Nick & Mike are both likely going out hard, which is exciting. It's just Nick's style to go hard from the gun and Morgan's leg speed is better than about 15 athletes at the trials (women included) so expect him to want an honest pace. Both of these guys are capable of top 5, but there simply isn't room for them both to finish that high given the strength of the field.
Nick runs well when no one is watching with no pressure. He folds like a tent when it counts.
Nicks 2 fastest marathons have been marathons on a whim. San Diego on a short segment and Houston when his main role was that of a pacer. Nick wrote a blog prior to WC about being in the best shape of his life and that it was the most important race of his career and how important it was to be wearing the USA uniform.....2:24. He also said that same thing prior to Chicago when he felt he was in 2:09 shape.....2:18.
The trials are a high pressure situation and we are starting to hear that Nick's training is REALLY coming around.....???
By 1:05 I meant 1:05:xx, sorry for not being specific. Also, why wouldn't Luke want to take a shot to make the team? He has been at this a long time and this could be his last trials. I think he would regret not taking a shot at it. Luke has run 2:14, let's say he runs a 2 minute PR (I know that is a huge PR but not out of the realm of possibility) putting him at 2:12. Although not likely, a 2:12 could make the team. Only 4 guys in the race have actually run sub 2:12 during the qualifying period. I didn't say any of them were favorites, just that they are seriously trying to put themselves in contention. The point of the race is to earn a spot on the Olympic team! Heck, there are probably some 2:16-2:19 guys who also may think they have a shot... maybe a 0.001% chance, but that is still the point of lacing up and toeing the line at the Olympic Trials. If they wanted to run a "good" race or go for a PR, they can sign up for Chicago any year they want. This is the trials, why not? I do realize many guys will prefer to run a conservative race and finish as high up as possible, but not everyone.
My predictions:
Morgan will run 2:11:xx. People will say "where did THAT come from?", even though it was an obvious prediction for those paying attention to his development and races in the past few years. (One of the Hanson coaches said as much in a recent Runners' World article).
The third spot will be claimed with a 2:11:xx.
The only question is: how will that 60-seconds between 2:11 and 2:12 play out, and how many others will end up there.
Should be exciting.
I hope you are right but respectfully, I don't think you are. Could it happen, of course. His coach probably did say that and I would too if I were him, but unless some great workouts were produced to equate to such a time...it's just not likely. Although I don't see the race being a barn burner from the gun, I do see 3 guys breaking 2:11, if not more (weather permitting of course...no clue what the weather is going to be).
I don't see 15 guys running 2:12, not gonna happen. If MM goes 2:11 I will be the first guy to go to the Hanson store and congratulate him and admit being a huge doubter.
Yes, it should be exciting for sure and I am highly bummed it is not being televised.
All true and anything can happen. My take is just different than yours. I believe Luke to be a reasonable guy and I think he knows that 6 guys or more would have to have terrible days and he would have to have the race of his life. Possible, sure. Probably, no.
I've been at 3 trials and actually biked 2 of them (buffalo and columbus). Most guys who are running all out at 13 don't fight to stay with the leaders till do or die, they just don't. They slow up and hope for a few guys to fall back and in the process they finish higher. With that said, I was there when Ron Tabb and others dropped out in Buffalo and hung out under a tree until a bus came to pick them up. I hung with Bill Rodgers on my bike and then took a side street to get to the finish. Bill was alone at this point and caught Greg later on. I was there at the break with Eyestone, Spence and Bob K in Columbus. Within 1-2 miles it went from a pack to many survivors who went out the back door.
I wish it wasn't that way, but typically it is.
help is on the way wrote:
Mike reminds me of Clint Verran (never mind place, I am talking about time)
That sentence right there shows it all. Who cares about time? Morgan has BEATEN Nick 6 times. 6 times! Remember this when he beats him 7 times. And you better believe Hansons runners are consistently more prepared than the Gotcher/Arciniaga Mcmillan plan.
Please allow me to reiterate?
No clue on your knowledge of the field, what your pr's are, or what you truly understand about the sport, but...Ryan Hall is an animal and is not going to let the entire race go slow. If he can take it out at Boston he can take it out at the trials and no I didn't say right from the gun.
With the time being "honest" we do care about time and so will they. I did not argue the fact that Morgan has beaten him 6 times as it's a fact. What you are missing is we know that Nick "can" run at least 2:11:30. If he has a decent day then we know it's in him.
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Morgan has NEVER run that fast, hence it is not a sure thing for him to do so or with your thinking we can now make a blanket statement that every 2:15 marathoner can run 2:11 and that is just not true. Follow me?
