1200 Hypothetical: Ngeny vs El Guerrouj vs Coe

BbBbBb wrote:

Coe was all-out in his 1000 WR. Maybe too much so as he went through 800m in 1:44.56 and faded in the last 200m. He talks about in "Born to Run."

And if you read "Running Free" then you'd know he believed he'd have run faster in Oslo but for 2 things:

1) He had solo run a 3:31 off 52 and 1:49 pace less than 4 days earlier in Stockholm, which had really taken it out of him. When asked by the press at Stockholm if he would still go for a record in Oslo, he replied, "No chance".

2) He had a blister on the ball of his foot for the Oslo race which burst during the race. It nearly caused him to pull out of the European Cup a few weeks later.

You also have to remember that was his 1 and only 1000m in 81. Ngeny needed a few attempts to get the record, by 0.22, and did so in Rieti. Had Coe had a few efforts and not had the problems in Oslo I'm sure he could have run 2:11 low in a Rieti.

Thanks Deano

I knew Ventolin and jennifer cruz would start going at it in this one. Keep it up!

Red Arrow (deanouk),

PLEASE STOP.

You continue to insult and desecrate the image of Sebastian Coe. Here in the States, we want to think of Coe as one of the all-time greatest bad@sses that ever raced.

However, you continue to make him out to be such a pansy, like a blister on his foot, he didn't have a rabbit, his hair was not cut that week. Have you ever seen the feet of Gebrselassie before and after a race, the blisters, the damage? The man makes no excuses.

Stop the embarrassment. Don't forget here we had Prefontaine, an over-achiever. A man that raced to glory with limited basic speed. You make Coe out to be an under-achiever, and there is nothing worse in sport than an under-achiever.

Red Arrow wrote:Ngeny needed a few attempts to get the record, by 0.22, and did so in Rieti

eh ?

he had 2 goes at 1k in '99

a 2'12.66 which likely indicated to him he coud do it

then broke it in the 2nd one

around that time he ran 6 races of 1500/mile with 4 being 3'28 & 2 of 3'29

ventolin^3 wrote:

Red Arrow wrote:Ngeny needed a few attempts to get the record, by 0.22, and did so in Rieti

eh ?

he had 2 goes at 1k in '99

a 2'12.66 which likely indicated to him he coud do it

then broke it in the 2nd one

around that time he ran 6 races of 1500/mile with 4 being 3'28 & 2 of 3'29

Ok, he had 2 attempts that were 7 weeks apart. The fact is that his time improved in the 2nd race by 0.7. It's unusual for someone to go out and run their fastest at a distance first time. Usually it requires 2 or 3 serious attempts to get the pace and feel of the distance.

Ngeny ran 8 races in those 7 weeks between the 2 1000's. 3 of those were in the Worlds.

Not quite sure what your problem is? You won't run your best with a blister, any runner knows that.

I have never made Coe out to be an under achiever. In a hypothetical perfect world I think he could have run faster. No different to what most posters do for a number of different athletes on here all the time.

I'm not deanouk. I've read his posts and we have similar opinions. That doesn't make us the same person.

so

no "few" attempts at 1k

now explain that if rieti was a season-goal-career-aim type of race for him, why an earth did he run a 3'29.19 win in brussels just 2/7 before wr ???

Red Arrow wrote:

Not quite sure what your problem is? You won't run your best with a blister, any runner knows that.

I have never made Coe out to be an under achiever. In a hypothetical perfect world I think he could have run faster. No different to what most posters do for a number of different athletes on here all the time.

I'm not deanouk. I've read his posts and we have similar opinions. That doesn't make us the same person.

The problem is that you're making excuses for a runner that doesn't need them. It's annoying.

Yes it does "red arrow". Your simply wrong. If your making hypothetical perfect races, then you have to do the same for everyone else. Meaning Coe wouldnt have a chance in hell beating Ngeny since he's slower at 1000m and even more slow at 1500m. The further away he goes from 1000m the larger Ngenys leaed grows on Coe and the lower you go from 1500m the larger the cap grows between NG and ELG. Anything under 1500m and ELG loses his advantage over the two. anything over 1000m and Co loses his advantage. But for Ngeny this IS his perfect spot. If there was ever a runner inbetween Coe and ELG it was Negny.

Ngeny

COE

ELG

>:) wrote:

Ngeny's PRs: 1:44.49 / 2:11.96 / 3:28.12 / 3:43.4 / 4:50.08 / 7:35.46

El Guerrouj's PRs: 1:47.18 / 2:16.85 / 3:26.0 / 3:43.12 / 4:44.79 / 7:23.09

Coe's PRs: 1:41.73 / 2:12.18 / 3:29.77 / 3:47.33 / 4:58.84 / 7:54.32

If Coe's 1000 was truly all out, then Ngeny would undoubtedly be better, since Ngeny would be better at 1000 and 1500. However, I doubt that Coe was really going all out on that 1000. El Guerrouj probably could've went 1:42.9 or so in the 800. What could Ngeny have run for 800 in ideal conditions?

Here is Coe's 1000m he is definitely hurting at the end. His stride breaks down into a shuffle of sorts near the tape. (Though a fast one)

Here is Ngeny's record. He has support for longer and a bit of company. He looks smoother than Coe at the end.

