Rudisha Looks Beatable at Worlds

Yes, as a relative newbie with lots of high expectations riding on him, and all of 20 years old then (now only 22, by the way), Rudisha did what inexperienced runners sometimes do. He is a lot more experienced than last time. Is he beatable? All runners are, or there would be no need to run a race, and many unbeatable runners get beaten in key moments. But, like Bikele in his prime, Rudisha is certainly an overwhelming favorite like few others. Still, Kaki was close and serious about trying. And if Rudisha were not running, we might be having this thread about if Kaki was unbeatable.

mnemosyne wrote:

Has everyone forgotten that Rudisha got spanked at WC's in 2009? He's the favorite, sure, but he's not unbeatable, and he's not in world record shape like last year.

I think he will do just fine. Remember the African Championships last year when he Negative split that 1:42.9x? so even if it goes out in 51 or 52 i think he will be in good shape.

nathan hale wrote:

In a non-rabbited race I think he'll have some trouble.

His coach should have found him an unrabbited race before Worlds to get some experience. All he does now is follow the rabbit for 400 and then today hold off 1 guy.

What's he doing to do when a bunch of guys are right on him at 400?

I was thinking the same thing as you that he should have pracyiced in a non-rabbited race but then realized the Kenyan trials probably didn't have a rabbit (or did they?) and he crushed everyone there.

But i think what's going to make world's very interesting in so many events is exactly your comment of, "What's he doing to do when a bunch of guys are right on him at 400?"

Rudisha is the man.. Nick symmonds is not predictable and and i dont think he will make it to finals.. coz i know you letsrun guys are routing for him day and night..

Yeah i know you guys want Nick symmonds to beat Rudisha so bad and that is not happened this decade..i would get in shape and kick Nick symmonds ass in 800m too

If there is not a rabbit you think Rudisha is going to go out in 58? Come on this guy will lead wire to wire knowing that he can run 1:40.

mnemosyne wrote:

Has everyone forgotten that Rudisha got spanked at WC's in 2009? He's the favorite, sure, but he's not unbeatable, and he's not in world record shape like last year.

Um, have you forgotten that his pr was 1:43.53 going into worlds 2009? How can you compare the two?

He also seemed to peak about 2-3 weeks after worlds that year when he ran his big break through race.

Agreed. And this is the guy that soloed a 1:42 at the African Champs last year.

My fellow bloggers, Rudisha has run the fastest time on Kenyan soil during qualifiers/competions. Faster than Billy Konchella, Wilson Kipketer, the great Paul Ereng, etc. Do you think the Kenyan trials have pace setters? He is smarter tactically than at the '09 Worlds. Just has to stay fit.

nathan hale wrote:

In a non-rabbited race I think he'll have some trouble.

His coach should have found him an unrabbited race before Worlds to get some experience. All he does now is follow the rabbit for 400 and then today hold off 1 guy.

What's he doing to do when a bunch of guys are right on him at 400?

You have got to be kidding. I suspect you just don't follow the sport closely enough to make intelligent comments on this particular topic.

He has SOLOED a 1:42 to win African champs. He has gone WIRE TO WIRE in 1:43 to win Kenyan trials.

The guy has run 1:41-1:43 so many times it's obscene. He does it comfortably, while his competition might sniff 1:43 on a good day (with the exception of Kaki).

Look, he can go out in 50-low without blinking an eye. He probably jogs down the block to pick up milk at 50.2 400 pace. Nobody is going to be "right on him at 400" - and those that are won't have a 51-second back half to answer with. Doubtful that anyone who isn't named Charles Jock has the ability or the audacity to take it to Rusdisha and lead him out, and even so, who cares? Not Rusdisha, that's who. So someone like Jock goes 49-53 (dubious)...Rudisha goes 50-51 and has time to pose for the camera.

There are a million plausible ways for him to win this race, and very few for him to lose it. Of course he's "beatable" - everyone is. But he is probably the single biggest lock in Daegu in distances over 200m. Got another?

nathan hale wrote:

What's he doing to do when a bunch of guys are right on him at 400?

