Lets get serious for a minute: Cam Levins at the Olympics

Trollist wrote:

They'll announce a newer, stricter drug testing policy and Rupp will end up sucking it up just like last time.

Good choice of name. "Last time", if you mean last Olympics, Rupp ran what was then the fastest 10,000m ever by an American in a championship race, a few seconds off his then-PR. Last Worlds, he finished 7th in 27:26. Hardly sucking it up, by any reasonable standard. The kick just wasn't there, but it's much harder to kick against a field of elite Africans than to bury NCAA or US runners off one's tempo pace.

Wait. Why is everyone predicting how Cam will finish in the Olympic final? Doesn't he need to QUALIFY for the Olympics first? Dude looks strong, but there is no guarantee he'll even make the 10,000m team. Not experienced enough.

And in his honor we shall rename our great country CAMADA!

Land of ice hockey and mini fros!!

I thought Payton Jordan virtually was the trials for the Canadian 10,000M team. I recall that Canada didn't have a formal trial meet like we have in the U.S. but maybe I'm thinking of another country.

i kinda like running wrote:

Wait. Why is everyone predicting how Cam will finish in the Olympic final? Doesn't he need to QUALIFY for the Olympics first? Dude looks strong, but there is no guarantee he'll even make the 10,000m team. Not experienced enough.

As far as ANYONE from North America medaling in London @ any event 800 and up . . . I'll believe it when I see it. Top 5 is not completely unlrealistic if all goes well for Levins. I would not bet on it though.

Having said that, at least we have something to talk about with guys like Centro, Rupp and Levins. We are certainly on the uptick.

I think the biggest roadblock for Levins is himself. Namely that he apparently planned his training to run at a high level at this point of the year. Probably his whole goal was was to win NCAAs this year and anything after is a bonus. No way does he sustain this level through to the Olympics. And I really hope he doesn't get injured yet it wouldn't surprise me at all if he does.

But he's running at a damn high level right now. He's approaching Rupp level of running.

Canada doesn't have trials.

First off, Levins is CANADIAN to all those idiots who think he is running the US trials 10k. He has basically already made the Canadian team...he will run the 5k/ 10k at the Canadian trials, and he must come top 3. Barring injury this is a certainty, as he will only have to basically jog the events....second, if he runs both events at the Olympics, then the question is IF he runs the 10k (the first event) and IF it goes slow--then he has a shot at top 8. If it goes fast--well, top 10-12 is more likely. The question is if he has peaked now, or if he is racing well inside himself and can continue his progress--who knows? The kid is only 23....BUT if he does run the 5k at the Olympics, I do think he has an amazing chance at making the finals. The heats will go slow, and I doubt Rupp or even Lagat could match the current Cam Levins in a slow race-kick down.

To clarify I wasn't saying that he is going to race the US OT. I was saying that there are at least 4 Americans who could beat him in a championship race.

In the 5k for instance:

-Lagat

-Rupp

-Lomong

-Solinksky

-Teg

-Ritz

....

In the 10k:

-Rupp

-Ritz

-Webb

-Solinksky

To think he could get top 5 at the Olympics is ludicrous

ryan foreman wrote:

I thought Payton Jordan virtually was the trials for the Canadian 10,000M team. I recall that Canada didn't have a formal trial meet like we have in the U.S. but maybe I'm thinking of another country.

You thought wrong.

There is a Canadian Trials meet.

You were thinking of another country.

Let us not forget that Levins has been running 150mpw, and didn't drop much the past two weeks when he ran at Stanford and Mt. Sac. I find it incredible that he was able to run the way he did two weeks in a row while still maintaining such high mileage. Just imagine when the Olympics roll around and he drops that mileage down and works on a little more speed what he'll be able to do. He already has a pretty lethal kick already, so who knows what he'll be capable of come London.

Ok, let's get serious. The odds are always against almost every single runner who is not one of the few true superstars of the sport, which Levins is not (yet). Forget the 5th place comparison; look at the 2008 results,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_the_2008_Summer_Olympics_-_Men%27s_10000_metres

: the 10k PR of 10th placer Boniface Toroitich Kiprop? 26:39. Now anything can happen; that's what makes racing exciting. But it's one thing to win Peyton Jordan and another to go against the big boys.

Having said that I think that people with gigantic bases are more likely to be able to sustain top form over the course of a long season, so I wouldn't anticipate like huge collapse by August for Cam. I wish him the best, and truly even to be on the world stage is an honor.

P.S. Go Bekele. I want to see him win the double gold this summer more than anything. He's the rocky balboa of our sport.

Aghast wrote:

To clarify I wasn't saying that he is going to race the US OT. I was saying that there are at least 4 Americans who could beat him in a championship race.

In the 5k for instance:

-Lagat

-Rupp

-Lomong

-Solinksky

-Teg

-Ritz

....

In the 10k:

-Rupp

-Ritz

-Webb

-Solinksky

To think he could get top 5 at the Olympics is ludicrous

lol at Webb in the 10k.

It's hard to say how Levins will do. It's unfair to compare his pr to Rupp's because the races were so different. Cam obviously ran for the win last weekend and had a ton left at the end. However, he's probably a few years away from making noise on the world stage. Could definitely see him as a guy who could grab a sneaky bronze in a few years.

Ok let's be real here... do you really think Rupp is going to be able to lead from tape to gun while letting better athletes than him draft? And run a 26:30? Good one! He ran 26:48 while being pulled to a pace and drafting, surely he won't be able to do that this year. Tadese has a faster 10K PR and more strength than Rupp (half-marathon WR) and ended up running 26:48 in a slow championship race. He tried to run the kick out of Bekele, it didn't work. Instead, Bekele pooped on him with 400 to go and ran a 53 while jogging the last 50.

it was more like a 56 last 400m, but that last 50 was definitely jogged.

Ignorant buffoon wrote:

Instead, Bekele pooped on him with 400 to go

And people think Merga has some dirty tactics!

Try beating Bekele:

2003 World Champs

10,000m 1st - 26:49

last 5000m - 12:57

last 400m - 55

last 200m - 25

ryan foreman wrote:

Wait. Why is everyone predicting how Cam will finish in the Olympic final? Doesn't he need to QUALIFY for the Olympics first? Dude looks strong, but there is no guarantee he'll even make the 10,000m team. Not experienced enough.

[/quote]

"Not experienced enough"? You clearly have no idea what you're talking about. He basically already has.

For all events except the 10,000 and marathon, there is a trials meet, and much like the US top 3 (who also have standard - Canadian "A+" standard, that is) are in. (That's simplifying the ridiculous Canadian process, but let's leave it at that for now.)

For the marathon, guys just chase standard - in theory selectors would choose the best top who have made A+ standard (like Kenya!), but this year it is exactly three, so they're in.

The 10,000 is run as its own trials race but not at the trials meet, and again it's basically top three (who also have standard). If Levins and Ahmed placed fourth and fifth at trials but were the only ones with standard, I don't know what Athletics Canada would do. (I doubt the athletes and coaches do, either!)

Betting against Levins in London would be very stupid, if you have a clue about the qualifying process.

A top Canadian coach (A Gardiner) said 2 years ago that Canada was a nation of throwers and sprinters. This enraged the Canadian distance runners. So far this year they've got 3 marathoners under 2:11 who are all going to the Olympics. After Payton Jordan, it is obvious Canada's got some great distance runners with Bairu, Ahmed and Levins all running well..

How about the women?

Sheila Reid

Megan Wright

Hillary Stellingworth

Malindi Elmore

Siphentes

And

Taylor Milne

Matt Brennan

Matt Hughs

Genest

Why don't they fire this guy?