answer this: webb, andrews, centro, wheating, lopez, leo are together with 400 to go at oly trials 1500

You idiots are forgetting what I consider one of the favorites: David Torrence. He's in incredible shape. Since last years 5th ave mile he's asserted himself as one of the best runners in the country. I think the team will be Lomong, torrence, manzano.

Wheating and his coach havent realized that his best event is the 800. Brown won't be sharp enough. Webb unfortunately won't make the final. Centro might be hurt. Ulrey hasn't been a threat in a while. McNamara and Heath might surprise.

Haha, YO (super cereal) wrote:

Who qualifies?

I say webb, centro, lopez.

I'd go with Centro and Lopez, but probably not Webb.

I like Webb but he is a rhythm runner (time trialer) he has speed but not wheels. So at the end of a reasonably paced race, Webb seems to have no "extra gear". That is what will kill him. he has had a few races in the past where he has shown speed at the end, but that was 5 years ago. Unfortunately, Webb is a great runner not a great racer.

If Andrews runs, he is likely to squeak in. I don't think Wheating can pull it together in time for the trials. Leo is SUCH a wildcard.

So, my order is Lopez, Centro and Leo (Andrews if he runs).

Lomong, Wheating, Webb.

Old School Coach wrote:

If Webb is with the pack with 400 to go, then he wins easily. Remember, he's got a 46 400 PR under his belt. The rest of them don't.

He was there at the last Olympic trials, didn't help him then. Webb doesn't belong with these other runners yet, really neither does Wheating.

IMO if it's an honest pace (3:38-40) -

Centro

Lopez

Leo either finishes here or DFL

Andrews

Then after Torrence, Brown, etc. Webb and Wheating come in (until they prove me otherwise, which I sincerely hope they do)

1. Webb

2. Webb

3. Webb

No one else matters.

Chances are, they will be all together with 400m to go.

That's usually how the race goes.

Here's 2008:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxToivISqvI

It looks like Webb was afraid of lane one.

Probably just wanted to spot the field some distance.

I know there are a ton of scenarios which can play out, but I'll go with Wheating, Lamong and Centro in no specific order.

Andrews went from last to .12 from first in the last lap with a 53.5 and you guys don't think he'll make the team?

After watching what Andrews did at Oxy, you have to say that he can run 3:30 this year and he is a lock for the team if he runs and stays in range with 300 to go. Wheating would be a lock if he were fully healthy and in shape. He's rounding into form with a month to go. Centro is a lock, if healthy. Webb will probably ensure that the pace is reasonable, in which case the best should go through, but he does not look like he will have the closing speed necessary. Who knows with him? It would be exciting for him to get back to his 2007 form when he could close with the best of them. Manzano has always risen to the occasion at nationals but this is the toughest field yet even without Lagat, and Lomong looks to go in the 5000m. So, I'll go with Centro 1, Andrews 2, and Wheating 3. No American can kick with Centro, not even Lagat. Torrence, possibly Symmonds, Russell Brown, Webb, Merber, and others will fill out a great field but only three can go.

My guess is that Webb has purposefully been holding back in the all the races we've seen this year. He is training through all the races and DEFINITELY isn't race sharp. He looks flat like pancake. My bet is he's running more mileage than anyone else and once he backs off and starts the speed workouts, we are going to see him kick like he did the year he blew Lagat away over the final 50m at Hayward.

In all of his 2012 races, Webb simply maintains form and powers through the final lap. Doesn't speed up, but doesn't slow down either.

He can EASILY achieve full-tilt-sprint-like shape in 4 weeks. He knows this.

He has EASILY got the strength this season to make the rounds.

Andrews passed Webb at OXY with 180m to go to run 334. Webb actually looked like he slowed a bit when Andrews passed him. Once Webb starts working on speed, he's EASILY going to cover that kind of move. Andrews can't run 334 after several rounds. He doesn't have the mileage base.

Webb ran 1348 in flats shortly after a 1500 in 339-40ish.

