Michael Johnson is mentally challenged

I think that Bolt could, reasonably, win the 400 at the Olympics if he has been training for it.

The 400 is not deep right now. He'd only have to be good enough to beat Merritt and James; he's probably already good enough to beat everybody else (unless Gay ran, that is).

I think that now is his best shot at Olympic 400m gold--weak field, Bolt is still young, 4 years is a very long time, weight can kill you in the 400m and it is easier to keep weight down when younger, and it is IMHO easier to display raw guts when younger, totally important in the last 80m straight of the 400m.

I also think that if he trained for the 400 now, he could have a shot at the WR. Why not? 43.18 is not stratospheric as far as WR's go. Butch Reynolds was awfully close. Given Bolt's relative performance in BOTH the 100 and 200, I think it is at least not UNreasonable to believe that he could get the record.

Plus, IMHO it is easier to retain interest in running 100 and 200 than it is in running 400. You can feel pain in the 400, but not in the 100, and in the 200 only if you are in bad shape. A fast 100 is fun; a fast 400 is not--and because of that, I think that Bolt's window for 400 excellence will be relatively narrow--that, combined with filling out muscularly as he gets older.

As for the LJ, the only reason that I think he should do it at some point will be because he has been eclipsed in the sprints. It WILL happen, and maybe he should think of some other challenge--he could always still run relay anchor and destroy everybody else.

As for the WR in the LJ, that would be seriously improbable, but maybe not impossible. LJ is very technical, believe it or not. Lewis and Powell were both tall, fast, thin, and dedicated to jumping technically well for many years.

Bolt? Tall, fast, but not thin, and not dedicated to technical excellence for years. But when you see lots of guys close to 9m, and a bunch of 9m fouls throughout history, it makes you believe that it is genuinely possible, the only remaining question is by whom.

I would not bet on Bolt ever setting the LJ-WR.

I would bet on him winning the 400 in London if he had been training for it this past year.

I would bet on him setting the 400 WR within a year from London if he had been training for it this past year, and if he had 2 injury-free 400m competition seasons.

I would not bet on him winning the 100m in London--but I wouldn't bet on anybody in that race, if Gay is healthy.

I would, however, bet on him winning the 200m in London, depending on the odds. Realistically, he's only got 1 guy to beat--Blake. Even a healthy Gay will be trailing, with Dix in the mix. Lemaitre is not likely to be in the picture. In an Olympic year, it will be a 2-man battle in the 200m, so it would depend on the odds--but, of course, the same would go for Blake. On recent history alone, I would have to go with Blake. He was literally in WR form last year, something that Bolt hasn't shown for several years.

Michael Johnson is challenged because all of his early predictions were wrong, and now he has swung the pendulum too far the other way. He was an excellent runner, but he's not a good analyst or commentator. He does a lot of after-the-fact "wow" pieces, and that is about the extent of it.

Sprint geezer

I think MJ is dead on with all of his predictions. You are assuming tyson gay to be back in top form and not Bolt whom said ahead of time 2010 was an off year and he went on to still run the fastest 100m of the year in 2011. Blake is a good sprinter but running rounds in both the 100m and 200m is something I haven't seen him do yet. Running just the 100m is very different from running both the 100 and 200m. Also he ran 19.2 once Bolt has run 19.2 and 19.19 after running rounds of the 100m and 200m. I think if tyson gay runs the 200m correctly he has a better chance but as long as he is blistering the curve the way he does and using all his energy he will never be able to win the 200m. He can run 19.5 against the U.S. sprinters but if he comes off the curve with Bolt and Blake they seem to know how to better conserve their energy in the curve for the straight.

As far as the 400m goes Bolt has run 30 pt for 300m and 19.19 for 200m. He has way more speed then MJ. If he does some more strength work he can break the 400m WR without a doubt, the question is, is he willing to do the work.Tyson gay opened the season up with a 44 one year so to think that Bolt can't run 43 low or 42 is insane.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

43.18 is not stratospheric as far as WR's go. Butch Reynolds was awfully close.

Let's put this in order.

First off, Buth Reynolds was the World Rercord holder at 43.29.

He smashed Lee Evan's 20 year old record of 43.86.

I thought Reynolds record would last at least 20-30 years.

Reynolds ran his record over 23 years ago (1988), and it has only been topped once.

Michael Johnson beat it late in his career (1999).

The third best 400 performer ever, Wariner, is still .27 behind the record.

The 400 record is not soft.

I think Bolt has the tools for it and has had the background training for it. But it would not be easy.

I didn't say the 400 WR was "soft", I said it was "not stratospheric"--that is, it is within reach, unlike say the women's sprint records.

And I don't recall ever having said that it would be "easy" for Bolt--it was Johnson who implied that.

I agree totally that Bolt has both the tools and the background training.

"You are assuming tyson gay to be back in top form"

Only when I'm talking about Gay--discounting Gay totally there are Blake, Powell, Dix, and Carter in the 100m, and Blake in the 200m. But yes, I'm assuming that Gay will be in good form. Sometimes time off can be a good thing.

