NIKE CROSS NATIONALS PREDICTIONS

runn wrote:

The girls predictions show that NY deserves more teams in nationals. I think 3 auto's and room for more. Although Canadaigua was back a ways, Bronxville may have run if they knew 3-5 NY teams could go. Eat Aurora might also deserve a shot.

Boys is fine at 2 auto's.

100% correct! NY deserves 5 bids. You are also correct in that Jim Mitchell would have run his Bronxville team instead of just Mary Cain if this was the fact. His #2 girl had a slight injury so why chance it when they needed to beat FM,Saratoga,and North Shore. they are a top 10 team if the get to Portland. I'll be rooting for Mary Cain and the NY teams to kick the S..t out of Cali!

I pretty much agree with your predictions except that I actually think Julie Macedo can beat Jillian Fanning-Macedo has run sub-17s for the 5K while Fanning has not. I think Sarah Baxter may have accomplished a similar feat at Mt. SAC in 2010, but not sure. Then again, I am not the one to judge because the landscape in Delaware is not the same as that in California nor New York. Nevertheless, the NXN Girls race will be exciting on both the individual and team aspect, as it will be interesting to see if FM can repeat with 2 of their top 5 scorers from last year injured.

I pretty much agree with your predictions except that I actually think Julie Macedo can beat Jillian Fanning-Macedo has run sub-17s for the 5K while Fanning has not. I think Sarah Baxter may have accomplished a similar feat at Mt. SAC in 2010, but not sure. Then again, I am not the one to judge because the landscape in Delaware is not the same as that in California nor New York. Nevertheless, the NXN Girls race will be exciting on both the individual and team aspect, as it will be interesting to see if FM can repeat with 2 of their top 5 scorers from last year injured.

DITTO!!!

Belen Jesuit FTW!!!!

1. FM

2. Tatnall

3. Saratoga

4. Saugus

5. Northshore

6. Redondo

7. Simi Valley

8. Carmel

9. Fort Collins

10. La Costa Canyon

Individuals

1. Sarah Baxter

2. Jillian Fanning

3. Julie Macedo

4. Amy Eloise Neale

5. Knight

Redondo has been on fire lately. They have run the Portland Meadows course for the last couple of years (at Pre-Nats), but of course that is a much different race. They seem to have adjusted well from last year where they seemed to have peaked too early. This will be an interesting test for Sarah Baxter in her first post-season race. It's too bad Simi lost its #4 runner to injury recently, they could threatened the podium.

Weather looks to be warmer and drier than last year.

dr. d wrote:

Miami Belen will finish in the top 5 at least.

Mark my words

I thought they were pretty good at NXN-SE. Their top guy is a stud.

But PM doesn't have any crushed gravel paths or any of the other course grooming that SE teams run on all year. I can't see them getting any better than 12th, although as an SE coach I'd like to see it.

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dr. d wrote:

Miami Belen will finish in the top 5 at least.

Mark my words

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The south does not have great history of top-5 finishes. As good as they are - maybe more like 6 - 10th.

Hi, No comment on the boys teams, but I've been trying to keep up with the girls all season. Basically there is something off with the various rankings when teams run short or fast races so I'm trying to adjust for that. I've heard that course is a little better than last year, but still wet.

Here's my picks:

1. FM but not a breakout like last year

2. Tatnall

3. Saratoga

4. Saugus

5. Summit

6. North Shore

7. New Trier

8. Carmel

9. Glacier Peak

10. Fort Collins

I think FM is vulnerable this year, but with the coaches' experience level I expect that they'll peak at the right time as always. I think that Saugus is also vulnerable if the conditions deteriorate since their team doesn't seem to be as strong as last year. Redondo Union moved way down on my list after their tie breaker with the 8th ranked team from the NW at Nike Pre-Nats. They were close enough to LCC at state to move them well down as well. With Simi losing #4 and the emotions of last week I think they'll still be weaker than Redondo. Fort Collins has experience and seems to be having a come from behind year. With their best performance of the year at NXN I'm guessing that their coaches experience will have them peaking at the right time.

Boys:

1. CBA

2. Southlake Carroll

3. American Fork

4. Arcadia

5. FM

Girls:

1. FM

2. Saratoga

3. Tatnall

4. Saugus

5. North Shore

I'm not sure if this is true this year but I believe that last year Redondo did not run pre-nats as an all-out race (more of a threshold), I could be wrong but I remember dyestat reporting it. Either way, Redondo has improved leaps and bounds from that meet, hardly a reason to drag LCC down with it. BUT they are still untested on the NXN course (and that is a big BUT).

You should give George Kelly a blumpkin before the race.. might help

Did no one else see who he put for number 5? Joe Hardy? What?

That has to be either joe's teammate or himself trying to talk him up cause joe has almost no shot at top 5...

FM wins the girls...again. Columbus North (IN) surprises and wins the boys race. I think the boys race will be extremely close, with the top five teams all finishing within 30-35 points of one another.

FM

Saugus

Saratoga

Christian Brothers

Columbus North

Arcadia

Check out the projections. Those speed ratings are awesome. Obviously, they're not exact but they are amazingly close. Scroll down, he has his predictions for Feds, NYSPHSAA, and Section III (his section in NY) with the actual score next to it.

Obviously it can't account for things like an M-E kid (#3 runner) going down and getting spiked so he finished way back in the NYSPHSAA Meet.

If this race were at Mt Sac it would be so much different

I believe So Cal underperforms because they basically run in the same conditions all year. Dry hard fast courses, no slop.No cold, no snow, no mud. No win Nxn

Great article by Bill Meylan on the advantages that the Portland Meadows course provides certain runners/teams.

I wholeheartedly agreed with many of the points of this article and I firmly believe that FM's domination would have continued on any course but California teams certainly would have been closer :)

Nobody expected Craig Nowak to win FLSouth in 14:37 and Daniel Vertiz to finish 3rd in 14:40.

SLC averaged 15:55 at Nike South and 15:46 at TX State, and at both races they had one runner off (at NXN they had a 3-4 guy finish 7th on the team, and at TX State their #1 finished 5 on the team).

Nike South was won in 15:19 by Daniel Vertiz (2nd Kevin Hoyos 15:25, Craig Nowak 3rd in 15:26).

TX State was won in 15:16 by Craig Nowak (2nd Vertiz in 15:21, 3rd Hoyos in 15:27).

Now look at those time averages again. I realize FL South is a speed course, but a 14:37 & a 14:40 definitely indicates the south just might be a slight bit better than expected.

Then you could just look at the Chili Pepper Festival. That course runs about similar times compared to FLSouth, and SLC had 6 guys from 15:04-15:25, with their #7 and #8 15:40/15:46 (and coincidentally their #8 was is a top 5 runner, another off day).