Can Kszczot threaten 1:41.01?

Kszczot seems to have the perfect build for indoors. I know he's run fast outdoors as well, but his low stature is a significant advantage when negotiating tight turns. Just my observation from the last meet I saw him run in.

he is small, small guys don't do as well outdoors in the 200-400-800.

Most of the top 10 in each event are 6ft+. Avg height is probably 6'1" or 6'2".

He sure is threatening the announcers with that last name.

1:41? Sub 3:30?? I don't think so, at least unless he makes big progression over this and the next season. But 1:42 in the summer could be possible. IAAF states his 400m PB as 'only' 47.00 but whatever. 1000m is 2:16.99, so not too bad. Should definitly try to run a 'fast' 1500m as well to work on endurance. In the Olympics he could win a surprise bronze.

LOLsef Stalin wrote:Whether or not Kszczot can run 1:41 is irrelevant, as the Olympic final will be won within the 1:43.5-1:44.5 range

rudy won african games in '10 in 1'42.8 at nairobi with a solo run

that is a low-1'42 at sea-level

if he's in '10 shape this year, you will need to run 1'42-flat to beat him

i suspect he will run a solo run from gun-to-tape as i'm not sure he'll have any other kenyans in the final to help him

LOLsef Stalin wrote:

Whether or not Kszczot can run 1:41 is irrelevant, as the Olympic final will be won within the 1:43.5-1:44.5 range.

You are a complete idiot, you know that? Why do you even try? This is like saying you don't need sub-13 shape to win the 5000, because the race is going to be won in around 13:00.

Let's take your 1:44 guess. That's 26 seconds per 200, of course.

Do you really think that if the race comes through 600 in 1:18, the guy who's running at his PR pace just to get there (Kszczot) is in the same position to kick as the guy (Rudisha) who's running 2 seconds per lap slower than his PR pace?

OF COURSE having a better ability at the distance matters, moron. Even you and your 19:00 5k would have an advantage against your 20:00 in buddies in a race that's won in 20:00, right?

And what are the heights of the second and third fastest guys ever?

bendiesel wrote:

he is small, small guys don't do as well outdoors in the 200-400-800.

Most of the top 10 in each event are 6ft+. Avg height is probably 6'1" or 6'2".

200

Michael Johnson 6'1"

Yohan Blake 6'0" (probably 5'11")

Usain Bolt 6'5"

avg: 6'2"

shortest fastest guy under 19.7 is Dix, followed by Gay and Gay is 5'11". Tall guys on avg.

400

MJ

Butch Reynolds 6'3"

Jeremy Wariner 6'0"

can't think of a guy shorter than 6'0" thats gone sub 44.2. Virtually impossible to be medal contender (44.4) at this distance under 6ft. There a 'few' examples but the avg is ridiculously tall. Probably the tallest event in Track.

Rudisha: 6'3"

Kipketer: 6'0"

Coe: 5'8"

avg: 5'11"

Generally tall guys even in the 800 only Coe is really the outlier. Coe had incredible speed, if Kszczot can run sub 46 I think he could run 1:41 especially since there is an active WR still in his prime, otherwise he should probably move up to the 1500 due to his stature. He is about Coe's size.

Short guys do not do well in 200 thru 800 though in general. Those are big man events.

no, only a perfect race and good luck can he beat rus-d or kaki at their best.

the aerobic ability is not there in contrast to kaki who surprised some last year at 1500.

kaki had a near 4 minute mile at 15 years old, so he had great natural aerobic ability, contrasting kszczot with 348 1500m as a grown man.

Go to the back of the class:

Wilson Kipketer = 1.72 meters = 5'7 3/4 "

Ksz is taller than both Coe and Kipketer.

I have seen Kipketer run. He is not 5'7" I would bet you a million dollars cash. He is at least 5'11". And he has the inseam of a man at least 6'3" which gets to the point, you can not run fast if your legs are short unless you have overwhelming speed for the distance.

Michael Johnson had the legs of a man 5'7" and that is your "tall man's" event! And of course, everyone knew that the best 100m men were around 5'10" until....

