I enjoyed that comment too. A dozen guys at 2:12! I would guess 4th place is 2:12.
Estimate of Top 3 times: 2:09, 2:10, 2:11
Sure, there could be some guys together late and maybe even top 3 under 2:10:30. But anyone else who tries to hang with that pace will drop dramatically and fall 1 min+ behind.
TrackCoach wrote:
Olympic Trails Marathon Recent Inside Information
....1. The talk is about is about Rupp, Ritz, Meb and Hall; there are 4 other athletes and/or their coaches who are on the record with being fully committed to making the team and having trained for going sub-2:10. Some comments being said are “the greatest shape in my life”, I am expecting a massive PR”.
This was really funny. Thank you.
see my post above. great minds think alike.
he is a troll/moron as nothing that he said is insider information and it only creates traffic for the site as we "need" to respond to such garbage. his original post should have been deleted. he knows no one, believe me, it's all garbage.
Ins #1, you are absolutely right. If i had a dollar for everytime i heard this......yeah, i'd be Buffett :)
inspector#1 wrote:
#1 I hear before virtually every race.
Blah, Blah, Blah
in frankfurt 2 months ago 22 ran under 2:12 and 14 ran under 2:10
a dozen under 2:12 is no longer that unusual.
TrackCoach wrote:
Olympic Trails Marathon Recent Inside Information
None of this is based on absolute facts, but I happen to have a conversation with 2 individuals who are closer to the matter than most of us.
1. The talk is about is about Rupp, Ritz, Meb and Hall; there are 4 other athletes and/or their coaches who are on the record with being fully committed to making the team and having trained for going sub-2:10. Some comments being said are “the greatest shape in my life”, I am expecting a massive PR”.
2. There is at least a 50/50 chance Rupp will either lead the race through 20 miles and drop out or pace Ritz all the way in; Rupp has no intentions of moving up to the marathon prior to the Olympics.
3. The race is likely to be the one of fastest ever on American soil, the race will likely be much faster than most people expect. It will not be run like a championship, the leaders don’t want to be in a foot race to the finish line to secure their spot.
If this post is real, I am nominating for dumbest post of the year......and it is January 6th. Olympic 'Trails' Marathon...haha.
1. Who the f*ck isn't 'fully committed to making the team those comments are real insider info. Honestly, you can't be serious.
2. A 50/50 chance between 2 things....are you an odds maker? Brilliant.
3. There are so many things wrong with this statement. 'Fastest ever on American soil.' and then you come back and say in terms of depth and breaking 2:12?!?! If 5 guys break 2:12 I will be shocked.
The most valuable commodity I know of is information. Wouldn't you agree on that?
You want one more chance? Then stop sending me information and start getting me some. Get dressed, I'll show you my charts.
--GG
douglas burke wrote:
in frankfurt 2 months ago 22 ran under 2:12 and 14 ran under 2:10
a dozen under 2:12 is no longer that unusual.
You are absolutely right except this is the US and all the participants are US citizens. I think first will be low 2:09. I think 2-3 will be within a minute of that, both in before 2:10.30. the pace will doom most of the rest of the pack with High 2:10 for 4th and 5th, and 2:11 for 6-9 So perhaps 8-9 under 2:12? Good for an all US race but not Frankfurt.
If long range forecasts mean anything (they don't), conditions may be ideal on Saturday. So far, it is looking like 40s with little wind. The course is generally very fast, although there are three easy over/under passes and a u-turn that will be hit three times on the loop course. Thus, runners will have a chance to run at their full potential.
I think there is a chance that a group of the top runners will try to hammer it. Too many runners will be in contention if the pace is 2:10. Hall will definitely be looking at 2:08, at least, and is certainly capable of 2:06. In theory, on their best day, Hall, Rupp, Ritz, Meb and Mo could all run between 2:06-08. Then, guys like Arciniaga, Gotcher, Hartmann and a few others could definitely run between 2:09-10 and maybe even scratch at 2:08. I know that once you are out of the top three, people think that runners will just cruise it in. However, if the pace is fast enough, runners will have every incentive to try to go sub 2:10 to increase their ability to get good appearance fees in Spring and Fall marathons.
