Rupp vs. Africans - Brussels 10,000 - New AR Coming

I am pretty sure Rupp will sub 26:55 at some point, but not this year. I am guessing he will run close to 27 flat, which is still very good. I have seen Rupp enough in the last 2 years to estimate his talent level as great on the NCAA and USA National level, but againt the best in the world, I would say he is very good. I am optimistic in that Rupp will progress to a great 26:4x type guy at some point, but it will be a progression like he has shown over the last 2-3 years. I estimate that there only about 25 athletes who have run faster than 26:55 and if you exclude the ones that were dragged along by Geb or KB, there is probably less than a dozen. The reason for that is because the AR 10K record is legit. I think the days of the super fast 10ks are over until the next Geb or KB comes along. Most races will be won in the 26:5x range and 26:4x on special occassions.

With that said, I would not be totally surprised either if Rupp does break the AR, but I think it is unlikely this year. If Rupp was a sub 26:55 guy, I think he could have closed a little better in WC 10K. I think Rupp ran a good race in the WC 10k and did the best he could for where he is at right now, which is perhaps a low 27 guy.

rupp 26:53

uceny 3:59

just predictions another prediction k. bekele wont run anything he will pull out.

why isnt lagat on the 5k list?

hopefully lagat runs and both the 5k and 10k records are lowered on the same day.

Some Names wrote:

How about 13 of 18 runners are Kenyan. Their dominance is staggering. What other world-wide sport (not regional, like cross-country skiing for example) has this kind of national dominance?? Throw Ethiopia in with Kenya and you probably have 98% of the world's best distance runners in an incredibly small geographic region. Amazing, really.

It's just cultural.

I predict he goes through 9600m right at 26 flat, trips, and drops out.

The Waterboy wrote:

The start lists have Kenenisa in the 10000m and Tariku in the 50000m...I thought Kenenisa was running the 5000m?

Kenenisa is not running the 10000m. I don't believe he's running anything at this point.

Rupp has three choice

Run for the AR.

Run with the pack the way he did at the Worlds and get out kicked

Or run up front Ron Clark style and not get pulled into a slow early pace. He may still not be in the top 3 but he needs to focus on his own time goals. Not fall into their strategy.

No matter how much Rupp works on strength, it won't make him the supreme kicker he needs to be to compete with the likes of Farah.

Ummm, I think you are projecting. It's true that maybe Rupp had 1 better race earlier this year, but I don't think you could say that he has underperformed at championships.

My assumption is that the pack will be at or below AR pace.

So he can run for the AR and run with the back and should not need to lead at all.

This isn't a championship race.

These races are usually put together to run fast.

He has never run in a race like this before.

Let's see what happens.

The conditions at WC were obviously much more difficult. Hot/humid tempaeratures, huge pressure, tactics, etc. Brussels will be cooler, less pressure and a staged, fast pace from the gun, with emphasis on time.

Saladbar continues to promote Rupp's fitness as not from off Farah's, and I like how Rupp got in there and comepeted at both 5 and 10K WC events, which promotes confidence/strength, good fitness. In addition, Rupp is probably focused on a big end of year performance to carry over into 2012, so on this basis I predict a new AR or alternatively a top 3 placing in a more tactical race.

It will have to be won in around 26 50 for rupp to have a chance at breaking the AR. Its enjoyable to watch sub 27 min races. Things will have to go well for him but I see a PB at the very least from him.

Lexmark wrote:

Some Names wrote:

How about 13 of 18 runners are Kenyan. Their dominance is staggering. What other world-wide sport (not regional, like cross-country skiing for example) has this kind of national dominance?? Throw Ethiopia in with Kenya and you probably have 98% of the world's best distance runners in an incredibly small geographic region. Amazing, really.

It's just cultural.

The altitude kinda helps also

On the entry list as it stands there are three runners with personal bests around 26:50 so I'd expect that's the sort of pace they'll be looking for from the pace setters. For what it's worth, Rupp has the fourth best PR at 27:10. It looks like a good set up for him to sit in the pack and run a PR. If he PRs then the AR is certainly within play.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is a ploy.

Predictions for this race are:

1. K. Bekele probably won't run, but if he does it won't be anything that reminds us of the old KB. At worlds, he dropped out of the 10k around half way. At that time, they were running 28 minute pace. This is a good indicator of the kind of shape he is in, and you can't expect a drastic change in two weeks. DNS or DNF are the heavy favorites for KB.

2. Galen Rupp is going to run between 26:55-27:10. He's in great shape right now, and this is his type of running; just get in line and keep clicking off lap 65's.

He better not fall or something again.

CG Homes wrote:

Predictions for this race are:

1. K. Bekele probably won't run, but if he does it won't be anything that reminds us of the old KB. At worlds, he dropped out of the 10k around half way. At that time, they were running 28 minute pace. This is a good indicator of the kind of shape he is in, and you can't expect a drastic change in two weeks. DNS or DNF are the heavy favorites for KB.

Comment on point 1. In an interview with Jos Hermens (Bekele's manager) he states that the improvement in 2-3 weeks with Bekele can be incredible. That being said, it's hard for someone to round into shape for a sub 27:00 10k with 7 months of training in 2 years.

Interview here (good interview, very informative and it's not a typical cookie cutter post race interview):

As for my prediction? Galen either falls way off the pace and doesnt get anywhere near the AR (27:30 or higher). OR he gets it handily (26:55). All depends on that middle section, from 5k-8k. Will be an interesting race to watch, for three people: Eulid Kipchoge, Galen Rupp, and K. Bekele. All the others are just cannon fodder iin my mind (theyre all very good, but i just dont have any connection to them)

Some Names wrote:

How about 13 of 18 runners are Kenyan. Their dominance is staggering. What other world-wide sport (not regional, like cross-country skiing for example) has this kind of national dominance?? Throw Ethiopia in with Kenya and you probably have 98% of the world's best distance runners in an incredibly small geographic region. Amazing, really.

How is Kenyan distance running any different than cross country skiing? There is very low participation per capita around the world in distance running.

Compared with Birmingham and New York, Daegu wasn't Galen's peak shape. Not saying he could have won a medal but I really thought he could have placed a little higher than he did.

So the question is could he get some good training in after Daegu. Hopefully this will be not like Shalane or Uceny...

I won't predict anything. I don't know. I know that the race will be paced fast and he definitely can get to the AR if he can hang on to that pace. But 27 flat would be an accomplishment in itself.

Btw is Kenenisa running or not??

If Rupp has enough left in the tank and runs a steady pace, which he seems to be pretty good at, he can do what Ritz did a few years ago and run mid-pack and get the record. Maybe not by much but a 26:57 or 26:58 will get the job done.