Vegeta wrote:

Yes it does "red arrow". Your simply wrong. If your making hypothetical perfect races, then you have to do the same for everyone else. Meaning Coe wouldnt have a chance in hell beating Ngeny since he's slower at 1000m and even more slow at 1500m. The further away he goes from 1000m the larger Ngenys leaed grows on Coe and the lower you go from 1500m the larger the cap grows between NG and ELG. Anything under 1500m and ELG loses his advantage over the two. anything over 1000m and Co loses his advantage. But for Ngeny this IS his perfect spot. If there was ever a runner inbetween Coe and ELG it was Negny.

Ngeny

COE

ELG

That's your opinion, fine. But from what your saying, it seems your views are based on the premise that Ngeny's and Coe's pbs at 1000m and 1500m are the absolute limit of what they were capable. I do not believe they were, so it's my opinion that Coe would be a match for both Ngeny and EL G over 1200m.

Just because Ngeny ran 0.22 faster 18 years later, that doesn't mean that if they were put together in either 99 or 81, that both would run their exact same pbs.

ventolin^3 wrote:

so

no "few" attempts at 1k

now explain that if rieti was a season-goal-career-aim type of race for him, why an earth did he run a 3'29.19 win in brussels just 2/7 before wr ???

Urm! That be the EPO me thinks!

how woud a bucket of darbepoetin in the 2/7 have re-energised him ??

Jeffster!!!!! wrote:

>:) wrote:

Ngeny's PRs: 1:44.49 / 2:11.96 / 3:28.12 / 3:43.4 / 4:50.08 / 7:35.46

El Guerrouj's PRs: 1:47.18 / 2:16.85 / 3:26.0 / 3:43.12 / 4:44.79 / 7:23.09

Coe's PRs: 1:41.73 / 2:12.18 / 3:29.77 / 3:47.33 / 4:58.84 / 7:54.32

If Coe's 1000 was truly all out, then Ngeny would undoubtedly be better, since Ngeny would be better at 1000 and 1500. However, I doubt that Coe was really going all out on that 1000. El Guerrouj probably could've went 1:42.9 or so in the 800. What could Ngeny have run for 800 in ideal conditions?

Here is Coe's 1000m he is definitely hurting at the end. His stride breaks down into a shuffle of sorts near the tape. (Though a fast one)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvMxL3ia8TM

Here is Ngeny's record. He has support for longer and a bit of company. He looks smoother than Coe at the end.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY21WbOYHrg&feature=related

To be fair it's hard to see Ngeny's face up close in the straight on that video. He was only 0.2 faster than Coe over that last 200m (27.3 to 27.5)

Looking at the splits of each race, Ngeny ran his last 3 x 200m in 27.3 apiece. Pretty consistent

Coe went through 400m slower, and his last 3 went 27.1, 26.2, 27.5.

I'd say he probably overcooked it on that 4th 200m on the back straight, and that's a possible cause of his tying up in the last 40m. As Red Arrow says, he also had a blister burst.

deanouk wrote: As Red Arrow says, he also had a blister burst.

Wah, wah, wah.

Red Arrow wrote:

That's your opinion, fine. But from what your saying, it seems your views are based on the premise that Ngeny's and Coe's pbs at 1000m and 1500m are the absolute limit of what they were capable. I do not believe they were, so it's my opinion that Coe would be a match for both Ngeny and EL G over 1200m.

Fair enough . . . but anyone can sit around saying they think so and so would have ran a few seconds faster. They ran what they ran, anything else is pure speculation. I would guess that very few runners reach their absolute physical limit in any race, time-wise.

deanouk wrote:Looking at the splits of each race, Ngeny ran his last 3 x 200m in 27.3 apiece. Pretty consistent

Coe went through 400m slower, and his last 3 went 27.1, 26.2, 27.5.

I'd say he probably overcooked it on that 4th 200m on the back straight, and that's a possible cause of his tying up in the last 40m. As Red Arrow says, he also had a blister burst.

moron

how the fuuck can you drivel on on about coe "overcooking" it with a quick late 200 when noah ran a suicidal

49.9

opener, which is 1'41.8-pace, whereas coe went

51.3

ventolin^3 wrote:

deanouk wrote:Looking at the splits of each race, Ngeny ran his last 3 x 200m in 27.3 apiece. Pretty consistent

Coe went through 400m slower, and his last 3 went 27.1, 26.2, 27.5.

I'd say he probably overcooked it on that 4th 200m on the back straight, and that's a possible cause of his tying up in the last 40m. As Red Arrow says, he also had a blister burst.

moron

how the fuuck can you drivel on on about coe "overcooking" it with a quick late 200 when noah ran a suicidal

49.9

opener, which is 1'41.8-pace, whereas coe went

51.3

Darling, we all see what we want to see. An argument can be made that Wilson Kipketer could have run 1:40.5 and he might have been the best 1200 meter runner in history. It is not likely, but it is possible. I would say that Kipketer never ran a 1500/mile with any degree of seriousness, much as you appear to believe that Lagat never ran an 800 seriously.