When will the women break the 4 minute mile?

Nutella1 wrote:

How many of those are clean? Why are most of them late 90's? (hint: EPO) The newest record is over 13 years old now.

What if this table will never change again?

Sorry, forgot the link/times:

1. 3:50.46 Yunxia Qu China 11 September 1993 Beijing

2. 3:50.98 Bo Jiang China 18 October 1997 Shanghai

3. 3:51.34 Yinglai Lang China 18 October 1997 Shanghai

4. 3:51.92 Junxia Wang China 11 September 1993 Beijing

5. 3:52.47 Tatyana Kazankina Soviet Union 13 August 1980 Zürich

6. 3:53.91 Lili Yin China 18 October 1997 Shanghai

7. 3:53.96 Paula Ivan Romania 1 October 1988 Seoul

8. 3:53.97 Lixin Lan China 18 October 1997 Shanghai

9. 3:54.23 Olga Dvirna Soviet Union 27 July 1982 Kiev

10. 3:54.52 Ling Zhang China 18 October 1997 Shanghai

A Skeptic wrote:

I'm not guessing we are going to see a woman drop a 47-low quarter this year and knock Marita Koch off the top of the list.

I believe that the IAAF will drop Marita Kochs time from the list BEFORE another woman runs faster.

Nutella1 wrote:

A Skeptic wrote:

I'm not guessing we are going to see a woman drop a 47-low quarter this year and knock Marita Koch off the top of the list.

I believe that the IAAF will drop Marita Kochs time from the list BEFORE another woman runs faster.

If they drop her they will have to drop quite a few others.

The 4.00 mile is the equivalent of a 3.42 1500m (59sec/400m). It would require at least an 800m ability of 1.50(55sec/400m) and likely a 400m ability of 51sec. It's not like a 400m runner moving up to 800m either - as with Kratochvilova (running 1.53 off a 400m of 47.99)or Miles-Clark (running 1.56 off a 49.4) - as this won't work for the 1500m/Mile.

A woman with 52.0sec 400m speed might have a shot if this 400m time is done when young (HS) and endurance is built up over many years (not as an end of career move up in distance). But it would be likely that someone that fast would be running a 4/8 combination and specialize with low mileage (see Vessey).

As to men's mile of 3.30 - that's a 3.15 1500m(52sec/400m), and is 2.10 1000m pace! This would require likely a sub-1.38 800m(49sec/lap) and a 46sec 400m. But that's with VERY good speed-endurance capability. It's going to take a while to get under 3.40 for the mile, then 3.20 for 1500m, before thinking of 3.15/3.30M. With the current trend away from 800m/1500m type runners (due to specialization at 800m), it may be difficult to develop the speed necessary to go that fast for 1500m.

when they grow some balls.