jason - i concur - 3:35 stateside on a windy afternoon is surely worth 3:32 or so in a competitive race in Europe. Webb did all that could have been expected of him from an early season race...let's hope for the best for him
jason - i concur - 3:35 stateside on a windy afternoon is surely worth 3:32 or so in a competitive race in Europe. Webb did all that could have been expected of him from an early season race...let's hope for the best for him
JDog, you just answered yourself. If Kevin Sullivan is world class (which he is) and has run 3:31, and Alan Webb crushed him on Saturday 3:35 to 3:39, than Alan Webb is world class and will be able to compete with the best.
Alan Webb could be much like an Ivan Heshko of Ukraine. To have a chance at medalling in the Olympics, a 1500-meter runner must have the capability of running sub-3:35, as Heshko ran 3:33.17 last year to take the Bronze behind El G.
We're not expecting Webb to demolish El G or Lagat, but to COMPETE with the best, much like Steve Scott used to do. Below are the last 3 Olympic results. If Webb, or any runner in the final can put together a great race, he has a chance of medalling.
1992
1. Fermin Cacho (Spa) .......................3:40.12
2. Rachid El Basir (Mor) ....................3:36.48
3. Mohamed Suleiman (Qua) ...................3:40.69
1996
1. Noureddine Morceli (Alg) .................3:35.78
2. FermÃn Cacho (Spa) .......................3:36.40
3. Stephen Kipkorir (Ken) ...................3:36.72
2000
1. Noah Ngeny (Ken)..........................3:32.07
2. Hicham El Guerrouj (Mor)..................3:32.32
3. Bernard Lagat (Ken).......................3:32.44
Lone Star wrote:
1992
1. Fermin Cacho (Spa) .......................3:40.12
2. Rachid El Basir (Mor) ....................3:36.48
3. Mohamed Suleiman (Qua) ...................3:40.69
How is it that the second place guy ran faster than the first place guy?? :)
At the risk of sounding facile, I think he has to run 3:33-34 first, which, in the right conditions, he can run at Hengelo. I think, that is, that he needs the confidence of being able to run very fast before he is willing and able to go out in 56 seconds, which is what will be necessary in the kind of race that will give him 3:31-32.
JasonInNevada wrote:
The Home Depot race indicates that Webb is absolutely
ready to make a huge improvement at Hengelo.
Webb ran the last 800 meters of the race alone and the
conditions were windy.
I think that if he doesn't have any problem with the
jetlag, and the pacing and weather conditions are good,
he can go about 3;31-3;32.
Webb ran last 600m alone, not 800m, the rabbit left at 900m
You are an idiot. 3:35 in May with crappy weather, running the last 600 alone is definitely "near world class." It IS world class. Sullivan has run 3:31. Webb can run close to that in a perfect race right now. I think he'll run 3:33 at Hengelo. Sullivan finished 5th in the Olympics, yet he "barely stands a chance?" Maybe he doesn't stand a great chance now, but when he was running 3:31 he sure as hell stood a chance, he competed with the world's best. I'd be thrilled if Webb finished 5th at Sydney. Wouldn't you? Judging by your attitude, probably not. He'd just be another failure.
If running overseas for the 1st time doesn't cause significant jetlag, then I think Webb's going to see El G, remember that he finished 3.51 seconds behind him in 2001, realize he's got the A-Standard with nothing to lose and go for a BIG race. Unless (maybe) El G.'s on a 3:26-27 type of pace, then I bet Webb goes for it with MAJOR courage.
El G always opens his season with a time from 3:29-3:32 but almost always it's 3:30 or 3:31, maybe Webb can stay a little close, although not right on him
JDog wrote:
3:35 isn't anywhere near world class anymore. Webb has so far to go it's just silly. Great run, but he's not competing with the best milers in the world. Sully has ran 3:31 I believe, and he barely stands a chance...
Lone Star didn't say that Webb's 3:35 WAS world class, but I believe I read that it's the 2nd fastest outdoor time this year. So...if only one other runner has run that fast so far, and we assume people will run faster as the season progresses, can't we assume that Alan can continue to improve? Looking at it that way, I think his 3:35 looks pretty f***ing good right now.
And when it comes to the Olympic Trials, how many US runners will be able to run even that fast? Obviously Webb still needs to show that he can make it through the rounds AND run a smart final, but in running this one race (and we'll see how the next few races go for him and others), he's currently the favorite for the Trials.
BDG