Will an American male ever win Foot Locker again?

Here is some objective data from Tully Runners:

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2011/FLspeed2010to1997.htm

You will find Edward and Futsum on the list.

Past runners rank at FL wrote:

Here is some objective data from Tully Runners:

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2011/FLspeed2010to1997.htm

You will find Edward and Futsum on the list.

How did they come up with those numbers? I'm just wondering how Ritz's 14:35 is superior to his 14:29 on the same course?

Here is Tully Runners explanation of how the speed ratings are determined:

http://www.tullyrunners.com/Data/Articles/SpeedRatingInfo.htm

The speed ratings do depend on how the course was running. The day that Ritzenheim ran the 14:35 it was quite hot. This is one of the variables that affected the speed of the runners that day.

There are a lot of articles and comments of the Footlocker and NXN over the years which I think are very enjoyable to read.

if you honestly think this, then you are NOT a true runner. circumstances change every year, and as a results times are different. weather conditions, course conditions, and more affect the races and winning times prove nothing....tsk tsk....you call yourself a runner?

america for amerians wrote:

When is the last time an American won? Like 8 years ago?

That's interesting, thanks for posting it.

Real American, i.e. Billy Mills

Anyone try WhyPee.com?

it's yp.com, smarty

Here is another key article (if you have not already found it) on the speed ratings from the Tully Runners site:

http://www.tullyrunners.com/Data/Articles/Misconcept.htm

The TullyRunners concept is interesting, but has its limitations as well.

Essentially it assumes:

- talent/condition pool of the median runners (say middle 12) is the same every year

- pace of middle runners is affected only by course conditions (not by persons/events during the race)

Nowadays the field should possibly be divided based on who ran in NXN as well, if those people are not fully recovered in one week. Recovery has been a problem in some years when conditions at NXN were brutal.

An improvement (in my view) would be to have a parametric or nonparametric adjustment for actual measured course conditions (say temperature and muddiness on some courses)

Those are reasonable criticisms. His best data are in Section 3 in the state of New York, and he discusses that in his site. He does have data for many years for the Footlocker and NXN including the regional races. He also uses other major races including the state championships (i.e. California. So going into the championship races he has speed ratings on the competitors. The real test of Tully Runners (Bill Meylan)is in predicting winners in NXN and Footlocker. If one looks over the predictions over the years based on these speed ratings, then one can see that the speed ratings are quite good. This does not answer definitely your criticisms when we are discussing a particular race, but it does give us some confidence that his speed ratings are reasonable and make sense.

letssss run racists wrote:

Futsum and Cheserek are high school kids, who moved here with their families. Going through public high school in the U.S. makes you American for sure.

It's not like NCAA's, where people come here with the intent of running.

Not that I have a problem with it but I am pretty sure St. Benedict's recruited Cheserek to come here on his own and that any family he has is still in Kenya. I'm happy for the kid. He is going to get a great education and he is one hell of a runner. The things he did this year were unreal.

I don't think he has a family with whom he might have moved here.

http://www.youth1.com/other-sports-headlines/recent-arrival-edward-cheserek-may-shake-up-new-jersey-xc-scene.html