Height is irrelevant as long as one is from 5'0" to 6'6". Running has so many other variables that it is a non-factor within these bounds.

MJ did not have short legs. You sound like a short person trying to justify that you can be short and still run fast when in reality it is very unlikely.

Kszczot's PB for 400m was set in the rain (I have seen that race). The surface was wet and it wasn't mondo. He may be able to run under 46 seconds.

But don't think, that he can go under 3.40 for 1500m. It is not the way people train for 800m in Poland (except of Lewandowski). Training is mainly explosive power, speed and not so much endurance. It is very anaerobic. So we have very good 800m runners, but everything longer is very weak (In 5000m nobody went under 14 min in the last year). It is the influence of soviet training system - power and short intervals plus just very easy runs.

But Kszczot sometimes trains with Marcin Lewandowski and without doubt he is aerobically stronger than 2-3 years ago. So he may be very dangerous in 800m. The qouestion is - how will he run 3 races in 4 days in the Olympics.

not stupild wrote:

I have seen Kipketer run. He is not 5'7" I would bet you a million dollars cash. He is at least 5'11". And he has the inseam of a man at least 6'3" which gets to the point, you can not run fast if your legs are sholrt unless you have overwhelming speed for the distance.

You are right. The 1.72m given as kipketer's height on some sites is a nonsense. Probably his height when he was 17 or something! During his career his d.o.b was given as 1970 then 1972, so I take those sorts of stats with a pinch of salt.

Coe's height, since the late 70's has always been given as 1.76/1.77m, which is 5'9.5". I have seen photos of Coe and Kipketer standing together, and the kenyan is definitely an inch or two taller. El G's height is also often given as a lot smaller than he was. He was taller than both Coe and Kipketer.

The reason why the 800 is such a fascinating event is because height doesn't appear to have as much of an impact as most others. There have been as many great runners under 5'10" as above.

Good info. What are kszcots and lewandowskis mileage at different points in the year?

MJ had the shortest legs, relative to his height, of any world class runner. His turnover was incredible, and probably helped him keep from tying up the final 100m. As for being short, I am 6'0" with longer legs. I invoked Bolt in my examples to show that height is virtually irrelevant. Bolt v. MJ in a 200 is like two completely different species.

snurkle wrote:

MJ did not have short legs. You sound like a short person trying to justify that you can be short and still run fast when in reality it is very unlikely.

CollegeDude wrote:

Good info. What are kszcots and lewandowskis mileage at different points in the year?

Lewandowski have high milage, around 150k a week, sometimes even higher and near season a bit lower. It would be interesting to know if Kszots milage was at all similar.

the smartest letsrunner wrote:

LOLsef Stalin wrote:

Whether or not Kszczot can run 1:41 is irrelevant, as the Olympic final will be won within the 1:43.5-1:44.5 range.

You are a complete idiot, you know that? Why do you even try? This is like saying you don't need sub-13 shape to win the 5000, because the race is going to be won in around 13:00.

Let's take your 1:44 guess. That's 26 seconds per 200, of course.

Do you really think that if the race comes through 600 in 1:18, the guy who's running at his PR pace just to get there (Kszczot) is in the same position to kick as the guy (Rudisha) who's running 2 seconds per lap slower than his PR pace?

OF COURSE having a better ability at the distance matters, moron. Even you and your 19:00 5k would have an advantage against your 20:00 in buddies in a race that's won in 20:00, right?

This is an absolute beauty of a post - simply for the fact that the very scenario you believe to be implausible actually did happen when Nils Schumann (pr 1.44.84 at the time and later 1.44.16) kicked off a slow pace to win the Sydney 800m Olympic title against Wilson Kipketer (1.41.11) and a entire field with faster PR's then his (maybe Glody Dube was slower - not sure).

So it's hilarious that you call someone an idiot when obviously you have no idea what you are talking about. In an Olympic final when the pace is off ANYONE can win and who has the fastest PR goes straight out the window.