2016 Games in Rio

Sprintgeezer wrote:

I should add that the requirements of the LJ and the 100m seem to me to be somewhat mutually exclusive.

Lewis was the anomaly who could do both, and that is what makes him great.

Good comment here. Just because two of the greatest Olympians of all times (Owens/Lewis) did it, doesn't mean you could be good at one if you're good at the other.

How do you factor Kirani James into the Bolt does the 400m conversation, sprintgeezer?

Bolt has a lot of 400 results from his pre-Beijing days, his bests visible on that IAAF page somebody linked.

He was equal to James at an early age, but James has continued to improve progressively, whereas Bolt showed that he could run a 45-mid pretty consistently.

Yes, I know about Bolt's injuries, which could have stalled his development. I also know what heals injuries very well.

He was also stalled-out in the 200m during that time, but his 200 obviously improved dramatically--why not the 400? Although he hasn't shown the same steady progression as has James, he has shown meteoric progression in the 200m.

James is good, but 43.94 while focusing on the 400 is still a very long way from 43.18 If his averaged annual rate of performance increase holds for next year (around .50 estimated), he would be 43-mid. You would expect the law of diminishing returns to set in, however, so his rate of improvement might slow.

The 400 is known as a young man's game, and looking at how James' form, it looks like he runs on pure ability. Think about how Bolt would run if he lost 20 or more lbs. We have all seen him "jog" at 25 mph in the second half of some 100m races, all he would need to do would be to keep that up for a short while longer, and he's got that WR.

I also do believe that Bolt is lazy. He's so damn talented, that his laziness is justifiable. I also believe he has juiced, which prevents him from getting injured after he realizes he's been lazy and panics, cramming in furious training just before big events.

I don't know if that strategy would work for the 400, though. I have always that that 400m is the distance where volume of work becomes important. I have seen 400m guys do serious overdistance, like 600m. That is a WORLD away from 100m training. Could juicing alone get Bolt the 400m WR? IMHO, no. Would Bolt do the kind of training required to get the 400m WR? By how he is talking, it doesn't sound like he wants to do it. He knows what 400m training is, he's done it before. Compared to 100m training, it sucks.

He got injured with his 400m training before, but if he juiced, I think he could eliminate those injuries. Just like the 100m and the 200m, if he did the same thing that he did for those events and actually trained the 400m, I don't think it would take him any more than one year to break the 43.18

Seriously, I think that if he began training RIGHT NOW, he could break 43.18 at the 2013 WC's in Moscow.

I once made the mistake of underestimating the speed of improvement of which he is capable, in the sprints. I will not make that mistake again.

I will even go on to say that he could f the d for the next 3 years, do whatever he did this year, and come back and win the 100m in Rio. Absolutely.

Ummmm...if you actually followed track and field you would know that there were a number of observors and grumblings which really pointed to a lack of focus during a good portion of 2010 and 2011. Amazing what an emerging Blake and upcoming Olympics will do for a person's motivation. However in 2016 Bolt will also be 4 years older and it is safe to say the competition won't be slacking any. The margin for error in the past 4 years to back off in training was much diminished (again, Blake), and that margin for error to back off from training and not be penalized is likely to lessen even more.

So Bolt HAS actually run in the 44 range for 400?

Not Quite Right There wrote:

Ummmm...if you actually followed track and field you would know that there were a number of observors and grumblings which really pointed to a lack of focus during a good portion of 2010 and 2011. Amazing what an emerging Blake, A WELL-TIMED DOPING CYCLE, and upcoming Olympics will do for a person's motivation. However in 2016 Bolt will also be 4 years older and it is safe to say the competition won't be slacking any. The margin for error in the past 4 years to back off in training was much diminished (again, Blake), and that margin for error to back off from training and not be penalized is likely to lessen even more.

fixed for you.

Unmistakably Dismissive wrote:

So Bolt HAS actually run in the 44 range for 400?

It doesn't matter. Look at what Blake just did with his 9.69

Jamaican progression is off the charts.

Bolt could skip the 44's completely and go right to the 43's.

Gold in 100m 200m 400m 4x100 4x400 LJ

The greatest athlete ever-if he accomplishes this feat.

Bolt spilt 43.58 in a relay two years ago,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TK2lPYfkG-8

Wearing black, receiving the baton in 4th place on the anchor leg.

Personally the 400 and the long jump were my two best events in high school so I think the double is not far-fetched.

he is a fast-speed/low-angle jumper

wt isn't consideration

heike-doper was 21.71/7.48 doper ( wr is 7.52 ) & she isn't in his sprinting class

i'd expect a minimum of 8.50 just off his speed if he tried now ( he musta lj'ed as kid to get some experience & he woudn't talk about event he never tried )

if he concentrated on it, he'd have to be looking for

8.75 - 9.25

i woud expect

9.00 - 9.10

next year if he trained this winter for it

Gotta run it first wrote:

No where does that say he's strongly considering the 400. His coach wants him to run it, Bolt wants to try the long jump.

