"Galen Rupp won't concede anything when he takes on Bernard Lagat"

I'm not really convinced Galen Rupp has "more strength" than Lagat. He probably does more 10k specific training, but if Lagat wanted to he could probably break the 10k AR. Anything 5k or lower (which is what Lagat trains for), Lagat is better at the moment. Of course things will change at some point, but I don't think Rupp will beat Lagat before he retires in 2013. Would love to see him prove me wrong though.

My intentions have somehow been misconstrued. My comment was one of admiration.

the BRObius strip wrote:

I am curious how their two kicks stack up. I would not automatically give the advantage to Lagat.

You wouldn't? I would, and...

the BRObius strip wrote:I think Lagat will come in with one strategy: sit and then kick the last lap.

.... so does Lagat. If it is a truly tactical kicker's race, Lagat wins (unless there is something seriously wrong with him). Even if it isn't he probably wins, but he DEFINITELY wins if it is a true kicker's race.

rupp in the past was always in excessive oxygen debt at the end of fast races and could not rip off the big kick.

now if rupp exceeds lagat in aerobic ability then lagat is the one who will not be able to kick big. and then the race is a toss up.

nay sayers did not expect a 26:4x 10k from rupp, nor a 809 2 mile, indoor and negative splits at that, nor the 10.9 100m with flying start.

sure lagat is still the favorite but it is just about time to change the guard.

longjack wrote:

rupp in the past was always in excessive oxygen debt at the end of fast races and could not rip off the big kick.

now if rupp exceeds lagat in aerobic ability then lagat is the one who will not be able to kick big. and then the race is a toss up.

nay sayers did not expect a 26:4x 10k from rupp, nor a 809 2 mile, indoor and negative splits at that, nor the 10.9 100m with flying start.

sure lagat is still the favorite but it is just about time to change the guard.

Exactly. Lagats kick doesn't mean much if he is suffering more than Rupp when its 400m to go, but Lagat has shown great fitness with his AR so obviously it's unlikely that such a scenario will happen.

Sir Lance-alot wrote:

the BRObius strip wrote:

I am curious how their two kicks stack up. I would not automatically give the advantage to Lagat.

You wouldn't? I would, and...

the BRObius strip wrote:I think Lagat will come in with one strategy: sit and then kick the last lap.

.... so does Lagat. If it is a truly tactical kicker's race, Lagat wins (unless there is something seriously wrong with him). Even if it isn't he probably wins, but he DEFINITELY wins if it is a true kicker's race.

Hey all I'm saying is that Lagat can't do what he does forever. Obviously history is on his side, but eventually he is going to get beat at his own game by someone who you might not expect. Rupp has been on a roll, picking up right where he left off last season. Whereas guys like Solinsky, Teg, adn Webb tend to be very up and down with their greatness, Rupp's career has pretty much been one long crescendo. 8:09 solo last half is no joke (not sure why everyone is making a big deal about slight negative splits, everyone knows negative splits are the best way to run fast...). At the very least, I think it will be a very close race.

Does Lagat do any work at altitude? I know Rupp does. If Lagat stays at sea level all the time, that might work this particular race in rupp's favor.

One thing they should not try is let the pace lag and possibly give an opening to a third party in the last 400.

This could definitely be a classic race. What makes the event particularly interesting is that both runners are racing a distance that historically/statistically has not been their bread-and-butter event, although some would argue that since Lagat has a 7:29 3000 to his name that it is his 'bread-and-butter' even when really everyone knows that the majority of Lagat's career was focused on the 1500m/mile, becoming the second fastest 1500m runner ever (3:26.16). He's never going to come anywhere near that same accalade for the 3000m or 5000m. As for Rupp, he seems to become a more efficient runner the longer the distance he races (compare his 13:06 to his 26:48). And yes, even though Rupp has just run the AR for 2 miles indoors (8:09), which converts to somewhere around 7:33/34 for 3000m, everyone knows the 3000m is not his "bread-and-butter" event. That being clear now to any letsrun posters who want to gripe about small petty argument, I think that it will be interesting to see how both these runners fair at this distance.

So Rupp averages 61's for 2 miles while Lagat averaged 63's for 3.2 miles. Lagat also recently ran a 3:36 1500m, which is equivalent to 58/59 seconds per lap, but Rupp also ran a 3:57 mile in early February so he's capable of running 59's as well. I still think that Rupp's speed is getting faster each year and that he is closing the gap on Lagat. I think that if Rupp can stay relaxed, hang on to Lagat's shoulder, as opposed to letting Lagat hang on his shoulder, then Rupp should have a decent shot at beating him.

