^1600 isn't a mile. It's a 1-1/2 second difference so it's worth 4:02-4:03 or so...Big difference between 1600 and mile when you are talking about sub-4 equivalency.
^1600 isn't a mile. It's a 1-1/2 second difference so it's worth 4:02-4:03 or so...Big difference between 1600 and mile when you are talking about sub-4 equivalency.
The standard accepted conversion 1.08.
3.46.0 = 4.04.1, so LV ran slightly faster. Not sure how many attempts AW had to get that indoor sub-4mile, but the idea isn't to chase it as many times as you can - there is an outdoor season to follow afterall.
A mile is 1609. Thus, the additional nine meters should add a little less than 1.5 (that would be a 66 second pace for a lap) to the ballpark calculation I did. So, sure, adjust that ballpark to around 4:02/4:03, if you like, but that's still faster than Verzbicas ran, and Verzbicas did a hell of a job, in my opinion. Rogestedt just did a little better.
Can you provide a link to the results for Rogestedt's 3:46?
Canadeh wrote:
The standard accepted conversion 1.08.
3.46.0 = 4.04.1, so LV ran slightly faster. Not sure how many attempts AW had to get that indoor sub-4mile, but the idea isn't to chase it as many times as you can - there is an outdoor season to follow afterall.
^^^^This is the correct conversion. It is the one used by the NCAA and all knowledgable statisticians. All other "it's only 109 extra meters so it should be blah blah" are ignorant of the amount of empirical data (as well as the physiology of slowing while adding distance) that back up the 1.08 factorial.
Rowe won by 3 seconds
death by achilles tendinosis wrote:
That's a nice mark by Rowe, but he did it outdoors in the Australian summer. Rogestedt was indoors and in the middle of a Scandinavian winter, so I think his number is a bit more impressive.
To the other guy, I see nothing misleading about my original post. Neither was it intended to be anti-Verzbicas. I just mentioned LV to draw attention to Rogestedt's achievement.
I don't know if Rogestedt ran a 3:46 but in the recap of his world youth championship, it sounds like he has tremendous speed, walking down the whole field in the final, so that's potential for you. 1:50 isn't close to the American record for age 16, I don't think, but finishing like that does indicate that he's going to be something in a few years. If he's running 3:46 now and is finally healthy, I predict he will break 3:40 this year outdoors.
As for Burke's prediction that Verzbicas would run 3:30 within the next couple years, that's just crazy talk. Where has he shown that kind of wheels? Maybe he will break 13:30 in the 5k or even 13:20 by the end of 2012, but I don't think that he has shown anything to us to indicate that he'd be world class in two years. If it's the training, don't underestimate how valuable the extra aerobic and strength work has been from the swimming and cycling.
ok this will end the LV discussion...
at 18 yrs old. german fernandez ran a 3:55 indoor mile solo. so had he been in this race yesterday at the time he would have been in the hunt for the W.
two years later german hasn't matched that performance and is in "comback" mode so to speak
so unless LV is flawless in training and never gets hurt and runs the races of his life, he won't match up to german and will def not take his junior 5k record.
i'd even go further to compare LV to a knock off version of luke puskedra or chris derrek maybe. but to his credit he hasn't been a pure runner since he's also taken the tri very serious.
now can he be on the chris d./luke p level for college, certainly and thats great. but the way ppl are hyping him up is as if he's the top young runner we've had in a while and well he def does not stack up to a german fernandez
had h.s senior german race the current LV, german would kick his ass across the board simple as that.
germans senior outdoor state results is a clear indicator of that
in xc, LV wins that battle
Results are here. He ran 3:46.09 for third place, with one and two running 3:45 point.
Good for him. From the photo of the 800m World Youth Race, he looks like an 8/15 guy and it would be nice to have more of those on the world scene.