Or, we could get the usual hyper-tactical racing where everyone jogs the first ten miles (except for a renagade Wardain type) and then fight hard from mile 16-20 and do a victory lap the last 4-6.
What does a sub 2:10 guy get as a fee from a Marathons Major these days?
what is the argument against having the trials as part of NY or Chicago? The race would be more representative of an olympic marathon and might produce a better team. Americans racing americans is poor prep for Americans vs Kenyans.
The timing is a little different - 9 months before the olympics rather than 7.
I suppose the right answer is that the USOC wants complete control over the trials process.
Would be fun to have 150 of the US' best marathoners on the line at NY though.
Deductively valid, but, as we all know, that means little...mmmmaahhhhaaahaha
CoachTrack wrote:
see my post above. great minds think alike.
he is a troll/moron as nothing that he said is insider information and it only creates traffic for the site as we "need" to respond to such garbage. his original post should have been deleted. he knows no one, believe me, it's all garbage.
Not a troll...perhaps my wording was less than perfect. I admit that my information is 3rd hand, it came from someone who got it from someone else and even that person is simple giving their opinion. However, this is not made up information; you should see an interview posted somewhere in the next couple of days pretty much saying the same things. So that I am clear, what I said was, the race will be fast with about a dozen athletes at or under 2:12. Not counting the 4-5 we all know about, there will be a large number of athletes racing with the 'intent' of making the team. And, this will not be Rupp's official marathon debut.
Btw, if you think my post was so outrageous that it should have been deleted, you must be new to Letsrun.
It's unusual for an American-only tactical race!
Sometimes I wonder if ROJO and WEJO have a dozen troll accounts and just get bored during the day and post crap like the OP.
socially semi- acceptable guy wrote:
What does a sub 2:10 guy get as a fee from a Marathons Major these days?
Depends what country they are from. Assuming equal times, an American is worth more than a Japanese, who is worth more than an African.
I'm agreeing. 2:12 on this course will look like maybe 15th place. Some of the minnesota guys say they're in 2:10 shape, and this course is better then the roads they've been running on. Lots of explosions will happen though, it's humid.
it will be fun to watch
Hall may want to run 1:04 for half,
but unbeknownst to you and me there is probably some kid in the field that says this is my chance for fame, glory and maybe a few seconds on national television.
You may see virtual unknowns running some insane 4:45, 4:50 early miles which will really string things out.
If Rupp wants to work as a pacer, he may find himself pacing a second or third group and be nowhere near the lead.
It will be fun to see how many press trucks, video cameraman motorcycles and bicycle escorts will be out there to try and keep track of everyone.
50 guys will go under 1:05:00 and then watch how many will drop, disappear or fade away between 13 miles and 30K.
There may be a lone wolf that will run a crazy first few miles, another that can last through 10K, someone else will take over at ten miles and then finally things will start to sort out past halfway, but there will be lots of variety and lots for NBC to cover and that doesn't take a "Trails" insider to see.
outsider on the sidelines wrote:
it will be fun to watch
Hall may want to run 1:04 for half,
but unbeknownst to you and me there is probably some kid in the field that says this is my chance for fame, glory and maybe a few seconds on national television. There will be lots of variety and lots for NBC to cover and that doesn't take a "Trails" insider to see.
Unfortunately none of that will be shown.
that's why I will be there in person
and the thousands that are running Chevron Houston
on Sunday the 15th are going to be thoroughly psyched
by the "live" show they see on Saturday
it will be a race they will talk about for a long time...
"you should have been there..."
Seriously? A lot of guys say they are in 2:10 shape and many of these guys have said it before. If you really think that 2:12 will be 15th place you are more delusional than the know it all OP. I heard the same thing before, and before, and before.
As for the OP who said wait till an interview comes out, who cares? It's going to say what? As was explained and of course you didn't respond to, who is going to run a MASSIVE pr? Buehler? Buehler? Buehler? I rest my case.
12 guys are not running 2:12 or faster.
Rupp is not pacing Dathan. Remember, there are actually other runners in the field and Dathan doesn't need pacing.
Your sources are made up or don't know what they are talking about.
Honestly, that was the dumbest post of 2012 and I predict it won't be topped any time soon.
Ba Bye!