I give Lagat a 59% chance of winning

I give Rupp a 39% chance of winning

I give anybody else in the field a 2% chance of winning

Precious Roy wrote:

Kudos to both for going head to head indoors. Rupp could easily balk and say that he is focused on 10k and doesn't need to race anything below 5k. Lagat could head to Europe to go head to head with E. Africans. It is about time top talent raced head to head outside of the trials and Olympics.

These championships are for the US World Indoor team, so since they both apparently want to race at Worlds, they had to race here.

Rupp can use the experience from Worlds in Istanbul to prepare for London and Lagat loves to compete, so there meeting here doesn't surprise me.

nay sayers did not expect a 26:4x 10k from rupp, nor a 809 2 mile, indoor and negative splits at that, nor the 10.9 100m with flying start.[/quote]

for the record, i expected the 10.9 100m with flying start

rr_ne wrote:

nay sayers did not expect a 26:4x 10k from rupp, nor a 809 2 mile, indoor and negative splits at that, nor the 10.9 100m with flying start.

for the record, i expected the 10.9 100m with flying start[/quote]

In fact, I believe you and I were the ONLY ones who went out on a limb and posted BEFORE the fact that Rupp would run that 10.9 with a flying start, assuming that there were no issues with pollen, and assuming that Rupp remained upright, and assuming that the flying 100 wasn't all just a ploy to see if Solinsky might enter it, and assuming that the flying 100 course was Rupp-certified. We KNEW that the masked man could do it, and boy, he certainly did, or at least we're all lapping it up like dogs plagued with parched throats on a sultry Mississippi afternoon.

Sir Lance-alot wrote:

the BRObius strip wrote:

I am curious how their two kicks stack up. I would not automatically give the advantage to Lagat.

You wouldn't? I would, and...

the BRObius strip wrote:I think Lagat will come in with one strategy: sit and then kick the last lap.

.... so does Lagat. If it is a truly tactical kicker's race, Lagat wins (unless there is something seriously wrong with him). Even if it isn't he probably wins, but he DEFINITELY wins if it is a true kicker's race.

I disagree. I think the torch is going to get passed and I think Galen will win by 1-2s. Either way, I expect a hell of a race.

It is great for track fans that these guys have decided to go after each other during the indoor season. Maybe I am too conservative, but why are they doing this in an Olympic Year? I am hoping that they have decided to do this without a true taper. If not, they are looking at a three-peak year; indoor championships, Olympic Trials, and the Olympic Games.

I can see possible Legat motives: Not many more competitive years left and he already has had Olympic success. Why would Rupp take the bait?

Again, let me point out that I love seeing good races any time. I just question the wisdom of putting so much energy into seemingly "important" races in a year when there really is only one truly "important" race.

I was at this race last year. Rupp had just taken the AR in the 5000m and my friends and I thought it might actually be a race. When Lagat moved at the bell it was over with immediacy. I'm a fan of Rupp, the guy is world class without question, but Lagat's kick is a force of freaking nature. If Rupp (or anyone else for that matter) is running to win he needs to attack two or three laps out.

PhySci wrote:

It is great for track fans that these guys have decided to go after each other during the indoor season. Maybe I am too conservative, but why are they doing this in an Olympic Year?

To the above, it's awesome they're going at it. It would be more awesome if Webb, Solinsky, Tegenkamp, Curtis, and others were in the race. It's a championship race. Guys don't have to be peaking their training necessarily but you'd think most professionals would be hungry for some championship racing especially in an Olympic year. Rupp wants it enough he's doubling back in the 1500. The kid knows what's up. The race is also going to be televised and both runners race for Nike, so there's that.

I'm not a world class runner or anything close to it, but I'm guessing you don't just go into hiding all year and turn it on at the Olympics. The best way to get used to racing is to race! Races like this help both Galen and Lagat get used to the pressure of a big matchup and used to racing the best. In the grad scheme of things, how draining is a tactical 3k anyways? Think of it like a dress rehearsal.

I'm not against racing at this point of the season. I am sure that others will disagree with me, but I doubt that the PR's are coming without some adjustments made to training schedules. I would expect heavy distance and strength-building schedules at this point with some racing to stay tactically sharp. I would only expect this to result in PR's for new professionals, not runners of Rupp's quality and experience. I think of runners like Nick Willis. In '08, any race before July was basically a training workout to try something out. Fast times were more of an accidental byproduct than a stated goal.

Lagat uses two 10-week prep schedules, with racing between. Two peaks. The question is, how much he wants to put on display now for Farah and Bekele? Everybody knows about his kick. The question is going to be, how hard of a pace (if Rupp himself wants to go hard and put that on display).