I saw this interview from last year with Hermans on Flotrack where he talks about big improvements from Bekele in very little time. I think that interview was right after the WC and right before Zurich/Brussels (?) so he proved to be right. Even Hermans doesn't know why he can't improve that much and that little time but obviousy - he can.
Counting Bekele out is the biggest mistake one can make in pro T&F.
remember that Bekele just doesn't lose at 10k. As in, he's never crossed the finish line in less than 1st place in a 10k in his life.
You can count the WC last year as a "loss" but he was still coming back from injury. DNF is not second place.
alfonz juck tweeted oslo the ethiopian trials at 5k. https://twitter.com/#!/emenews
Until the race is over & he doesn't cross the line first, he's still the favorite. You have to kill the king if you want to be the king.
categorically wrote:
remember that Bekele just doesn't lose at 10k. As in, he's never crossed the finish line in less than 1st place in a 10k in his life.
You can count the WC last year as a "loss" but he was still coming back from injury. DNF is not second place.
That's right. It is also not third place, fourth place or fifth place. Indeed, it is far worse than all finishing places.
Just remember Deribe Merga. Dude has a fool-proof strategy for placing top 3 IN EVERY SINGLE RACE.
Kb has a better shot than Rupp. Case Closed
I love this thread. It is silly to not think he will win. The only person who could beat his Farah. That's it. There's just no way Rupp can stay with him and I'm a (slight) Rupp fan.
What bugs me more is the way Rupp is racing. He tries to wait until the last lap to kick with these guys, but he'll never be able to close over the last 300 to medal, he MUST make a move with at least 1k to go. He may be "fast" but he is not "quick." There is a huge difference.
KB could put in a 11 second 100m during a race a gap the field and other Africans could do this. Rupp simply is not quick enough to do this and by the time us "white people" get up to speed they are already gone. It's just the way it is. There is no racism involved. We just are not quick like they are. End of story.
So, Rupp, move with a mile to go at the Olympics and you'll have a shot at a medal. You have the fitness, just go for it!
I think it depends on how the 10K in the Olympics is run. If it is a fast race with people sharing the work, KB could get beat becsuse maybe he will not be in top shape. If it is slower and tactical, lookout for him. He will win again. I think the only chance the others have is to push the pace and hope he is not in top shape or injured.
Don't know what to expect from Bekele.
If I had to pick yes or no on whether he wins at the Olympics I would have to say no right now.
He can certainly suprise and get fit quickly like the Brussells race last year.
But that is all we have over the last three years now.
If Bekele remains healthy, he will win 10k gold. Bekele is being very careful right now in training and racing so as not to re-aggravate injury. By August, Bekele will be ready to roll. Again, assuming he avoids injury.
My official prediction is that Bekele will start pushing from a mile out in the 10k final and Farah's ass will be handed to him on a platter.
To the original poster I don't think he's sandbagging or holding back at all. I think he's taking a while to get into racing form. At his level if you don't race consistently for a couple years its going to take a while to get back and compete. By the the time the Olympics roll around he'll probably be in great shape and in contention to win in London. However, he certainly won't be the overwhelming favorite he used to be.
Ye maybe but i would say for sure it will be bekele or farah for gold whichever doesn't win will get a medal and the third medal will be somone else maybe tariku or rupp
I think Bekele is a slight favorite for gold in the 10k with the way he popped the WL 10k last season without any other races. He isn't the clear 100% lock he was in 2008, but a 13:01 for Bekele could be 26:40 while to get to 26:40, Farah, might need to be in 12:51 shape... which he might be in. I'm talking right now. Of course, both Farah and Bekele will be in better shape by August.
lydiard=genius
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Letsrun.com Screen Name Hall of Fame
For anyone discounting Rupp...
Like Bekele, he too is better at 10k then 5k. As Rupp drops down in distance, he definitely isn't as competitive. Given that, his 12:58 is very impressive. Rupp could be in 26:35 shape right by the time the Olympics roll around.
I could very well see Farah- Gold (home crowd advantage, don't forget), Rupp- Silver, KB- Bronze in London.
I think this is just as likely as any other scenario.
The King Reigns! wrote:
So many people act like hes done and way out of it, yet he finished 2 seconds behind Rupp and was closing . . .
I was sitting halfway down the home straight. Rupp was closing on Koech and putting rubber between him and Bekele.
oh come on wrote:
What bugs me more is the way Rupp is racing. He tries to wait until the last lap to kick with these guys, but he'll never be able to close over the last 300 to medal, he MUST make a move with at least 1k to go. He may be "fast" but he is not "quick." There is a huge difference.
So, Rupp, move with a mile to go at the Olympics and you'll have a shot at a medal. You have the fitness, just go for it!
Rupp moved with 700m to go, caught Farah and forced his hand with 600m to go. Considering he was on pace for a new level of performance against a world class field at 5,000m I thought that was a great compromise between pushing from far enough out and not blowing up. If the Olympic 10,000m is any slower than 27:00 pace it seems logical that he'll move with 1,000m - 1,600m left.
I thought I was the only one who noticed that. Rupp faded a bit from 200 out to 100 out, and I thought he was done, but he kept pressing and in the last 100, definitely made up ground on Koech.
I was really impressed that he kept pushing. I don't know if it was racing grit or that he knew he had to keep pushing through to get sub 13:00... but Rupp showed strength and determination that I have not seen out of him before.
Rupp is the man. Don't know how a distance fan in this country couldn't like him.
Separately, what happened to Teg? He completely imploded. I would have thought he could hang on and run 13:05 or so... but he tried and was completely outclassed.
Finally, Rupp talking about racing fast versus for wins was a bit too self gratifying. When Solinsky ran his string of sub 13:00s, he was always in it for the win. Never got it, but he was racing up there like he belonged.
I wonder if we'll ever have all of our best competing at their best in the same year? Rupp, Ritz, Solinsky and Teg could all realistically be sub 13:00/27:00 guys in the same season, yet I don't think that has happened yet, right?
The King Reigns! wrote:
So many people act like hes done and way out of it, yet he finished 2 seconds behind Rupp and was closing . . .
Remember Last year when he showed up at worlds and was fat and out of shape. Then, weeks later he freaking popped a world leading time in the 10k, while handily beating Rupp? And from what I understand, hes been healthy since that and now will have a full year of healthy training under his belt by the olympics since that race. The dude has TWO MONTHS. I see two possibilities right now.
1. Bekele is Sandbagging races, so as to not push the envelope and get injured.
2. Hes heavily in training and yet to do specific work, knowing he can very quickly round into form, which he will.
Bekele will not disappoint. Farah will give him a good run, but I suspect that Bekele will handle him in the end.
Bekele has not had a full year of healthy training under his belt, he got hurt again after his WL 10k. Thus, this is even more worrysome for the other competitors since he is just getting training under his belt again and already improving rapidly. Assuming he stays healthy until the Olympics, he should contend for medals in both the 5k and 10k.