True, but given that he has run a bunch of off-peak 400s already (rendering your handle meaningless), the fact that he's likely to listen to his coach, and (most of all) how much his ego craves a third world record, it's a safe bet that he'll be racing 400s seriously before long.

"it's a safe bet that he'll be racing 400s seriously before long"

UNLESS he feels that his current records are seriously threatened by Blake, which they are.

I think that Blake came along way to soon for Bolt's liking, but since Bolt was the reason for Blake, he has only himself to thank.

And you will soon be able to add other names to the list that is now only one name, Blake.

Can Bolt respond to this onslaught? Can he deliver a 9.4x sometime in the next 2 years? Who knows. Will he try? I don't know, the 400m might be lower-hanging fruit. He felt seriously threatened already this year, ran as hard as he could, and only managed a 9.63 (which was his 9.58 re-created with a .04 worse first 20m).

Too soon, too soon! Since Blake will never be caught because Bolt will never be caught, we are in for a 100m revolution. Within 3 years we could well see 3 or 4 guys not named Bolt running 9.6x/low 9.7x, who are now still young.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

And you will soon be able to add other names to the list that is now only one name, Blake.

Can Bolt respond to this onslaught?

Within 3 years we could well see 3 or 4 guys not named Bolt running 9.6x/low 9.7x, who are now still young.

And an onslaught it is. Just this year alone, Jamaica has seven men under 10.00 and five under 20:00. This, in a country with less than *one percent* of the U.S. population. Imagine if we had eight hundred men under 10.00 and about 550 under 20.00...yeah, that's an oversimplification but the increasing prominence of JAM names at the top of sprint lists is truly a phenomenon.

You make a good point about Bolt most likely wanting to protect his 100/200 records for as long as he can, but my guess is that he believes that he won't be able to hold off Blake (or perhaps someone else) in those events four years from now. So I would guess that Bolt makes a serious effort to lower his 100/200 records in the non-championship 2013, and after that, moves up at least part-time.

* wrote:

Bolt spilt 43.58 in a relay two years ago,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TK2lPYfkG-8

Wearing black, receiving the baton in 4th place on the anchor leg.

Personally the 400 and the long jump were my two best events in high school so I think the double is not far-fetched.

Add the fact that this race was IN FEBRUARY.

With his 19.19 shape...he was in 43.4 shape for sure.

HE'S A 42.9 SPECIMEN, FOLKS. HE'S BOLT.

Virtually Certfiable:

As others have mentioned, he ran 45.35 when he was 16 and was a 20.13 200 guy. He was on the cover of the September 2003 issue of Track and Field News with the caption "The Next Great Long Sprinter?" or words to that effect.

400 and LJ double is rare but is not unprecedented. Anthuan Maybank is the only guy under 45 and over 27. It will be interesting to see what Bolt can do. Tommie Smith also long jumped at the NCAA champs once and got injured.

MJ and Lashawn are the only guys to break 20 and break 44. Tyson Gay is the only guy under 10, 20, and 45. Bolt could potentially surpass everyone.

moron

bolt was tyson's whipping boy in '07

blake was nothing

idiot

combo of tyson getting hurt + bolt up from 9.9/19.7 abilty

moron

if you have 0.04s lost in 1st 60, it offers you an overall 0.08s over 100m

idiot

he is in same 100m shape as '09

moron

drivel

9.6-high/9.7-low is expected

once again

get your peabrain around this :

this was

low-9.6 basic

if his knee stood up in '01 beyond 60m

Bolt worshippers doing what they do best in this thread. What next ridiculous claims are they going to make? He's going to break the 800m and 1500m WR and the LJ WR while still defending his 100m and 200m titles? LOL. Get real.

No one can be the best in the world at the 100m and 400m simultaneously, unless you can literally alter your muscles and body overnight, and hence anyone who accomplishes such a feat should be tested thoroughly for gene doping. It's the same reason why you won't see an athlete holding the WR in the 400m, 800m, and the 1500m.

Bolt had the choice in 08 if he wanted to be a 100m/200m man or a 200m/400m man, and its obvious which he chose. You can't have your cake and eat it, too.

You might want to look up some old videos of Marion Jones doing the LJ. The (ahem) "technique" is difficult to watch. Bolt is NOT going to jump like Carl, who started jumping at age 6.

Please look up "slippery-slope argument."

And you say this based on what evidence? Besides, he wouldn't be aiming to remain the best at the 100 when training for the 400. Also, he's the most dominant sprinter of all time. And anyone who can crack a 19.18 for 200 obviously has the potential to run, at worst, in the 43s for 400. Do you understand the reasons these things are irrefutable?

Do you recogize how much more dissimilar the 400 and 1500 are than the 200 and 400? Can you "get" that?

Yes he did choose that -- in 2008 and in 2012. But people move up in distance as they age. 1500 guys become 5000 guys. 400 runners sometimes become 800 runners (as with Jearl Miles-Clark, and Alberto Juantorena won gold in both in the same Olympics). Can you grasp this? Hello?