Alamirew ran two sub-3:44 back to back. Think German Fernandez X 2 :)
Alamirew ran two sub-3:44 back to back. Think German Fernandez X 2 :)
Alamiew, Choge, Kipchoge, Soi all under 7:30 in Doha.
Abel Kiprop 3:31 in 1,500.
Youtube says "the video is not available in your Country". Can someone post smth available for Europeans on Youtube. Thanks
Too many studs. They won't go under 7:30.
Can you imagine running 7:37 and coming in 16th!?
Could we possibly see Alamirew rise up and dethrone Bekele on the track at 5000 or 10000m in the next olympics, much like Bekle did with Gebreselassie?
Think about it. Geb won two olympic 10000 titles, but Bekele defeated him in the 2003 WC 10k, a year before he won the 10000m and silver in the 5000m in Athens. Bekele then went on to win his historic double in Beijing in 2008.
Alamirew seems to be rising up and making his presence known, much like Bekele did in the WC year leading up to the '04 games. Bekele is also having injury problems, much like Geb suffered.
I think Bekele has the possibility at greater longevity on the track then Geb, but could we possibly see him dethroned at a major championship, a la Bekele and Geb?
it's possible, but the longetivity that bekele + gebrselassie have had is remarkable. And don't ever count out... "the master once again" although he will be near 30....
It will be useful when he finally runs a top level 5k, so we know what his ability is like at the medal distance. So far, he only has a 13'16pb which really gives us nothing to go on
With virtually no info to go on but an experienced eye, & looking like he couda gone at least 7'25 if Big Choge had kept the pace up between 2k - 2600m & most people suggesting he has to be in sub-12'50 shape, I tried a few estimates with :
400/800 just to nearest 0.25s, as it really is vague for him :
49.75 / 1'46.00 ->3'29.8 , 4'46.5 , 7'24.0 , 12'50.0
50.00 / 1'46.25 ->3'29.9 , 4'46.3 , 7'23.2 , 12'47.4
50.25 / 1'46.50 ->3'29.9 , 4'46.1 , 7'22.3 , 12'44.8
This is just very vague, but I think 1st 2 lines are possibles, with slight favouritism to 2nd, as most are saying he is a certain sub-12'50 guy.
Actually, looking at those a 7'23 is a time I would not ascribe to anyone else in the world currently on the circuit ( I think the best Kenyans if they run their perfect race could go close to 7'25 but not below ), so he is currently head & shoulders above anyone else at 3k, but looking at that 5k, I do think others could threaten 12'47.
I have a sneaky feeling that 3k is his best event & that he won't dominate as easily over 5k this year ( but that can off course change in the next few years as he gets stronger )
I also think he has a possible sub-3'30 in him ( Lil Choge has done it ) currently
actually, looking at those again, the 1st line attracts me more
7'24 does look more like him currently, but that woud indicate more like 12'50 ability, which isn't quick enough to dominate ( tons of guys 12'50 - 12'55 currently )
the comparison is obviously with komen for now
so provisionally this kid is maybe
49.75 / 1'46.00 -> 3'29.8 , 4'46.5 , 7'24.0 , 12'50.0
for komen i reckon at his peak :
50.25 / 1'46.25 -> 3'29.0 , 4'44.7 , 7'19.6 , 12'39.1 , 26'30.1
notice how just a small difference in the 400 & 800 times translates to such a big difference at 3k/5k
i'll add in li'l choge who has been his most dogged pursuer this year ( this is more like from a coupla years ago when he went 1'44 & 3'29 - i think he's close to that again )
48.50 / 1'44.50 -> 3'28.7 , 4'46.1 , 7'25.6 , 12'57.1
shows why he's run him close over 3k, but there is likely 1.5s+ gap in intrinsic ability between them, so he won't be favoured in any fast races
gus though will be a huge threat in slower races - that is some terrific speed he has
better add in big choge who traditionally is main kenyan threat over 5k
i think his current form is
51.00 / 1'47.75 -> 3'31.9 , 4'48.4 , 7'25.2 , 12'48.45
i still have feeling big choge may get some wins in fast races if he has confidence ( somewhat lacking since doha last year )
that 1500 looks lot better than his 3'33pb, but i've seen him run one or 2 of his fast 1500/mile & he did run them stoopidly, like he was an actual 1500 guy & trying to kick with the specialist 1500 guys on the last lap ( in which he was always going to get slaughtered ) - if you have sub-12'50 ability, you don't wait 'til last lap in a 1500, you make the long drive from home from at least 500m or better still, 600m out ( same reason why moorcroft only ran 3'49 back in '82 when he really shouda been capable of 3'31/3'48 )
Gotta give some props to Kipchoge here; finally got a pr in the 3000 after seven years, even if it was by only 0.06 seconds.
7777 wrote:
it's possible, but the longetivity that bekele + gebrselassie have had is remarkable. And don't ever count out... "the master once again" although he will be near 30....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=828BG3poro0
I love seeing this video. If you look at Bekele's face when they are approaching 200m to go, it looks like he is thinking, "You busted your nut too soon, Sihine." He's got a look that he knows he's got the win when Sihine starts his drive just over 300m out.
Ya Kipchoge has had an impressive career I must say. Didnt know he'd last this long and I thought he might have reached his peak long ago.
On another note it very important to remember that when I saw Bekele run his 7:25's he was alone and/or pushing the pace for a long time. Alamirew has perfect pacing for this 727 and Bekele never had anyone near him when he ran his 725s (as far as i can remember... I've seen most of his races for the last 5 years or so. So if Bekele in his prime was in this race he might have been a step ahead of Alamirew...
kennster woud been at/around 3k wr at his peak if he had had the perfect race
rough estimate for him in his prime ( say '04/'05 ) just to nearest 0.25s for 400/800 :
51.75 / 1'48.25 ->3'31.1 , 4'46.4 , 7'19.9 , 12'35.1 , 26'09.5
compared to geb, again just rough estimate to nearest 0.25s for 400/800 :
51.50 / 1'48.00 ->3'31.0 , 4'46.6 , 7'20.8 , 12'37.7 , 26'17.8
to
51.25 / 1'47.50 ->3'30.1 , 4'45.3 , 7'18.9 , 12'34.5 , 26'11.5
note : haile put in a blistering 2'27.83 last km in his 12'39 ( even pace wouda been ~ 2'32 ) with a last lap of 56.9 - he shouda gone more like 12'36/12'37 that day off better pacing & of his 26'22wr, he has been noted to have said it was "easy"
Also, Geb did finish his world record 5000m with a fast last lap.
Compared to Bekele who, if i'm not mistake, basically ran 60.8-60.9 for every lap from start to finish, or something close to that effect.
Kipchoge is having a very good season, started indoors with sub 7:30 and sub 13:00...
He's having a very good and LONG career!
Couple of things.
Kipchoge has been banging out world class times since 2003. Very impressive. This might be a 12:4x year for him - which would put him in good position for a medal.
I am thinking Bekele is going to try his best to duck Alam. He might just do the 10000m @ WC and Alam might do the 5000m. If you notice Bekele ducking Alam - then you know Bekele is scared of losing to this guy. And he should be.
Should be a very interesting next 2 years as the challenger will try to dethrone the champion (and the champion duck and hide as much as possible). Either way some epic races in store - similar to the short-lived Komen/Geb rivalry.
I'll be really impressed with the kid when I see him do something like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRQOl6zoTJ8
If you look closely, you can actually see Mottram's balls shrinking from about 5:20 onward.
You get the impression KB didn't take kindly to Mottram's display at the finish of the Pre Classic 2-mile earlier that year, when he beat KB's little brother.