He's EASILY got 1320 in the tank right now. And with 3 weeks speed training he's going to bust 334 at the trials to make top 3.

MY PICKS:

1. Centro

2. Lomong

3. Webb

The real issue is that Webb can't sustain peaks very well, so if he makes the team his coach will no doubt return him to 5k work until the Olympics.

Vigilante knows how to peak his runners, I have no doubts he'll succeed with Webb.

I rather like the early pictures we've seen of Webb hobbling along like a crotchety old timer with no bounce. And he hit 337.2 like that. He could still barely break 1:50 for the 800...

A few fast 200 and 400 workouts will completely change all that, not to mention a big decrease in the 80-90 miles/week he's hitting currently.

He'll get the bounce back and run real fast at the trials. Wait and see.

Wheating then Centro then Lomong no buddy has a better kick then Andrew Wheating nobody

Why is everyone using last names except for Lomong's?

I mean, Wheating, Centro, Lopez??

This got fixed mostly on the second page of the thread but it's kind of weird.

If the pace:

is 3:50 = Centro, Andrews, Lopez, Leo

is 3:33 = - Centro, Leo, Wheating

I am absolutely in LOVE with Centro but Andrews could get him if the pace is slow.

Quick pace, Centro has the win for sure- Webb runs well in fast paced races, so perhaps he could be in the mix.

German Fernandez!!!!

I haven't been paying close enough attention, what has Lomong done this season after Payton Jordan?

Manzano

Andrews

Centrowitz

I don't think Lomong will run the 1500m; Wheating really hasn't looked very good; Webb's finishing speed isn't really there, yet. I doubt Andrews runs the 1500m as well.

I've always been a Webb fan and I hope to see him do well.

He's certainly looking fit, as everyone's mentioned. And his kick is getting slightly better. He didn't get dropped quite as bad at Oxy as he did at Stanford, and he was racing against better kickers. He's rounding into shape.

That said, his last 300 especially is still leaving something to be desired. It appears that he's been holding back on speedwork, and is running mostly off strength. 3:38/13:49 and 1:51 and 3:37 season bests speak to that. It appears he's been racing tired while running high mileage, and possibly not even kicking all out on the last lap. We'd all like to believe that Vig and he have this master plan and that he'll be developing the speed over the next month and will show up at the trials with a big kick. It's a popular theory and I hope it's true.

However, it's also just as likely that the lack of speed development is unintentional. Or that they've been holding back from speed to be cautious to avoid a specific injury in a sensitive area. That he hasn't laid it all out in the last 200 to avoid hurting himself. When it gets to be the last few weeks before the trials, they'll have to roll the dice and sharpen up. Hopefully that results in a fast and fit Webb at the trials, not an injured one.

We'll see which one turns out to be true. I certainly would love to see him do well. I was a HS class of '01 guy and Webb's been one of my running heroes since I was 17, despite the highs and lows. I would love to see him make the team.

But I worry that we'll see something similar to the '08 trials. He could sharpen up quite a bit in the next month, and develop a decent kick. A kick good enough to beat most of the field. But not quite good enough to beat the best kickers. I can't see him in the next month sharpening up enough to beat guys like Centro, Manzano, Lomong, Torrence, Andrews (who knows if he's running the 1500) or Wheating (who knows what shape he'll be in) at their best. When they're on, several of those guys have very lethal kicks. Webb could have a fantastic race and still finish 4th or 5th again.

His best bet would be to throw down with about 700 left like he did in '04. He didn't really need to do it back then, but now he would. However he hasn't shown any indication he'll be able to do that. Maybe he can...

I see Webb getting better...but if those 6 are there at 400 to go, plus Torrence...I have a hard time seeing 2012 Webb in the top 3. He probably wouldn't get last, but not in the top 3.

I'd love it if he proves me wrong. I hope he does. But whether he makes it or not, if he stays healthy, I would not be surprised to see him run 3:33 in August or September. A little bit of Adam Goucher style vengeance if he can have the fastest American time of the year.