insightlessness wrote:
Up to now, I certainly haven't expected much from her - but she should have a good idea where she's at considering she's training with Hastings. It makes me wonder if she feels that she is at another level of fitness from Amy and therefore thinks she'll be a factor. I'd love to see her in the hunt for the team or the win, but man - how do you pick against Shalane and Desi right now for top two.
I think perhaps that Hastings plans on going for the win as well.
How can Deena make the Olympic team when she finished 20th place in London? Deena always have bad race and make excuses. 2:36:20 is the time she'll run in Houston since she done that most recent.
It's one day one race, period.
Anyone who believes that Flanagan is honestly head and shoulders above the field is a troll or a complete moron.
Desi and Flanagan, on an AVERAGE day, should go 1-2.
Agreed on Goucher. Whoever said that she's a drama queen is right and she will have the tears flowing post race with TONS of excuses. Every runner has to eventually deal with injuries and setbacks along the way but Kara seems to believe that hers are more important....it's all about the $$$$$$. The problem is that she feels entitled when in fact, she's not. What has she done lately?
Mrs. Kastor is capable of a top 3 finish and "could" pull it off, meaning it's not impossible. I would put Hastings and Mags in front of her on an average day, but it's one day one race with tons of pressure. Honestly, Kastor, for the first time in quite a while has very little to no pressure, which is a very good thing as she is hungry and definitely wanting to prove something. Unless she breaks a bone in her foot, I see her top 5 as she is a smart veteran who is capable of pulling it off.
I want Desi to make it but I have this bad feeling that she will be the favorite who doesn't go. It always happens, I hope I'm wrong.
That said I think Shalane is the only "sure thing". I want Kara just because she gets dissed by so many losers on letsrun. Deena would be great. It looks like Tera Moody is out with that bad hamstring.
I think that this is NOT a thread about who the top 3 will be. It is a thread about Deena saying SHE WILL WIN.
Uhhh Deena has so many off days in the marathons. Boston 2007, chicago 2009 when she needs to poop, london 2010 when she has allergies. 2:36:20 run won't land you on the team. Deena doesn't want to improve 2:36:20 her latest run which is stupid. And shut up about 2:19:36. I wasn't here in 2006.
I think it will be Flanagan, Deli, and Kastor in
a sub-2:20 win and 2:22 to make the team.
No one is going to run under 2:20
Kevin In Cal wrote:
Uhhh Deena has so many off days in the marathons. Boston 2007, chicago 2009 when she needs to poop, london 2010 when she has allergies. 2:36:20 run won't land you on the team. Deena doesn't want to improve 2:36:20 her latest run which is stupid. And shut up about 2:19:36. I wasn't here in 2006.
Cool story bro.
Leonard Shivolitz wrote:
I think that this is NOT a thread about who the top 3 will be. It is a thread about Deena saying SHE WILL WIN.
Deena said she is LOOKING to win. There is a difference.
She "doesn't want to improve 2:36?" Where do you get that idea?
I like the running to win attitude. Being in the trials and making it to the Olympics is great, but so many of the people there aren't even going to be trying to win. They'll be elated to finish 3rd and really they're just trying to finish top 10. At least she has her eye on the real prize.
wqerewrerwr wrote:
insightlessness wrote:Up to now, I certainly haven't expected much from her - but she should have a good idea where she's at considering she's training with Hastings. It makes me wonder if she feels that she is at another level of fitness from Amy and therefore thinks she'll be a factor. I'd love to see her in the hunt for the team or the win, but man - how do you pick against Shalane and Desi right now for top two.
I think perhaps that Hastings plans on going for the win as well.
Interesting thought, I would have figured she was going for top 3 (3rd) primarily, but you're probably right. They seem to be very confident and training with each other is probably feeding that more.
Can't believe this won't be streamed.
Kevin In Cal wrote:
Uhhh Deena has so many off days in the marathons. Boston 2007, chicago 2009 when she needs to poop, london 2010 when she has allergies. 2:36:20 run won't land you on the team. Deena doesn't want to improve 2:36:20 her latest run which is stupid. And shut up about 2:19:36. I wasn't here in 2006.
I hereby nominate Kevin Half/Kevin in Cal/Kevin/etc for the worst poster of 2011. Seriously, dude, learn to read, write, and form a cohesive message.
Think about who has credentials that might allow a 2:22 or better quality race:
Kastor, has run 2:19, has a OG bronze run with a very competitive last 10k
Goucher: her 1/2 PR is almost WR level on an only modestly downhill course and has run pretty well in a couple of WRM. Also has a medal
Flanagan: Has run world-class races (Bronze WXC) and has great range, a high WMM finish with a modest time but against top runners and with a hard-paced last 10K.
A little thinner in terms of a really top single marks but with something close:
Desi: her WMM placing and nature of her finish and time.
What do runners do if either immediately or after a bit Kastor takes off at 5:20 pace. She may never come back. Now it is the trials and they might figure if she can hold that pace she would be on the team no matter what they did and then hope she blows up. I see her possibly doing this if the pace is too much slower than 5:35 pace. However, I also see her thinking that if they let her get through the first half without blowing her fuel out that she might then rely on that world-class background that is not quite there for a full race at pace but can stitch a 5:20 finish on to a 5:40 start. Flanagan can probably count on going with any strategy in the sense of letting someone with a very hard pace go and figuring she can run the last 10K with anyone.
I am not saying any of those first three is a lock but that they each have an advantage because the other runners know that they have done things that are beyond them (except maybe not beyond Desi). No one other than those four is likely capable of running a 2:22-quality race [caveat, the new Kenyan-born American might have that level, I do not know enough about her].
1. Flanagan
2. Davila
3. Magda
It really is amazing that the trials won't be televised/streamed anywhere considering the growing popularity of marathoning (and hobby marathoning in particular). Granted, your average 6 hour marathoner probably knows squat about elite level distance running, but I think we can all appreciate that they are running the same event and doing it at the highest level. How is this not profitable for someone to televise or stream? How much does it really cost to stream something live?
I certainly don't know anyone's plans, but I would think Kastor would intend to wait til the last 10k, because she probably feels that Desi will keep the pace honest for her or perhaps Amy will. That being said, can't think that will win it either. Ahh, it's all just so exciting though - Does Shalane try to get too far ahead of Desi to get caught, does she sit and press the last 10k (my guess) does Desi press the pace - I can't wait for this.
1.Davila
2.Flanagan
After that who knows? Goucher is one of the favorites for that 3rd spot, but she could just as easily finish 6th or 7th. I think Kastor's career is done. She will drop out or run slower than 2:35
Kastor has the potential to win the game simply because she got a medal waiting for everyone else to blow up at the end of the race.
Desi and Flannelgan have both blown up in similar fashions
Goucher
Kastor
Hastings