"2010 was an off year and he went on to still run the fastest 100m of the year in 2011"

Bolt's 9.76(+1.3)in Brussels (9.82 corr)is only just as good as Blake's 9.82(+0.1) in Berlin (9.82 corr)--and Blake did that twice, running also a 9.82(0.0 in Zurich (9.83 corr), whereas Bolt's next best was a 9.85(+0.1) in Zagreb (9.86 corr). Bolt was only tied with Blake for the fastest 100m of 2011.

"Blake is a good sprinter but running rounds in both the 100m and 200m is something I haven't seen him do yet. Running just the 100m is very different from running both the 100 and 200m."

You are absolutely correct on both points, and ability to endure the rounds and scheduling may very well decide who will win. Bolt has demonstrated such ability, Blake has not--you are right, this should favor Bolt.

"I think if tyson gay runs the 200m correctly he has a better chance"

It's OK for you to assume that Gay will be back in top form, but not for me to assume the same? In any case, Blake is now far better at 200m than Gay has ever been. Blake ran the WR last summer, he just flaked out at the start--that is far better than Gay has ever done...FAR better. But I do agree that Gay will be a threat if he chooses to run the 200m.

As far as the 400 goes, Gay opened up once in 44.89...to START the season! Even Gay could go 43.high if he trained for it...and extrapolating from how Bolt kicks Gay's butt in the 200m, Bolt would run much faster than that. I agree that if he were to train for, and run the 400, NOW, that he would have a better-than-even shot at the WR within 2 years.

Johnson said 3 things regarding the 400: 1) Bolt would break the WR if he switched to the 400; 2) Bolt would run 42.xx if he switched to the 400; 3) Bolt could achieve (1) and (2) above if he switched to the 400 at any point in his career.

(1) is reasonable IMHO; (2) is questionable, and (3) is ridiculous.

Bolt has to do it soon. Just because MJ was fast later in his career, after training and running 400's for many years, does not indicate that Bolt would have the same trajectory. Bolt will get injured--mark my words. He is not Superman--he is very big for track, and will not have the longevity of somebody like a Collins. By the next Olympics, he'll be old, and my guess is that he will have filled out muscularly to some extent. He needs to do it now, while he has the energy to put in the time to get the fitness while keeping his weight down.

And as for MJ "putting money" only on Bolt in the 100 and 200, what precisely does that mean? It's anybody's guess, and typical of the gobbledygook that is so typical of MJ.

I will be the first one celebrating if Bolt pulls off the double--as Captain Picard once said, "Sometimes you just have to bow to the absurd."; but he will not win because MJ says so, and he will not win by backing into the #1 spot.

Heck, he couldn't even win the WC 100m! Anything can happen in the 100m. Hopefully they will change the false-start rule in time for the Games.

SG, why do you post here?

A fine example of a roid-rage ranting by SprintGeezer.

Michael Johnson is one of the best commentators we have and you do nothing to show that he is wrong. To show that he is wrong you would first have to show that we should bet on someone else for the 100m/200m. But you do not do that at all. You only mention that things can happen and that there are a number of other good sprinters who could conceivably win one of those races. You also say that 9.58 will never be challenged in our lifetimes when we know that sprint times for men do not last that long. We all know that Bolt could be injured again, just as Gay could be. And we all know that Bolt could run something impressive in the 400m, as could Gay. But it is not necessarily clear that he would destroy the 400m record because he may lack the sprint endurance. Wariner ran 43.45 without breaking 20. That was speed endurance. Does Bolt have that? He's never run sub 44.

You always talking and think about s*** you can't do. That is just like, a slow ass white boy. What big track meets have you ran? Forget it ((ass white)), what is ((your 100 and 200 meter times)))? You are the one ((thats mentally challenged)). Go back to your track (((kkk caveman workouts))).

nmnmm

Another tough guy pencil neck racist on the internet.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

Another tough guy pencil neck racist on the internet.

How many black man homes do you eat at? MJ would call YOU, the (white) pencil neck racist of this site. What is your best times in the 100 to 400 meters? You just one more slow a** white boy, talking s*** about black men.

You are always in such a hurry to say that someone is wrong and that you are right that you arguing a point where you essentially agree with the guy. On the 400, MJ did not say that Bolt could break WR by switching at ANY point in his career, i.e, in 5 or 10 years. Obviously he means fairly soon, while he is still fairly young. You are mincing words and finding a fight where there isn't one. On the other points on the 400, you essentially agree with him, so calm down.

As far as the 400 goes, you left out the 2 biggest reason why Bolt has shown he can surely break that WR:

1) he ran 45.3 when he was 16 y.o, clearly making him the most talented 400 runner of all time

2) he ran a 43.58 (!!) relay leg 2 years ago, when not training for the race, and letting up the last 20 meters when he knew he couldn't catch the guy. Sure he had a running start, but he had to pass guys and also let up the last 20 meters.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TK2lPYfkG-8

You guys have short memories.

I don't agree with Johnson's statements about the 400. I think Bolt needs to do it SOON, or else he won't be able to do it at all.

