Should Centro finish is 5th year of track at U of O????

Gopro wrote:

Should Centro finish is 5th year of track at U of O or go pro...

He should do whatever he wants to do.

ttc wrote:So arguing a 2012 NCAA title boosting his stock makes no sense.

It makes no sense if you assume everyone in the world thinks the same way you do. But there are intangibles at play too -- there's glory in the perception of self-sacrifice. If he stays amateur, he comes off as a guy who puts his team and his teammates ahead of easy money. And he gives the local fans something more to cheer about -- let's be honest, there's something special about NCAA titles, in the same way that lots of people are more passionate about NCAA basketball or football than the pro version, even though the pro version is inarguably higher caliber. And remember: pro running contracts have as much to do with buzz generation as they do with actual PRs.

The point is, when people suggest that he could boost his stock by staying in school, it's not that they think winning another NCAA title will cause shoe companies to reevaluate his potential. They already know what his potential is! It's that he gives himself a chance for the legend of "Centro Nation" to grow in a way that will be closed to him forever once he leaves school -- and even if only people who really care are U of O fans, that could make a pretty major difference when you consider that he'll eventually be negotiating with the most important U of O fan of all. The fact is, Phil Knight can't BUY success for U of O, but he can sure as hell reward those who postpone their payday for the benefit of the school.

Is the strategy without risk? Of course not. Tear an Achilles before signing that contract, and his whole world changes. But it wouldn't be a totally crazy thing to do.

NIKE doesn't pay Tyler Hansbrough 1 penny more, just for staying at UNC 4 yrs. Centro's already a champion '#1 pick' and can't surpass a medal, nor a medal buzz before next June. But the buzz could fade by next June decreasing his value, even w/ a title. And if he has a bad NCAA race? Plus, assuming he's got 10 more good earning years, he's forfeiting ~ 10% and maybe 15-20% of his career $$. if he's done before 30. But hey, 'Centro Nation', right? He already medaled as a Duck and nothing will surpass it. EVERY year, USATF 1500M top 3 changes huge. Where are Webb, Lomongo, Lukezic? Any more reasons needed? He's putting millions in play at the center of the table. A bad injury or car accident and he's got nothing.

Just to be thorough -- you forgot to mention that Phil and Nike actually appreciate running and the sport of track and field -- and have invested mountains of money in it (and other sports).

You know, if you are a food company, promoting eating is probably a good thing.

Yeah but anything can happen as we all know so the young man should complete his degree, prepare for grad school part-time. He should turn pro, work with his dad back in suburban DC, or better yet I would suggest moving to L.A. to cash in on TV and train at Mammoth and So Cal.

Centro, Jr. lists his home as Arnold, MD on USATF reports from IAAF Daegu of his bronze medal. My guess is that he will turn pro after completing a B.A., train at American U with Lauren, both coached by Matt Sr.

If he was going to go pro, he should have done right after NCAA's last year.

Why spend a summer running at pro meets, medaling at WC's, skipping the post-WC money meets and passing on any money all year, and then not run college the following year?

I usually think the NCAA system hurts the athlete rying to peak at the end of the summer but he pulled it off last year.

He just has to mininimze his early season meets and gear his training towards peaking at the Trials and doing what he needs to be ready for the Olympics if he makes the team.

And making the team is no given.

Nike probably already has a pile of money set aside for him the minute he goes pro. He is being paid now. It's just in a "trust fund."

ttc wrote:

A bad injury or car accident and he's got nothing.

Except a degree and a future that has staying power.....

Can we stop calling Rupp Nike's "poster child"? I don't know if you have noticed but their current poster children are Wheating, Eaton, Felix and Koll. Those 4 are great athletes and good looking and Nike is using them for all of their marketing, signage, and advertisements. I have yet to ever see one with Rupp. I am sure Trey Hardee will be used a bit now that he is a 2 time Dec champ and good looking to boot. Anna Pierce was used in that multi-sport "Educators 2" campaign. It used to be all Kara Goucher, Symmonds, and Fleshmen b/c they were good and good looking and the peeps mentioned above are the new crop.

Rupp will have to overcome his lack of good looks before they really start using him. Right now 95% of runners don't know who any of the people listed above are, so to them the guy/girl in the ads is really just a model to them. To the other 5% they are an athlete.

Go Pro, live in Eugene running for OTC. Live in the same place, go to the same classes, run for the same coaches, use the same facilities, train with the same training partners, MAKE 6 FIGURES!!!

3rd in the world = way better than 1st in NCAA. Don't change what works, but get paid to do the same thing. Any injury or loss at NCAA's plummets his earning potential from where it is now. Get a 5 year contract to get through 2016 now.

This seems like an easy call!

JB800/1500 wrote:

why do you think rupp got such a lucrative contract besides being nike's poster child? had the multiple titles, all americans and world/oly teams to make him worth more. same for wheating, reason he waited so long to sign after school was to make himself more marketable in terms of times.

Do you work for Nike and want to get him for free this year?

Rupp got more money by staying because until his senior year he had 0 NCAA titles. He was a very fast runner without a kick. Who wants to sign that?

