Give Me Your Top 5 for the Olympic Marathon Trials

Barnicle running well?

Hall

Ritz

Hartmann

Cabada

Arciniaga

Torres was in my top 5, but then he had to go run into a car in Ireland.

Why? Hall and Ritz are always contenders. Hartmann seems to be able to run hard when it is needed. Never anything crazy fast or with the Kenyans persay, but a strong American. Fernando Cabada and Arciniaga are the dark horses. Cabada knows how to race and has started training with Hudson and the group in Boulder. Arciniaga, not sure what he is up to lately, but I am guessing he is ready.

A 6th, even though you wanted a top 5, would be Mike Sayenko. Just a guess. I didnt include Meb, who is in great shape obviously, but I have to think NYC took too much out of him. I hope this doesnt happen, but I think he will get injuried pre race or fade in the chase pack of the trials because he is too tired.

Women:

Flanagan

Goucher

Davila

Blake Russell

Lewy Boulet

And a 6th as a guess is Adriana Nelson Pirtea. My guess on the womens actual order...who knows! I could see it becoming a great race. Or one of them (Magda) going out hard and everyone else racing for second.

Hall

Meb

Someone Who will Get 60th at the olympics

someone with a 28:40 10k pr

someone who likes hot dogs

I think it'll be Flanagan, Davila, MAYBE Goucher.

Meb and 4 slow white guys. None will be in the money.

A better question would be where the first American will cross the finish line in London.

Maybe 1 in the top 20.

Men:

Hall

Meb

Gotcher

Ritz

Hartman

For pete's sake we are weak in the mens marathon. WTF.

Women:

Much better race, probably:

Flanagan

Davila

Rothstein

Goucher

Lewy-B

wepmad wrote:

Are we going by times or looks? I vote for the later and suggest posting pics.

Then here is my vote. Thanks for improving the scenery of a marathon.

I like Serena Burla coming back from her cancer/surgery last year for a darkhorse in the 3rd spot...

Women's Side:

Flanagan

Davila

Goucher

Koll

Lewy-Boulet

-----

Kastor

Cherobon-Bawcom

Lisa Koll qualifies through her 10k times. If she's training with Flanagan and Goucher, then I think she's a serious contender if she shows up.

Men's Side:

Hall

Meb

Ritz

Gotcher

Nelson

Moran would be in the mix if he decided to run, but I'm not sure he has enough time to recover, so he may as well get a payday at a spring marathon rather than risk a poor showing at the trials for nary a dollar.

The women's race is fascinating. It is very possible any of the following women could make the team.

Flanagan - favorite but she has only run 1 and it was 2:28 and her coach is still somewhat unprove in the marathon.

Goucher - 2:24 PR but has had injruy problems and has a new coach (see Flanagan)

Davila - seems like a lock but haven't seen anything from her the last several months - is she just training or is she injured

Bawcom - crazy talent, but has she overcooked it with races this fall chasing money

Kastor - hasn't done anything in last several years, until she just ran a 1:11 half (is she back?)

Hasting - Most improved runner of the year - but only 1 marathon - can she put it together under the pressure of the trials?

Rothstein - see Hastings (hope she doesn't try and wear a Picky Bars tattoo)

Magda L.B - She'll be ready and go 2:28 but will that do it this year.

Moody - good WC race, so would look to go sub 2:30 at the trials but there are reports of some hamstring issues

Pritz - good debut in NYC, but tight turn-around to the trials leaves her questionable for the type of improvement needed to make the team. Has the talent to be in the hunt.

Grandt - 2:29 PR, great improvement - but it was at Boston with the trailwind, can she do it under pressure at the trials?

McGregor - good racer but she will need to move up a level to get a team spot.

It is conceivable that we have 6-8 women go sub 2:30 in this race. The question is what it takes to make the team 2:25 or 2:28.

How the women's race will unfold:

My guess is that pace is kept reasonable with a 1:13 mid to 1:14 low at the half and then the pack slowly dwindles until mile 20 when 4-5 women are left in the lead pack. Then one of the big dogs makes a move to go for the win and the rest of the pack is strung out.

I don't think anyone benefits from making it overly fast, as they will have to do all the work, but I also don't think a few of them will let it be overly slow either. Probably steady 5:35-5:40's per mile until someone makes a move after 30k.

Men's race a little more clear cut - I think its very likely that Hall repeats his 2008 performance, but this time a healthy Meb claims second with Ritz third.

Hall

Meb

Ritz

Abdi?

Ritz

Hall

Meb

Hartmann

Nelson

Flanagan

Desi

Goucher

Magda

Russell

Hall

Ritz

Meb

King

Gotcher

Flanagan

Goucher

Davila

Kastor

Rothstein

Going by impulse...

Hall

Ritz

Meb

Gotcher

?

Will have to study this further to get a better sense....

Meb

Ritz

Hall

Trafeh

Curtis

Davila

Cherobon Bawcom

Flanagan

Hastings

Boulet

Women -

Davila

Flanagan

Goucher

Lewy Boulet

Kastor

Men -

Hall

Meb

Ritz

Hartmann

Gotcher

Someone mentioned Rupp...is he even running the OT marathon?

Davila is healthy... if you knew Hansons background you'd know they don't race during a marathon segment.

That being said, I don't believe anyone is a lock in a Trials type setting.

I say:

-Hall

-Meb

-Hartmann

for the men... and:

-Davila

-Flanagan

-Lewy-Boulet

for the women.