Robby Andrews will either win the 1500 or not make the top 3

Odds by place:

1st 30%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 15%

5th 10%

Worse 5%

lost in Boston wrote:

whirledpeas wrote:

who takes it out fast and honest?

Nobody. Everybody will wait for somebody else.

Nobody also will try a 600 meter drive. Everybody will wait for somebody else to do that, too.

Nobody will do anything except try to stay close as the pace picks up with 300 to go and everybody kicks with 100 meters to go.

A large blanket will cover the first five in.

This is what the final is going to look like

Torrence has had the best season and may be the fittest but has not shown to be clutch in tactical races.

Manzano is an animal and a gamer. Might not be the fittest.

Centro is world class and running with confidence. However, he just may not have the fitness.

Wheating is in great shape but I don't think a slow race is going to suit him well because his tactics are flawed.

Andrews is in great shape and is a savvy racer. I think he'll make it.

Leer looked great through the rounds. He's a savvy racer and clutch. Not that fit though.

Bayer is dangerous. He trailed Andrews in the semi and may do that in the final. McNamara is in great shape. Batty is dangerous.

InigoMontoya's bro wrote:

whirledpeas wrote:

i don't think he has the fitness or *hubris* to be top 3 1500.

he's too young.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Classic!

Let's say you are a guy in the final who needs the A standard. That means your chances are slim in any case, so you go for the standard.

Here's how:

Sit in the middle of the pack for the first 400. Then you take it, don't look back. Chances are at least 3 guys outkick you, but maybe you run the A.

Kip Keino used this in Mexico City, and the '70 Commonwealth games, and other races too, no doubt (he tried in in the Jim Ryun 1500 record run also--ease through the first lap, then go.

jghgx wrote:

[quote]lost in Boston wrote:

[quote]whirledpeas wrote:

This is what the final is going to look like

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6EPpy8vMEo&feature=player_detailpage#t=28s

Boom!

That's it

I think Andrews has a 80% chance of making the team, but it will be in the 800. Track and Field Coverage is so limited in this country that I had no idea Andrews even ran the 1500. I am guessing his pr is around 3:36. That is just a guess. I might well google his name and find out for myself.

Wow, a 3:34.78 1500 PB this year.

wouldn't it be funny if Andrews kept haunting Wheating by outkicking him for either the win or the final olympic spot? btw why are both of these guys running the 1500 instead of the 800???

With all this sub 3:35 1500 meter talent the US must have at least two finalist at London.

Wheating would've been a long shot in the 800, and his 1500 is much better anyway-- how many other Americans have run 3:30?

Andrews is going to be more or less chance if he gets in or not. He has the speed, but will things open up for him? Or will he get blocked from passing? It doesn't matter how fast you are if you can't get free, as Kiprop almost discovered at the Kenyan OTs.

Thanks google wrote:

With all this sub 3:35 1500 meter talent the US must have at least two finalist at London.

The A standard is sub 3:35.5. At least 80% of the people at the Olympics will have run sub 3:35. You need to be closing in sub 1:50 for the last 800 to make the finals and even then it will be tough. It's going to be brutal for everyone getting knocked out, but that's why it's so awesome to watch!

Most of the 80% that have the A are Africans. I am not aware of anyone for the United Kingdom with the 1500 A standard. Ok, maybe Andy Baddley(?) has it.

I still don't think the Wheating that ran a 3:30 1500 is the one we will see at the trials. If he had that injury 30 years ago he still be hobbling around. To Even come back after such an injury and run just over the A standard is a miracle. I have a feeling the top three finishers will have the A standard already shown up. Unlike past years you won't have American's running frantically abroad trying to achieve the standard.

That is why it is so vital to have the standard before the trials.

With so many runners with the A standard you may not see a fast final. It could be a kicker’s race where B standard runners with good kicks may have a chance. Still, I believe the top three will be A standard runners. The runners with 3:38-3:40 speed are primarily there to pad the field.

Centos and Manazano are pretty much shoe ins. They are so far ahead of anyone else it really is not a contest. If Wheating weren't coming off an injury he be a shoe-in as well.

Toop wrote:

A Duck wrote:

This final has the potential to be a monster...

Or...a dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, typical, lazy assed slow sit and kick OT 1500.

That's probably what it is going to be.

So, that favors Andrews, Centro, Wheating.

So you're saying that a slow pace favors people with the fastest 1500m times, except for Manzano, who has run a1:44.

Does a fast pace favor the people that are slower at 1500m?

Maybe McNamara can pull away from tose guys if the pace is fast.

Naw, I just don't have faith in Manzano...he throws in a clunker too often.

J-Mac...seems confident...and maybe he is a sleeper, finally finding his way after years of injury, and now getting a couple of years of back to back training in...

Not, nothing stupid about my comments.

The race that happens is not about what each one of these guys wants.

For some reason, Centro has show the ability to run rounds, and run all kinds of races as they develop smartly.

Centro out kicked all those guys last year, so why not. The thing is, he didn't have to kick from lane 3-4-5.

J-Mac, Leer, Torrence/See...as many have said this race is a huge question mark as to who is really in shape to handle a final after rounds...

Everybody roots for who they want to.

Personally I want Centro and Wheating to make it.

I think Andrews is going to make it for sure.

I think it is going to end up being a slow/medium tactical race.

I hope, it is going to be a deal where a couple of the non A standard guys get together and work to make it an A standard race...that would be the most exciting thing, and give us the best potential team (hopefully).

Stating the obvious wrote:

It's pretty clear who's going to make the team:

Leo, Centro and David

I mean, it will be a race, but that's who I got now.

Don't be so sure, Centro has been coy during these trails, running well within himself and...as Craig M. revealed the other night, Centro had knee surgery in April and lost 4 weeks training...

So, can he bring it for another race after rounds?

alsdfa wrote:

Torrence has had the best season and may be the fittest but has not shown to be clutch in tactical races.

Manzano is an animal and a gamer. Might not be the fittest.

Centro is world class and running with confidence. However, he just may not have the fitness.

Wheating is in great shape but I don't think a slow race is going to suit him well because his tactics are flawed.

Andrews is in great shape and is a savvy racer. I think he'll make it.

Leer looked great through the rounds. He's a savvy racer and clutch. Not that fit though.

Bayer is dangerous. He trailed Andrews in the semi and may do that in the final. McNamara is in great shape. Batty is dangerous.

Andrews is a savvy racer?

I wouldn't call him that, but he has an insane kick and I expect him to be way in the mix. I actually think he's the favorite.

njrunner22 wrote:

The guy has such talent and raw speed but he is sometimes unpredictable and races funny (i.e. hangs in the back too long, drops an insane last lap, but doesnt catch the winners because of how far back he was) Does anybody else think he is either gonna win the trials or not qualify at all?

He's not going to win and he'll be pressed to finish in the top 3 unless Wheating, Centro, and Texas completely bomb.

A Duck wrote:

Naw, I just don't have faith in Manzano...he throws in a clunker too often.

This is what worries me. I like Manzano and admire his performances on the US stage when it matters, but his performances on the world stage leave something to be desired. I hope we get three guys who'll bring it in London as well as Eugene.