Brian Ollinger - Predict his Marathon Trials performance

P.Whelan wrote:

I would be surprised if anyone goes out in faster than 2:10-2:11 pace, .

No way Hall goes out that slow. I think he will hit the half in 1:03:30 and make the others work to keep up. He has no problem leading marathons. Why would the best marathoner timewise want to run slower and let a bunch of other guys have a chance to run a good last half and beat him? Hall will be throwing down 4:50 miles by mile 4.

Running the OT marathon is a good idea for him either way. Even if he underperforms and runs 2:16, the marathon training he's done will probably pay off this summer in the steeple.

going by history wrote:

P.Whelan wrote:

I would be surprised if anyone goes out in faster than 2:10-2:11 pace, .

No way Hall goes out that slow. I think he will hit the half in 1:03:30 and make the others work to keep up. He has no problem leading marathons. Why would the best marathoner timewise want to run slower and let a bunch of other guys have a chance to run a good last half and beat him? Hall will be throwing down 4:50 miles by mile 4.

No chance. I'd be surprised if the 1/2 was faster than 65 and not at all shocked if it was 67.

After walking on at Ohio State, he dropped his steeplechase time from 8:51 to 8:19 his 3rd year becoming the fastest American collegian ever. Has run under 8:20 every other year or so and last year Gary told him he was running the steeplechase the night before in London where he just missed the A-standard by tenths. Only 2 Americans have the A-standard right now and his training partner (Huling) has run 8:13. So my question is, why mess around with the marathon. His only chance to make the Olympic team is in the steeplechase!

pulling it out of my a55 wrote:

The article I read says Ollinger wants to go out in 5:10s. If he can make it to 20 at that pace, he throws down a 31 minute last 10k for 2:13:20. Finishes in a solid 8th place.

You were close. That would be 2:14:20.

However, I agree with your assessment. I think it is more likely that he and the pack average closer to 4:55-5:00 for the first ten and then the next 10 (depends on the course and the wind) and then the best guys will pick it up from there ... the chaff will start running 5:20s or worse and finish in 2:13, 2:14, 2:16.

DNF or 2:20+. Last few miles could be a bit of a Kip Walk.

Radcliffe is second fastest woman ever?

geddy wrote:

DNF or 2:20+. Last few miles could be a bit of a Kip Walk.

I agree with this. He seems to have is head in the sand a little which, to me, spells death march or DNF. The one thing I feel 100% on is that after sticking with the lead group he won't be finishing the last 5k strong.

But, I've been wrong before.

All you guys saying 2:10 are delusional. Yes his track time indicate 2:10 potential, but I'm guessing less than 1% of people run up to their potential in the marathon their first time out. We remember the few like Gebremariam who rock and roll their first but we forget about the vast majority who tank their first time out. The greatest of all time Gebrselassie even admited it took him several tries to "figure out" the marathon.

I think a 2:12-2:14 would be possible but I think it's more likely he falls back from the leaders around 18 miles and drops out around 20-22 miles.

So Olinger, a guy who's never raced past 7 miles, is going to crank one of the fastest first marathons by an American, according to some of you who thinks 2:10-2:14.

The best guess if I was bettting money on this would be 2:19, although probably being this is the Trials and there probably isn't much money finsihing at that time, more likely DNF.

Going by memory these are some of the fastest debut marathons by Americans:

Ryan Hall 2:08

Alberto Salazar 2:09

Todd Williams 2:11

Rudy Chapa 2:11

Bob Kemapainen 2:12

Fernando Cabada 2:12

Dathan Ritzenhein 2:14

Marc Nenow 2:14.

I might be missing 3 or 4 others in the 2:12 to 2:14 range. Olinger doing this would be a surprise, but maybe not a huge surprise.

Track guys have the ability to do well in the marathon, and this has been proven many times. The first thing that MUST happen is to not approach the race with a track mentality. If your game plan is too stick your nose in it as long as possible you will most likely fail.

Mr. Obvious wrote: I'd be surprised if the 1/2 was faster than 65 and not at all shocked if it was 67.

Agreed. Hall has nothing to gain going out fast and everyone will key off him. He'll negative split, just like in 2008.

Ollinger will DNF.

break it up wrote:

So Olinger, a guy who's never raced past 7 miles, is going to crank one of the fastest first marathons by an American, according to some of you who thinks 2:10-2:14.

The best guess if I was bettting money on this would be 2:19, although probably being this is the Trials and there probably isn't much money finsihing at that time, more likely DNF.

Going by memory these are some of the fastest debut marathons by Americans:

Ryan Hall 2:08

Alberto Salazar 2:09

Todd Williams 2:11

Rudy Chapa 2:11

Bob Kemapainen 2:12

Fernando Cabada 2:12

Dathan Ritzenhein 2:14

Marc Nenow 2:14.

