Missouri River Runner wrote:
He needs to reevaluate. Watching him go through the last few months has been like watching a slow train wreck.
i'm just going off the top of my head, but in the last seven weeks i believe he has gone from 28:21 in perfect conditions to 27:50 in the heat... that, combined with the 13:14 at oxy make me think that he'll definitely be in shape to hit the standard at the trials...
Why does he necessarily have to run the A standard at Pre? Can't he finish in the top 3, then get the standard sometime between then and the Olympics? It would be far from ideal, but from strictly a rules standpoint it would get him to the Olympics. Or so I thought.
Ritz, postrace, on Twitter:
"Tough race, didn't feel good. Very hot and humid but c'est la vie! 80 in May in Holland, who'd of thought. Watering the track was a mistake! Made it feel like a steam room. Happy to be training well though and back to Park City to get fit and ready for four weeks from now, what to do 5k or 10k? Hmmm..."
That's gotta be longer than 140 characters
ryan foreman wrote:
Why does he necessarily have to run the A standard at Pre? Can't he finish in the top 3, then get the standard sometime between then and the Olympics? It would be far from ideal, but from strictly a rules standpoint it would get him to the Olympics. Or so I thought.
NO CHASING THE STANDARD AFTER THE TRIALS!!!
That's three tweets smashed together. I felt like it was wasn't important to delineate the breaks.
It doesn't matter, if you are not in at least 27 flat shape, you have zero chance of being in the top 7-8 at the Oympics.
I'd say there is a 90% chance Rupp and Ritz will share the lead at the Olympic trials to ensure that the pace will hit the "A" standard. The two are teamates and with Rupp as the clear class of the field, it is in his interest to ensure the pace is honest to diminish the chances of a catastrophe on the last lap that could knock him off the team.
If Ritz can't run the "A" standard from help with Rupp at the trials then he doesn't really deserve to be on the team.
Given where he was after Houston and New York, and I don't anyone was reasonably expecting him to be in 27 flat shape today.
From what I could tell, the weather cost the runners in the neighborhood of 20-25 seconds today. Under ideal conditions, I think it's safe to say that Ritz is in 27:35 shape right now. Maybe 27:30.
broken arrow wrote:
It doesn't matter, if you are not in at least 27 flat shape, you have zero chance of being in the top 7-8 at the Oympics.
Really, last year's champion has never run sub 27. Ritz was 6th in 2009 when he ran his PR of 27:22. Not to mention Ritz could run sub 27. His 12:56, 60:00, and two 26:40 training partners are indicators of that. 27:50 is not his current fitness. I'm sure he could have run much faster if he weren't only focused on the standard (and he shouldn't have only be focused on the standard)
Ritz needs to prioritize his "learning". Who'd of thought?
Oddly he nailed c'est la vie.
Ritz is among a hand-full of sub 13:00 5k American ruunners. He will simply waste his time in the 10k and end up with a 12th place Olympic finish. Knowing how Ritz's career has gone he will probably try to run the 10k standard, get hurt and be out for 6 months.
If Ritz does choose the 10k at the OTs, he will not be the only person trying to run the standard and qualify. There will be 5-7 guys in the race with the Olympic A and 17-19 without it. Of the guys without, there are 8-9 who have a realistic chance of making the Olympic A.
The problem for all the guys without the A, will be that they have to be aggressive early. Who is going to sacrifice them self to lead? Will they trade laps?
In any case, the guys with the A, several of whom are much better then the guys without, can sit on the lead group and relax and then go with a mile left. This is going to make it very difficult for guys without the Olympic A, including Ritz to make top 3.
Poster above is spot on... This will be the quickest 10000 trials for the USA ever; pending sub 70 weather.
6-8 guys will be sub 28 here.
broken arrow wrote:
It doesn't matter, if you are not in at least 27 flat shape, you have zero chance of being in the top 7-8 at the Oympics.
I assume you're applying this equally to all the Ethiopians who failed to run 27-flat in Hengelo.
I was there wrote:
broken arrow wrote:It doesn't matter, if you are not in at least 27 flat shape, you have zero chance of being in the top 7-8 at the Oympics.
I assume you're applying this equally to all the Ethiopians who failed to run 27-flat in Hengelo.
Exactly. It really wasnt a bad day for Ritz. They were all slower because of the heat. He is definitely headed in the right direction.
Lets talk about this more. His run today gave him the Oly b-standard. Lets say he makes the team , does not get the a-standard , two other that make the team have a -standard as well. Others have the a-standard but do not make the team , who goes to the games ? Does the b-standard and making the team trump a-standard and not making the team ??
jcisidmim wrote:
If Ritz does choose the 10k at the OTs, he will not be the only person trying to run the standard and qualify. There will be 5-7 guys in the race with the Olympic A and 17-19 without it. Of the guys without, there are 8-9 who have a realistic chance of making the Olympic A.
The problem for all the guys without the A, will be that they have to be aggressive early. Who is going to sacrifice them self to lead? Will they trade laps?
In any case, the guys with the A, several of whom are much better then the guys without, can sit on the lead group and relax and then go with a mile left. This is going to make it very difficult for guys without the Olympic A, including Ritz to make top 3.
Ritz's is living in a fool’s paradise if he going to get an Olympic medal in the 10k. He doesn't even have the A standard. There are a half dozen Americans that are faster right now. He should run the 5k where he at least has a chance of making the finals. What was the point of him breaking 13:00 for the 5000 if he is going to squander his talents in the wrong event?
regarding "fool's paradise" Ritz, with non-world class closing speed, can't make the US 5K team, unless a few top guys get tangled up late and hit the pavement in the trials.
He only can make the team in the 10K if he goes sub 27:30 if the weather is bearable, however this will only get him a chance at top 10 in in the Olympics. Its not about a medal for Ritz, its about an Olympic appearance and the sponsor money and building that resume that he gets from going to the Olympics IMHO
Can someone show me how the qualifying format works at the trials? I thought if Ritz has the B and 2 other A\'s qualify...he\'s good?