I must've been watching a different race in London. Because in the race I saw I saw 2 guys "right on him at 400" (Kaki and Lalang) and he won. In fact, Rudisha, for all intents and purposes, rabbited Kaki for ~700m of the race. Kaki stayed tucked in right behind the tall, loping Keyan until the straightaway and he STILL wasn't able to pass him.

Rudisha is the WR holder, he's run 1:43 or faster more times than anyone in the field.

"But But But Kaki ran a great 1500m. He's OBVIOUSLY stronger than Rudisha, aerobically, and will do better in the rounds!" This argument is weak at best. I'm not saying Rudisha can bust off as 1500m as fast as Kaki, but it would be quality. Keep in mind that Rudisha is coming off that ankle injury from earlier in the sumemr as well. He's only getting stronger and more fit.

Moral of the story, don't bet against the undefeated (this year) WR holder.

Have you looked at the schedule? He is incredibly strong but can he really run wire-to-wire sub 1:43 three times in 4 days? In the heat and humidity that's expected?

The question is not what he will do when there are guys on him, it's what he will do when there are 3-4 guys in front of him in the heats. Those guys will be racing it like a final but he has to approach those races tactically and get through rounds without expending all of his energy.

In the last 3 years he has run 95% of his races with a personal rabbit. He has gone unchallenged. He has never laid off the pace and smoked the last 300 just to practice doing it. He's never let himself get boxed in the second lap, just to practice getting out of it and making it through traffic.

I just checked the records of Rudisha since he missed out in WCH Berlin in 2009. I see all these races he has run without pacing.....everyone writing of his problems when people are around him in rounds and at bell etc......but it doesn't look like he has too many problems!! Nothing even of cruising in 2nd or 3rd during heats to conserve himself.

I think he wins ht, sf and final in Daegu.....

2009

1:44.85 1 WAF Thessaloníki 12 Sep

2010

1:46.1hA 1h4 NC Nairobi 24 Jun

1:45.51A 1s1 NC Nairobi 25 Jun

1:44.23A 1 NC Nairobi 26 Jun

1:50.51A 1h2 AfrC Nairobi 28 Jul

1:46.58A 1s2 AfrC Nairobi 29 Jul

1:42.84A 1 AfrC Nairobi 30 Jul

1:43.37 1 Cont Cup Split 5 Sep

2011

1:46.7hA 1h5 NC Nairobi 14 Jul

1:45.3hA 1s2 NC Nairobi 15 Jul

1:43.76A 1 NC Nairobi 16 Jul

categorically wrote:

The question is not what he will do when there are guys on him, it's what he will do when there are 3-4 guys in front of him in the heats.

The thing about Rudisha is that he gets off the line so fast, much of the time the pacer (when the race has a rabbit) has a hard time getting in front of him. I just don't see Rudisha being further back then 3rd at the bell. And if there are more than 3 in front of him, then those guys gone out too fast and will come back while Rudisha powers through. Plus he has enough of advantage on all but few guys that he can go really wide and still beat enough to move through the heats.

Even though he's not in WR form, he still seem strong, he looked good at Monaco IMO he still easily wins the gold.

If it's a slow race he does not need to lead from the gun. He's the fastest over 400m as well and can take the race from the bell

This thread gave me a good laugh. You doubters are a bunch of clowns.

His cadence APPEARS really slow because it IS really slow.

But he's of course capable of enormous power output such that he could miraculously double that turnover and complete the 100m from blocks in 11 seconds.

NOT.

However, I do think he will win WC's without too much trouble. He is an historical great, I think every bit the equal of someone like, say, Daniel Komen.

(although I know exactly squat about distance running)

Rudisha will not get beat. Some of you guys act like the 800 at worlds is gonna go out slow. Someone will take it out in sub 50. To the guy who mentioned Jock, as much as I'd love him to make the finals, it's gonna be a challenge for him, it's been a long season for him. It's tough to maintain for almost 3 months. He is fearless though, I like 800 guys that have the balls to run it that way. I'm not a big fan of sit and kick in the 800 and typically that doesn't work well in a WC 800.