50k WR - if seriously contested, WHO and WHAT TIME?

^^^^

Kornfield wrote:

You only picked Baldini because he's white, which is a good call because the Africans don't waste their time in races with no money.

Lorenzo the Magnificent wrote:

Seko could have nailed a good one. He did the over over distance.

That was my thought! The Japanese, especially some of the men early in the 2000s, trained over distance like mad. I think that 50k gets into different energy systems than 42.2 at this speed, and that some of the obvious choices might actually fall off sooner than people expect.

If it's all about mileage, think about our US ultra talent!

What about Karnazes??

Baldini closed Athens in 14:12 from 35-40km... Baldini is a very good choice based on his training background and marathon performances.

However, as we have seen from Gebrselassie, if there is a record out there, he will get it. So, in a hypothetical, I could see Baldini nailing a 2:36 and Geb attempting a couple of times with DNF or bombs and then blowing out a 2:29:58 for the hell of it.

I really doubt it would be Baldini. Khannouchi's marathon pr is 2 minutes faster while KK's 10pr is 0:02 slower than SB. To find the guy with 50k wr potential you want a blazing fast marathoner who is relatively weak over 10k -- a guy like KK.

That said, Geb is just ridiculous at pretty much every distance, so you cannot write him off. My guess is that it would not be Geb though. Probably some 2:05 guy who is 99% slowtwitch. I would think that this hypothetical guy could run about 2:31 and change for 50k.

the smartest letsrunner wrote:

That was my thought! The Japanese, especially some of the men early in the 2000s, trained over distance like mad. I think that 50k gets into different energy systems than 42.2 at this speed, and that some of the obvious choices might actually fall off sooner than people expect.

I'm not sure that's true (I have not run 50K, but I've talked to plenty of people who have and they say it's just a long marathon). The 50 mile is another matter (and 100K and 100 mile are very different).

With very few exceptions, great marathoners are going to be great 50K runners.

I agree very little difference between marathon and 50k and I've ran a boat load of both.

I feel properly trained no more than 5 seconds a mile difference with proper pacing. The big point is less room for error. If you went out too fast like a marathon and started blowing up at 22 miles, the last almost 5 miles of the 50k would be horrendous.

So properly paced, sub 2:06 marathon split and 50k time of:

2:29:18!

I agree with this guy (below). And I think maybe 2:32 for KK at his healthiest in the late 90s. It is not the same race as the marathon. There is much more of a factor of glycogen depletion. Someone who jogs ultras may tell you a 42 k is the same race as a 50k, but it is not the same if you are trying to run steady-fast near the red-line (A.T.). Perhaps 2:07:30 plus 25 minutes, which would be miraculous.

myguessis wrote:

I really doubt it would be Baldini. Khannouchi's marathon pr is 2 minutes faster while KK's 10pr is 0:02 slower than SB. To find the guy with 50k wr potential you want a blazing fast marathoner who is relatively weak over 10k -- a guy like KK.

That said, Geb is just ridiculous at pretty much every distance, so you cannot write him off. My guess is that it would not be Geb though. Probably some 2:05 guy who is 99% slowtwitch. I would think that this hypothetical guy could run about 2:31 and change for 50k.

DontFeedTheTroll wrote:

I'm not sure that's true (I have not run 50K, but I've talked to plenty of people who have and they say it's just a long marathon). The 50 mile is another matter (and 100K and 100 mile are very different).

With very few exceptions, great marathoners are going to be great 50K runners.

I'm really not sure.

I think that for me (and I'm guessing your friends), a 2:4x marathoner, doing the 50k in 3:2x might not be wildly different in preparation.

But these guys race the marathon more like many of us race the half marathon! 2:03-2:04 - well under 3:00/km is pretty close to their redline, and while staying in that pocket is their gift it's not truly a test of attrition for them. Most of them have DNFs on their record, no? I don't know that a Wanjiru/Kwambai/Kibet would have it together from 42-50km in the same way Baldini or some of the Japanese would...

I'd put my money on Gharib. Very solid marathoner.

the 50k is only a little bit over the 42.2k marathon distance..

I'd give it to the marathon world record holder or the current top marathon runner. It's barely any different... Why is this even being debated? It's like asking who would hold the WR if a 12,000m race were staged; probably the guy who holds the 10,000m record....

myguessis wrote:

Probably some 2:05 guy who is 99% slowtwitch.

I always find it amazing to think of someone running 4:47/mile for 26.2 miles as being mostly slow twitch. But that's only because I can't handle that pace for 5K. I'm lethargic twitch. Anyway, carry on.

Marrow2000 wrote:

It's barely any different... Why is this even being debated? It's like asking who would hold the WR if a 12,000m race were staged; probably the guy who holds the 10,000m record....

I find it hard to believe that you have even run a marathon.

I don't think that anyone who has, including most elites (especially most elites!) would say that 42.2-50k is as similar in terms of physiology and preparation as 10-12k.

In the 50k, I would put someone like KK at his prime, 2:05 with not a great half marathon and no 10k to speak of (RELATIVELY) way ahead of a Wanjiru or others moving up from the 10,000/HM.

Why don't some of you show up and show 'em how it should be done?

USATF 50k Championships (road, not trail)

http://www.usatf.org/events/2011/USA50kmChampionships/index.asp

snert wrote:

Why don't some of you show up and show 'em how it should be done?

USATF 50k Championships (road, not trail)

http://www.usatf.org/events/2011/USA50kmChampionships/index.asp

Maybe because USATF hold so many "national championships" that's it feel meaningless? (7 miles???)

Not that I personally would have a hope, but I'm guessing that USATF 50k doesn't feature in the planning of someone who makes a living running 42.2

Josh Cox in 2:26:21

Paula Radcliffe could beat Josh Cox in a 50k.

There is a significant but not huge difference between the marathon and 50k (I've run both). WAY more of a difference than between 10k and 12k. This is because, as others have stated, the glycogen factor (the energy systems used in 10k vs 12k are virtually identical). This is a significant factor in the marathon but a HUGE factor in a 50k.

So, yeah, you definitely need to find a superfast marathoner if you want to get the record into the low 2:30s, but a 2:04 guy won't necessarily beat a 2:05 guy.

Does anyone know if anyone has ever broken 2:05:30 without sub-28:00 speed? If so, find this guy and put him in a 50k.

Finally, someone who gets it!

I don't know why all of these supposed students of the sport just assume you could run the current top 10 in the marathon and they'd finish the 50k in the same order.

Gharib is a good thought, yeah. Here's another: Ebuya in 10 years?