ritz vs. cragg- nc's 5k '04

While age does matter...Ritzenhein has obviously matured more than other runners of his same age. He obviously is more advanced than any 21 year old. Stop using the age argument as there are many good runners at age 21(Morceli, El Guerroj(sp?),Bekele, Kipketer) so that doesn't mean shit.

I was only half serious, but now that you mention it...You really think Cragg's 2004 peak will only be 13:05? I mean, the dude ran 13:16 winning by 30 seconds. After NCAA's, Cragg has what, a good 2 1/2 months to prepare before the Olympic Games? Not to mention no OTrials to prepare for. I bet Cragg EXPECTS to run 12:55 by then...Do I think he will be any match whatsoever for Bekele? Hell no. But more of a match than Ritz will be for him.

And no, I don't see Ritz running much faster than 13:25. Maybe 13:20 or a little under. I think he would have run about the same in the 10k his freshman year given the same race. He's finally just moving up to what will be his best event.

If you think Ritz can run sub 13:20 (4:16-8:32-12:48...he will need a kick) while leading the 5k at nationals in the Texas heat after a prelim in the 5k and beat Cragg then you've got something else coming. DId you see how Cragg tooled Ritz and Willis on back to back days? I doubt anyone will really push Cragg in the 10k as I see Luchini, and Cheseret both opting for shorter distances. Too bad Stevens isn't healthy, but I still think Arkansas could be the first team to ever have someone score in every single flat event on the track.

100-Gay

200-Gay, Spearman, Brown

400-Gatson

800-Hatch, Ahmed

1500-Mulvaney, Taylor

5k-Cragg

10k-Cragg

I also see Thomas placing in the 110HH and maybe even Bridges in the 400IH. If only Lincoln had one more year so they could get points in all of them.

Last year, if I'm correct, didn't they score in the 100, 200, 800, 1500, 3kSC, 5k, 10k?

However, that is a whole different topic...I just thought I would throw it out. Feel free to yell at me for any reason or without a reason. After all, that is what one does on letsrun, right?

speed4800 wrote

"You really think Cragg's 2004 peak will only be 13:05?"

I think he should be estatic if he runs a 13:05 this year-that is a very good time. Yes, he just ran 13:16 virtually solo, but I don't think that translates to 12:55 this year. I also don't understand how not having to prepare for an Olympic Trials gives him a huge advantage. To say that Cragg is capable of running a 12:55 this year and Ritz a 13:20 is just ludicrous. I think Cragg will beat Ritz in a 5k if they are both fresh this year, but he's not 25 seconds better. That's absurd.

isn't it logic that Cragg will win over Ritzenhein, Cragg is faster in the 5k and in every shorter distance so how can Ritz win?To break Cragg with a hard pace he has to be faster(and a lot when A.C. can just drift behind him) than Cragg in the 5k, to outkick him he has to be faster than Cragg in shorter distances.

speed4800 wrote:

No way Ritz is anywhere near Cragg over 5K, or any other distance for that matter. Not trying to discount Ritz's fast 10k, but Cragg would have been a couple seconds in front of Meb had he been in that race. He's in a whole different ballpark than anybody else in the NCAA right now. I think Cragg vs. Bekele would be a better matchup than Cragg vs. Ritz.

I'll try to approach this one as objectively as possible.

The assumption we're working with here is that Ritz will only be running the 5000m, and Cragg will be running both the 5000m & the 10,000m. So, we must take into consideration that Cragg will have already run the 10 before he meets Ritz in the 5000m. If they were both fresh, I'd take Cragg - but I'd still love to see that race. But Ritz fresh vs. Cragg not so fresh - I'll say that's a tossup, but I'd lean towards Ritz.

Also, we haven't really seen everything either of them are CURRENTLY capable of - Ritz hasn't thrown down a serious 5 and Cragg hasn't run a 10 (recently). So to say that Cragg would have beaten Meb is speculation. And to say that "Cragg vs. Bekele would be a better matchup than Cragg vs. Ritz" is just plain stupid.

Overall, Cragg is probably the better runner (compared to Ritz) RIGHT NOW. Long term, who knows. If they can both put a couple of relatively healthy years together, they should both do big things.

BDG

Ritz by 3 seconds in the 5k.

1. Cragg

2. Luchini

3. Ritz

"You heard it here first."

money$ wrote:

Ritz is awesome, but there is nothing he can do to beat Cragg. NOTHING.

Yes there is.

He can run faster than Cragg.

That would beat him.

I think.

yea that's how it works. when you're that good you target a race. running that time is pretty much dominating (collegiate level).

if you are running all out to run a 27:39 or whatever ritz ran, and your last lap is a 66, and he was running all out. ritz LEFT EVERYTHING ON THE TRACK. nothing left in the tank. run 9600 in 26:33 then try to run a 59. see how easy it is. it doesnt necessarily mean ritz is missing finishing speed... who knows ovre 5k, how does the race play out. nc's are know for tactical races... he could have a 55 at the end of a slow 5k.

How quickly we all forget Cheseret who is currently #2 in the nation inthe 5k, #3 in the 10k, and like #9 in the 1500... that's a range almost as good as Cragg's. Cheseret has some speed... and if it is a kicking race, he should fair well.

Luchini should also be able to throw something down... I don't think this is a two man race. Maybe more like four or five.

Ritz is the one.

Wetmore is morpheus.

I am not sure but I think that the only way that Cragg was able to hold of Willis in the 3k indoors was to do mini surges. If it worked against Willis to take away his kick than it could work against Cragg. It is not an exact science but it does make sense and could be done. Sure Willis may have been closer to Craggs ability in the 3k than Ritz is in the 5k and that would make it less likely for Ritz to be able to duplicate against a better Cragg. Cragg will probably win no matter what in my opinion but I thought there was very little if any chance Cragg would be able to hold off Willis.

Cragg is in a league of his own, he IS world class. Get him in a sub 13 race in Europe and he will be down around 13 flat. Everyone debated this indoors too and look what happened. He is unbeatable this year. Also, is it for sure he will run the 10K at Nationals. He has not ran one yet, I know there is time for him to, but it is not for sure. Once again, he is in a league of his own!

Cragg is going to win. First of all, he's better. Second, he "tooled" Willis AFTER running a 5k in the 3k at NCAA indoors, when Willis had proven himself a lot more in the 3k (he did set the national record) than Ritz has in the 5k at this point. If Ritz busts a 13:18 or something, then I will amend my statement. Cragg just will not lose. The 5k will, correct me if I'm wrong, be his last race in an Arkansas jersey. He would run through a WALL for his coach... read the interviews. He'd do anyhting for Arkansas and McDonnell.

Cragg will refuse to lose.

The person who remembers to eat will win the race...

First of all, no one is "unbeatable". Not Bekele, Geb, Cragg, anyone. All it takes is a bad day for one person & a great day for another.

I don't think that anyone can deny that Ritz will run with more guts then anyone he faces, thats what puts him over the top.

If Ritz says his goal is to win the NCAA 5k, I don't think he'd be saying that If he thought he had no chance to win it.

To say that Cragg would've beat Meb in the 10k at Mt. Sac is crazy. Don't forget that Meb ran the last 4k of that race by himself & that was his 3rd fastest time ever. Cragg although I don't think he's ever been in that competitve of a 10k has never ran even remotely close to that sort of time.

Cragg took 8th in x-c this year. What happened there? I thought he was unbeatable.

KC Roadrunner wrote:

Cragg took 8th in x-c this year. What happened there? I thought he was unbeatable.

It is called surgery and three weeks of training.