I might be missing 3 or 4 others in the 2:12 to 2:14 range. Olinger doing this would be a surprise, but maybe not a huge surprise.

Ryan Hall 2:08

Alberto Salazar 2:09

Alan Culpepper 2:09

Todd Williams 2:11

Rudy Chapa 2:11

Bob Kempainen 2:12

Fernando Cabada 2:12

Dathan Ritzenhein 2:14

Marc Nenow 2:14

Dingler wrote:

All you guys saying 2:10 are delusional. Yes his track time indicate 2:10 potential, .

How does his track time indicate potential in the marathon? Explain?

break it up wrote:

Going by memory these are some of the fastest debut marathons by Americans:

Ryan Hall 2:08

Alberto Salazar 2:09

Todd Williams 2:11

Rudy Chapa 2:11

Bob Kemapainen 2:12

Fernando Cabada 2:12

Dathan Ritzenhein 2:14

Marc Nenow 2:14.

I might be missing 3 or 4 others in the 2:12 to 2:14 range. Olinger doing this would be a surprise, but maybe not a huge surprise.

2:08:24 2:06:17 Ryan Hall (24) London 2007

2:09:41 2:08:51 Alberto Salazar (22) New York 1980

2:09:41 2:09:41 Alan Culpepper (30) Chicago 2002

2:11:13 2:11:13 Rudy Chapa (26) New York 1983

2:11:17 2:11:17 Todd Williams (28) Chicago 1997

2:11:35 2:11:35 Dan Browne (27) Twin Cities 2002

2:11:46 x:xx:xx Ed Moran New York 2011

2:12:12 2:08:47 Bob Kempainen (25) Twin Cites 1991

2:12:17 2:12:17 Steve Spence (28) Columbus 1990

2:12:27 2:12:27 Fernando Cabada (24) Fukuoka 2006

-10-

2:12:35 2:09:15 Meb Keflezighi (27) New York 2002

2:13:00 2:13:00 Jorge Torres (29) New York 2009

2:13:02 2:11:40 Rod Dehaven Chicago (32) 1998

2:13:07 2:08:59 Greg Meyer(25) Detroit 1980

2:13:21 2:13:21 Steve Ortiz (22) 1981

2:13:24 2:13:05 Mark Coogan (27) Boston 1994

2:13:29 2:12:23 George Malley (27) New York 1982

2:14:01 2:10:00 Dathan Ritzenhein (23) New York 2006

2:14:13 2:14:13 Kyle Baker (26) Chicago 2002

2:14:15 2:14:15 Brad Hauser (25) St Paul 2002

-20-

2:14:21 2:14:21 Mark Nenow (30) New York 1988

2:14:23 2:14:23 John Hunsaker (23) Tempe 1979

2:14:30 2:14:08 Ryan Shay (23) Chicago 2002

2:14:40 2:10:26 Craig Virgin (23) San Diego 1979

2:14:57 2:14:57 Don Johns (26) Duluth 1991

2:15:11 2:15:11 Mike Morgan (26) Chicago 2006

2:15:15 2:14:06 Steve Bolt (25) Rocket City 1980

2:15:16 2:11:32 Paul Cummings (28) St George 1981

2:15:22 2:15:22 Josh Rohatinsky (25) OT 2007

2:15:28 2:11:38 Paul Gompers (19) Rocket City 1983

-30-

2:15:28 2:14:56 Nate Jenkins Austin 2006

2:15:29 2:15:29 Luke Watson Twin Cities 2009

2:15:47 2:15:47 Mike McGuire (26) Detroit 1981

2:15:50 2:15:27 Jason Hartmann (25) Chicago 2006

2:15:51 2:11:25 Randy Thomas (24) New York

Thanks Malmo, I kept trying to find that list.

One thing, Steve Spence never ran a full marathon before winning Columbus in 1990? I recall watching the 1988 Trials and he was in the lead pack looking good in the middle. I would have assumed he had to have a marathon qualifier for that race. I don't think you could qualify any other way back then.

interesting 6 of the top 10 list never improved on their debut time, i think chapa only ran one, but even discounting him, the % of the list's runners who never improve on their debut is high.

newname wrote:

You were close. That would be 2:14:20.

.

Yes, I was thinking 30 minutes for the last 10k. If he was going to run a strong last 5k, I don't think he means at 5 minute pace. In a race though, most of these guys won't sit back and run for a time. He will go too early when the pace really drops down and probably not have much left at the end to run faster.

break it up wrote:

Thanks Malmo, I kept trying to find that list.

One thing, Steve Spence never ran a full marathon before winning Columbus in 1990? I recall watching the 1988 Trials and he was in the lead pack looking good in the middle. I would have assumed he had to have a marathon qualifier for that race. I don't think you could qualify any other way back then.

You are correct. Spence ran 2:17:49 at the 1988 trials -- obviously slower than his "debut" in 1990.

Stricken from the list.