Wheating had not won an NCAA title when he made the Olympic team in 2008.

Centro has an NCAA title and a medal the other guys dream about.

How can his stock go up? He can't eclipse his bronze medal before the NCAA season ends. If he gets hurt or does not make the Olympic team...

In an Olympic year, Vin Lanana has a great track record of managing his athletes to peak at the right time.

2000- Stanford duo Stember and Jennings made the team in the 1500, and Brad Hauser in the 5000.

2008- Wheating in the 800, and Rupp in the 10,000 (although Rupp redshirted). In '09, Rupp makes another world team after dominating NCAA indoor and outdoor. Wheating runs 3:30 in Europe in 2010 after an 8-15 double at NCAA.

Bottom line is Lanana knows what he's doing in terms of having the collegiate system work for Olympic-caliber athletes, rather than the other way around. If this were Oklahoma State where guys are looking to peak in Terre Haute the last Monday in November then Centro should definitely turn pro, but we're talking about Oregon and Lanana's program here.

If Centro wins the 1500 trials wearing the Oregon jersey, it will harken back to Prefontaine winning the 5000 against George Young in the 1972 trials 5000. That's the narrative that Nike would like going into London 2012.

I would say why mess with success, being a college runner this year worked out pretty well so why change anything. We've seen examples of runners struggling to duplicate their college success in their first pro year (Wheating, JennyB) so I think that going pro would be taking the risk, not staying in school.

That was from a strictly running standpoint from a financial point, unless Nike encourages him to stay with Oregon (possible, the UO jersey in some ways is more recognizable for NIKE better than an OTC jersey) he will assuredly lose money by not turning pro.

Turn Pro wrote:

Yeah but anything can happen as we all know so the young man should complete his degree, prepare for grad school part-time. He should turn pro, work with his dad back in suburban DC, or better yet I would suggest moving to L.A. to cash in on TV and train at Mammoth and So Cal.

Why would it make sense to change locations and coaches? Didn't he just have a good season with his current coach? Why on earth would he do anything now besides stay with his current coach?

(And how exactly would moving to LA let a distance runner "cash in on TV?" By starring in a reality show?)

Gopro wrote:

Should Centro finish is 5th year of track at U of O or go pro...

5th year of track IS at U of O. Centro should always finish, but I guess he does drop out a fair amount.

Centro has to be worth around a million bucks through 2016, not including appearance fees, time bonuses, or an other type of bonuses incorporated. Was it smart of him to not cash in on some of the appearance fees over in Europe post WC, maybe it was maybe it wasn't. He's been racing and training for a long time and maybe he was just too burnt out and decided not to risk injury. However, his stock will not get any higher between now and the Olympics. So much could happen between now and then, and like someone else pointed out, the top 3 in the 1500 has changed from year to year. If Lamong decides to shove him this year instead of AJ, that could screw him in the finals (not saying it screwed AJ from being top 3). Just because he returned to school doesn't mean he cannot turn pro in the coming weeks or months. Maybe he is letting the shoe companies open up the vaults and figure out who is going to pay him the most. Truth is he has been injured in the past after running 3:36, winning the race, and looking like the man to beat at NCAA's. Something like that happens again, he loses a few races, and/or doesn't make the Olympics, his yearly salary becomes the total contract worth. If he had just made the WC team and bailed out in the semi's, I would say stay in school and put more money in the bank, but with a bronze medal and the marketability he has shown, going pro makes all the sense in the world.

Typically Centro will have only a few years at the top. Given that he should immediately move to Hollywood to cash in like so many elites have already. If he's lucky he'll be a Lagat, but it's not common.

TrackRecordPerspective wrote:If Centro wins the 1500 trials wearing the Oregon jersey... That's the narrative that Nike would like going into London 2012.

Exactly. And when you say "Nike" would love to see that, it's a desire that goes right to the very top of the company.

Who was more interesting to the public in 2008: Wheating or Smith? Both had fantastic long-odds stories, but the idea of the young college student -- especially from U of O, with its historical resonance in track -- adds something to the narrative. Do you think if Russell Brown, living in Oregon as a pro, had had the big breakout this year instead of Centro, it would have been an equally big, feel-good story? To track fans, it would have been just as remarkable for Brown to medal at Worlds, but it would have been slightly less interesting to the mainstream media and general public: it's just a random pro athlete in an obscure sport winning a bronze medal, instead of a young college student fresh off NCAAs.

To be sure, there are lots of very good reasons for Centro to turn pro right now, as people have articulated in this thread. It's probably what I would do. But there's also a decent argument for staying amateur, especially if that's what he feels in his heart. Sport is full of intangibles -- there's no doubt, for example, that a guy like Lukezic made the right choice financially by going pro early. But did he sacrifice something else? The joy of being part of team? The extra experience of running -- and winning -- high-profile championships races? Instead, he turned running into a job, and took the extra pressure that went with that. There are lots of reasons that first-year pros tend to struggle, and it might be better for Centro to wait for a year before joining that world.

I talked to him the other day. He said he was going pro but staying in class at UofO. He will get the same+better training partners, finish his degree and make cash moneys. He and I don't understand why there is a debate about it.