Born the same month/year as LV, and their 1500/mile PRs are now very similar, but LV will likely move up in distance. No point to negatively slanted comparisons.
lonely guy wrote:
yesterday Silas Kiplacat killed 3 birds in a span for 4 minutes, with his bare claws. Can Johan do that?
POD
8 Lukas Verzbicas USA 3:47.60
1500m enroute from this weekend
Ferenc wrote:
A 3:46 1500 is a very nice mark but it's not clearly superior to Verzbicas' run in Boston. If Rogestedt ran exactly 3:46, that's the equivalent of a 4:04 mile, slightly slower than Verzbicas.
I completely agree that Rogestedt is one to keep an eye on, but you don't need to rely on inaccurate or misleading information to justify doing so.
Hold on cowboy! Rogestedt's run was in an 'unpaced' race and he was just half a second off winning (so he was in the mix); Verzbicas got smashed by nine seconds in a race he had a lot of opportunity to run much faster. So sorry but you are also being misleading in not giving all the information. I don't in any way consider Verz"s run as superior.....
1500 m
1 Jonas Hamm FIN 2.5.80 3:45.49 SB
2 Johan Walldén SWE 24.7.87 3:45.74 PB
3 Johan Rogestedt SWE 27.1.93 3:46.09 PB
4 Riku Marttinen FIN 20.5.87 3:46.61 PB
5 Thomas Solberg Eide NOR 20.11.92 3:48.24 PB
6 Vidar Dahle NOR 26.2.88 3:56.15 PB
Rogestedt ran 3:46.09 for 1500m. That is a 4:04.18 mile using the standard accepted 1.08 conversion factor. It is nice, but a little slower than Verzbicas' 4:03.88. No need to lie in order to make Rogestedt sound faster.
Doug,
18 years old. The age of kenyan athletes is NEVER suspect.
Yep, he looks 18.
I watched that 800meter final live on eurosport, it used to be in youtube but has been removed now. Rogestedt is last at the bell and finishes in final 200 in something ridiculous like 24.xx.
I also raced him once a few years ago over 800m in Sweden and his finishing pace there was amazing even then.
Also just found out he has a training blog
http://johanrogestedt.sportsblogg.se/
the translations aren't anything amazing though.
Are you guys kidding? Verzbicas ran 4:03 on that tiny indoor track in the first week of February. He will comfortably go under 4 in the outdoor season at least once--probably with no help from anyone. I predict he will run 3:58 by June, if not sooner. The mile will never be his best event.
The "pure" runners here are missing the point on Verzbicas' potential. His speed, which is impressive, is probably not on par with his strength over the distances. He's run under 5 minutes per mile for 5k **after** the 1 mile race swim and 20 mile bike leg in triathlons...
To me, the only thing that could ruin him is going into the meat grinder that is the U of Oregon running program and getting burned out and injured. U of Oregon has burned out many young runners - their goal is not to bring each runner to their potential - their goal is to win NCAA championships, which is not the same thing.
I think Verzbicas could be running at the elite level for the 10k in the next few years IF he stays healthy and gets a coach that can bring him along without trying to do too much too soon.
1.08 I think is to fast. Timed many a guy and checked on this. Seemed to me maybe about 1.46 for top HS milers at best, from 1600 to full mile line. Maybe college and pros a shade faster. Let me add this up. If a guy runs 1.08 in the last 9 meters of the mile he is running what 1.08x10=10.8 speed say for what 90 meters. So another 1.08 for next 9 puts him at 11.88 pace at 99 meters. So what maybe 12.00 flat speed if he is doing 1.08 per 9 meters? If I remember right its maybe actually 9 meters and a shade more. Like maybe a foot? But 12 flat pace for 100 meters is what 4x12=48 per 400. If an average of say 1.31x10=13.1 at 90+1.31=14.41 at 99. So say 14.6x4=58.4 Also your talking the end of a mile run. All Im saying is the 1.08 seems to fast.
I'm afraid Verbizbas will end up like Vanessa Fernandes.