newname wrote:
This will probably be his best shot at the Olympics as he will be 33 the next time round, which might be too old for the 1500.
Possibly, but Lagat was still putting together good 1500s at that age - Gold the year he turned 33 and Bronze two years later. He wasn't even focusing on the event as much then.
His 5K chances are WAY better than his 5000 chances.And his 1500 chances are better than his 5000 chances.
rojo wrote:
And that got me to thinking, is there any chance his speed gets him a medal in the Olympic 5k? Could his odds be better there than in the 5000?
pal hal wrote:
categorically wrote:In Olympic history only 4 people have earned a medal in two successive games in the 1500m.
Kip Keino
Seb Coe
El G
Lagat
If Willis medals again he will be elevating himself to this level.
without checking I know Fermin Cacho belongs to that list
Luigi Beccali (gold 1932, bronze 1936) is the only other one.
Willis 1500 PR of 3:31.79 = 1220 IAAF scoring table points, which equates to a 12:57.30 5k.
I don't give Willis that much chance of medaling again in the 1500, but if he does it will be an act of immense Olympic studliness. Some athletes are like that!
Against Lagat, Rupp, Derrick, and maybe Solinsky, could he even make the US team?
Against Lawi and Chris, could he even win NCAAs?
he has 3'31.79 from last year & an ancient 1'45.54 from '04
if he coud run those now
1'45.54 / 3'31.79 ->7'34.3 , 13'14.8
more realistically, round up his 1500 to 3'31.5 & assume 1'45.0 - 1'46.0 ability for current 800
1'45.0 - 1'46.0 / 3'31.5 ->
7'31.2 - 7'35.3
13'06.4 - 13'18.4
as long as he tries to run 5k off primarily 1500 training, i doubt he can go much below 13'10 ( & that assumes his endurance lasts "perfectly" to 5k off 1500 training - it usually doesn't )
a little below 13'10 in a "perfect" race/flat-out gun'to'tape isn't bringing much to the table ( albeit chances much better if pace is 13'20+ at the bell )
13:14.8 is the best your calculator can come up with?
oh well.
using an ancient 1'45.54pb
i'd be surprised if that is much changed though - 1'45 - 1'46 with 3'31.5 is quoted as more likely current ability ( hoping for his sake he's got 3'31.5 in him currently )
just pointing out that breaking 13'00 is surprisingly hard for current elite 1500 guys
even if you have 3'31.0 ability, a fast 800 with it indicates poor speed decay for over-distance & poorish times
3'31.0 with
1'44.0 ->7'37.3 , 13'25.5
1'44.5 ->7'35.3 , 13'19.5
1'45.0 ->7'33.2 , 13'13.6
1'45.5 ->7'31.1 , 13'07.6
1'46.0 ->7'29.1 , 13'01.6
an extreme example is komen who had a reported 1'46tt prior to his 7'20
assuming 3'29 at the time :
1'46.0 / 3'29->7'20.6 , 12'42.2
close enough
it is damn hard for 1500 guys to excel at 5k clockings - you really do need to bring some exceptional 1500 ability to the table & do it off slowish 800s...
willis can medal in the 1500 again - if training keeps going well, if he gets through the heats comfortably and he runs his best on the day.
for the 5k, willis will be in a world of trouble = a massive toothache - where the last 2K will probably go in 5 minutes with a 54 or better last lap.
back in the day you could kind of fake it and do the 5000 without too much specific training, now, forget it.
that is unless you are otherworldly like lagat or elg.
lagat, despite his all-time great record is under-rated.
with a bit more training volume and a bit more of el-g's "vitamins", he'd have run 3:24 1500m.
longjack,
It's funny you mention ElG's "vitamins", yet they never provided a positive drug test like Lagat's "EPO."
what do you make of Webb's 1:43 (high) and 3:46 (high)
times?
He is already thinking about 2016 when the 2012 Games haven't even happened yet? What is he thinking. Also, if he thinks 13:10 is going to get him a medal he is sadly mistaken. Stick to the 1500.
I think he can go under 13:10, and that his chances in the 5k may actually be better in the 5k than the 1500m. In a tactical 5k, who knows? He's a pretty good tactician. Unfortunately, his chances in either are not high.
coach d wrote:
Against Lagat, Rupp, Derrick, and maybe Solinsky, could he even make the US team?
Against Lawi and Chris, could he even win NCAAs?
Coach , Im with you , I would bet he does not get to the Oly final.
It would be one thing if he had run a number of world class 5k's etc.
ggg wrote:what do you make of Webb's 1:43 (high) and 3:46 (high) times?
you have to remember he concentrated on shorter distances that year
rounding to nearest 0.5s,
1'43.5 / 3'46.5 ->7'32.6 , 13'15.9 , 28'24.5
that's why i reckon he is most talented middle distance guy since hicham - he ran 27'34 ( a gloried training run ) the previous year when concentrating on longer distances
if he'd managed to combine anywhere close to 1'43 speed & 27'30 endurance for '08, he wouda been in low/mid-3'28 shape !
He also took EPO.
Back to Willis - if he concerntrates on the 5000m his chances of qualifying are extremely high. He is a 3.31 5000m guy that runs plenty of mileage and his current PR, which he is right was set in less than ideal conditions, is ony 7 seconds off the standard.
As for medals, the 1500m is BY FAR AND AWAY his best chance of back to back medalling. There are no clear cut studs in the 1500 (compared with the El G era) - don"t even try and convince me Kiprop is way ahead of everyone else because he isnt - but the 5000m is a different proposition having to deal with race hardened 5000m vets like Lagat, Farah, Soi and maybe even Bekele - who knows.
Chances?
a) 90% provided he actually is serious
b) 2% - always a chance main contenders hit the floor or some other miracle
c) 25% - it's still tough to make a final at the Olympics - even for Willis - and there will be no shortage of hungry guys. I would say the highest odds for anyone sit at maybe 60%
Chances ?
Is that a 90% of medaling in the 5k if he is serious ?
Im thinking he will make the 1500 final , maybe crack the top 5.
5k will be loaded in London.
Lets look at history and what he has done in Championship racing in the last 4 years and big meets with international competition.
1) He actually breaks 13:10 in the 5k this year? 30%
2) He medals in the 5k at the Olympics in 2012? 0%
3) He medals in the 1,500 at the Olympic in 2012? 25%