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If Sage C runs 2:15 and is best is just breaking 2:17, can we now say that he should run 2:11? Why? Maybe he's a 2:15 marathoner at best as we all have different abilities, right?
I know a guy who ran 2:22 and trained his butt off. Why didn't he break 2:20? If he popped a 2:17 can we then say he's going to run 2:12 or so?
You nor I know what's going to happen for sure but I would bet on Nick to beat him. Beating him in the past has nothing to do with it as they are suppose to be running for a spot on the team and if Morgan runs 2:14 how is he going to make the team and beat Nick unless he has an awful day?
Yes, time does matter friend, believe it or not.
And Clint Verran got 5th place in a very slow marathon trials when we are considering depth in "that" time range. Clint was highly overrated and would have been a no name many years ago. Look at the time and place he ran in NY 4 years later and it won't be hard to figure out. He never ran 2:11, why? He's as good as Morgan is so what happened after ALL those marathons. Taking 5th in a week trial race doesn't mean anything and you certainly have to be smart enough to understand that running that time on Saturday is not getting you the place in got in Alabama. But, you have the right to disagree and that's fine with me.
Don't sleep on the Rhino!!
Drew Polley for President!!!
In all seriousness ex-hansons win easy.
Most importantly, who cares? None of them, ex or current, will cross the finish line in the top 3 spots, on the men's side of course:). Dumb thread.
elephant man wrote:
Most importantly, who cares? None of them, ex or current, will cross the finish line in the top 3 spots, on the men's side of course:). Dumb thread.
Nor are they expected to. 4 more years for the fellas which is the same thing I said about the women 4 years ago.
People seem to forget that Morgan ran 1:02:56 for a half (I think it was 2010). For a guy with no foot speed, that is a very solid time that would suggest a sub 2:12 is a definite possibility. He ran the 2:14 in Chicago in 70+ degree weather, messing his pants along the way. It was far from his best day. I'm not saying he will make the team, but I would not be surprised to see a 2:11 out of him, with 2:11 also being Nick's best time...
LRC girl wrote:
Is this true, though? I read a profile of Desiree Davilla and I thought it said something about her being engaged to a teammate.
http://www.runnersworld.com/cda/microsite/article/0,8029,s6-239-569--14169-10-1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8X9-10,00.htmlThat part is on the last page of the article, although I may have misread and maybe her fiance isn't on the team anymore, or was never actually on the team.
Sorry to get a little off topic here, but as far as I know Davila is engaged to Ryan Linden, a man who trains (or trained) with the Hansons project from time to time. So not a teammate.
mike morgan has never lossed to arciniaga in a race.
just saying. im a big fan of both guys
cougrunner wrote:
Drew Polley for President!!!
In all seriousness ex-hansons win easy.
if drew polley were president:
-fat people would be taxed by the pound. a team of analysts would develop a system similar to age grades to determine their fat bracket.
-new national parks: "lindgrens run," "johnson," "kamiak," "the coug," and "valhalla."
-vending machines would contain only raw vegetables and tea, dispensed in recycled, bpa-free containers.
-being in college would be the highest paying job in the country.
-new labor laws would mandate breaks for morning runs, mid-morning naps, lunch, and afternoon runs. a doctor's note confirming your participation in a beer 5k excuses any absence from work the next day.
-a would-be drunken sex scandal would be derailed by an inability to find the white house and an awkward high five to end the night.
-foreign relations would improve after a mass text to world leaders that says, ",smfo. upi str dp nrsiyogi;. i love you."
-the gaza strip would be awarded to the winner of an intense game of caps.
-professional football games would be played no later than 4pm est.
-those convicted in the great stroketrials of 2019 would be punished by being forced to watch the movie "prefontaine" on repeat until they give up the will to live.
-the washington monument would be torn down to make room for a giant sculpture of a shoe.
-sunday may be the holy day, but thursday is banjo day.
-the cabinet would consist of marshawn lynch, brett fah-ver, marcus trufant, ... wait, that's mr. president's fantasy team. and yes, they all have cabinet positions now.
all in all, i'm for it.
False. Short/Cut Course. That is a fact.
He did not run a sub 1:03. No one is forgetting anything. Recheck and get back to us.
help is on the way wrote:
What you are missing is we know that Nick "can" run at least 2:11:30. If he has a decent day then we know it's in him.
What you meant to say was that we know Nick can run at MOST 2:11:30. I see no indication that he can go faster.