I also don't agree with Johnson's clear implication that nobody but Bolt is a good bet in the 100 or the 200. Blake is a good bet, at least as good a bet as Bolt, in both the 100 and 200. Gay is a good bet in both, and Powell is a good bet in the 100 (well, OK, maybe not Powell because he chokes).

Johnson provides no meaningful analysis whatsoever. He speaks in hyperbole only. He specializes in after-the-fact incredulity, as though a performance he has just seen, that proved incorrect his recent prediction thereof, was somehow anomalous, and that Johnson's prediction was therefore correct, but didn't apply to the race in question.

Johnson lacks mental capacity. I had to laugh years ago, when somebody asked him what he was going to do after his competitive running days were over. His response? "Become an architect."

Classic. Delusional. Johnson.

I don't know him, I'm just going by his commentary I see on the web.

This video is a great example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo6pHs0-3bQ

He talks about Bolt shutting down, then switches gears to "Going back to what I was saying before...", forgets what it was he was talking about, and returns immediately to "When has anyone ever shut down in an Olympic final?"

ummm, err, ummm...

My favorite is his jungle comment at around 0:33. Nice.

His commentating career is a triumph of qualifications over ability.

Hey UncleB, you white KKK race-baiter, re-appearing variously as Mr. Tibbs and other pseudonyms.

Get lost you POS.

Leave it to you to imply that Johnson is a dolt because he is black.

What a piece of crap you are, you toothless meth-head.

What are your track times, in the 100 meters and up? You are one slow a** white boy, with a big a** head? MJ is the man dick a** and you are slow a** hell.

"...I wouldn't put my money on anyone else but him [Bolt] for 100m and 200m."

So, you think that Michael Johnson is mentally challenged because he would not bet on Blake or Gay, but you do not say that anyone is a better bet. Assuming you could bet on only one person, with even odds, who would it be? If Bolt, then spare us your opinion about Michael Johnson, who does a terrific job. You do much better in commenting on sprinting form, not because you know what you are talking about but because you focus us on actual track questions in contrast to most of the threads here.

Your question assumes that I MUST bet on one person.

I wouldn't bet on anybody at this particular moment, including Bolt. All the top guys have a good shot. You must also consider that a year is a long time to the young guys, and leaves room for plenty of improvement in guys like Blake, Lemaitre, Ashmeade, Makusha, Salaam, Mitchell, and even maybe Demps. And one cannot forget about the possibility that Rodgers and/or Mullings will return!

If a gun was to my head, I would pick Blake in both the 100 and 200.

Blake is a disciplined runner. If somebody is even with, or ahead of, Bolt at 75m, Bolt grips. Blake on the other hand lets speed flow, like Gay used to. Now that Bolt doesn't exhibit his amazing starts of yesteryear, he will not be in front at the halfway point.

Blake, Powell, Carter, maybe Thompson, Mullings, Rodgers, etc. will be in front of him. He will be with Lemaitre, Salaam, Makusha, and will need to relax to win.

Blake, on the other hand, is so jacked that he's totally inside his own head, just seeing what heights he can scale. His 19.26 opened even his own eyes to his greatness--it's like he's running in a trance.

All Blake needs is a start, and he will be untouchable in the 100 this year, unless Gay is healthy and has a start (unlikely), or Powell actually performs (also unlikely).

The 200 is a different story. I was not at all shocked by Blake's 19.26 performance or Dix's performance, but I was shocked at how well Lemaitre closed in the last 50 at WC's, and how tightly Bolt was gripping in the last 50 at WC's.

The battle for gold will be between Blake and Bolt. The battle for bronze will be between Dix, Gay, and I think Lemaitre if he gets better intermediate acceleration in the curve. Lemaitre is so robotic that the slightest thing can throw him off--like a curve. He absolutely needs an outside lane to perform well...on the inside, I think he will get crushed.

If I had to pick right now, it would be Blake. His 19.26 was easy and controlled, while Bolt's 19.40 was difficult and tight. All Blake needs is to have Bolt beside him instead of Dix to perform better--and all Bolt needs is Blake beside him instead of Dix to perform worse. Being beside each other would be the best situation for Blake, and the worst for Bolt--and it could very well happen that they will be side-by-side in the final.

So much depends on lane draw also. Here's the thing--in the 200, if you are outside somebody who you know will be a serious threat, you really have to know how to run from the front, to be your own reference rather than reading off somebody else. Bolt can do this very well--can Blake? I think so, he seems to be inside himself...but then again, he didn't shift into top gear until Dix pulled alongside him. Dix he can blow away, but Bolt?

Yes. Bolt will tighten up. Blake is jacked. He could run 250m at the same speed, the way he's running.

Gun to my head? Blake in the 200.

But I wouldn't bet on anybody right now.

Look, Johnson seems like a genuinely nice guy. I'm surprised he didn't come out of retirement the moment Blake (who?) beat his 19.32 while missing the start and having a WR run.

After all, if Blake (who?) can miss the start and run 19.26, MJ should surely be able to go 19.1x, right?

What the hell you know about running the 200 under 20 sounds? Not a f***ING thing about it at all a** white. Talk about times that you can run. Like a 100 in 13.99 running down hill. Give us your best times and let us go over them.