I have written quite a bit on various message boards about overage Africans and I have been around Kenyans quite a bit, as an athlete/coach in regular life and in my opinion Cheserek does not look or fit the mold of an age cheater. I’ve seen this kid close up twice and he looks like a teenager. Of course he does not look like your typical suburban kid, his face shows the wear of coming from a 3rd world country, but he still looks and has the demeanor of teenager. Keep in mind Cheserek came to the U.S. from an orphanages. Orphanages have to group kids by age for funding and other purpose and they have a variety of ways to approximate to within months kid’s age.
Most age cheating revolves around African’s competing at Youth and junior competitions were the incentive is to win medals and perhaps get picked up by an agent. These athletes will have incredible age defying performances and the athlete generally came from out of nowhere. They are not the athletes who competed in grade school and age group competitions like Cheserek did. The day Cheserek stepped foot on U.S. soil, he was already an elite H.S. runner for senior and there was no incentive by anyone to make him out to be younger than he actually was. If he really wanted to cheat, why not say his age was one year younger to perfectly match is grade.
Btw, most Kenyans know their birthdate, they celebrate birthdays with cake the way we do. Bernard Lagat for example can probably tell you what hour he was born. Kenyan’s (in-country) take the age of athletes very serious, in fact, in Kenyan age group competitions, they spend as much time fighting about the age of athletes as they do competing. But, when it comes to life altering opportunities such as competing outside of Kenya, winning international Youth and Junior competitions and earning enough money in a couple of years to support an entire family for a life time, Kenyan and Africans in general have an unwritten rule not to discuss an athlete’s age.
To the question of whether Cheserek will break all of the U.S. high school records, I don’t think so. I spike of his 1:51 800m, from what I have seen and been told, Cheserek is actually a distance runner with good speed. It is not uncommon for a H.S. distance runner with his talent to run a 1:51 half. Cheserek may go sub-4 this year, but that is a long-long way from 3:53. If I recall correctly, Webb ran a 500m indoors which suggest he was a legit 47x quarter miler. I suspect the easiest record Cheserek will be the 5K and SC, but I am not sure about the 2-mile and 10K will come this year. The (outdoor) 2-mile record is very legit and the 10k record in going to require better racing maturity than Cheserek has shown. However, I would not be totally surprised if either the 2-mile or 10K goes down this year, but not both. Between the mile/2-mile/5k/SC/10K and relays, there is only so much you can do in a season.
In terms of being the GOAT, there are things that Jim Ryun did in H.S. that will be almost impossible for any H.S. to ever accomplish and in the case of Cheserek, he will not have the opportunity to make a national team or approach world records as Ryun did in H.S.