What skylinerunner said.
What skylinerunner said.
My guess is that after Bekele runs 10k in 26:30, everyone except a few guys, probably just Geb, would be done. Then Bekele dies.
this is an interesting thread
I agree w/ previous posters that it would go out fast to eliminate mid-d guys, then slow. So it would be attrition. You would have to get the last few guys to quit, not beat them. A very different goal
like the Stephen King novel, "the Long Walk"
Wanjiru
No 800m runner is going to blast anybody out even a 1:40 800 would only mean 33 second laps for 3 laps. 800 time of 2:12 could stay in the race.
3:28 for 1500m = runners would need a 3:41 1500m to stay.
This would bring the total race distance right down but no 1500m man could win the race as lots of guys can run under 3:41 so if there were no prizes other than for the win, they may not bother.
If Kenny Bekele took he race as a flat out 5k and ran around 12:40 then to not be kicked out runners would need a sub 13:10 5k PR to stay in the race. Still not enough to win outright.
If KB chose to it out in a 26:20 10k instead, runners would need a 26:52 to stay in the race that would put them in the top 25 on the all time rankings over 10k.
Somebody with a better knowledge of the 10k could probably work out exatly who would be left after that?
It's going to go to one of the guys who is at least a 1/2 marathon specialist if not a marathoner. Specifically one who can handle surges and change of pace during a race (so Ryan Hall is out). All they need to be able to do is surge away from each shorter specialist as they get close to them.
If they can hold off a 3:45 miler for an extra 10-15 seconds he'll die. If they can hold off the 12:50 5k guy for an extra 30 seconds, he'll die. Someone like KB MIGHT be able to start a really strong kick around 25-27 minutes and lap whoever is left, but if the others mostly let him go and wait til he nears them they can then kick away from him. After that it does come down to attrition and who can survive the most surges before they hit a wall.
By the way, is this track going to have a water stop?
This reminds me of a race that I heard about a little while ago. It was a 5k but after every lap, the person in last place was eliminated. And it would go on like this until the last person left ran the last lap on his own. I think Chris Clark may have won it.
Dean Karnazes.
Off the Grid wrote:
this is an interesting thread
I agree w/ previous posters that it would go out fast to eliminate mid-d guys, then slow. So it would be attrition. You would have to get the last few guys to quit, not beat them. A very different goal
like the Stephen King novel, "the Long Walk"
Great reference! That's my favorite Stephen King story.
This concept as a whole is interesting...I bet you could get some college kids o the same level to give it a shot. Wouldn't be as fun to watch, but you could get a feel for tactics and stuff that way...
The idea of "Devil take the hindmost" has bee around since the 17th century
luv2run wrote:
Cycling has a race called the miss and out (on the velodrome).
Every few laps the person who is last gets pulled. Interesting race to watch.
I think Wanjiru would win. Geb can't handle surges like Wanjiru. And Bekele is injured right now anyways.
danny komen wins lapping everyone with his sub8 two mile
T.L. the stallion wrote:
danny komen wins lapping everyone with his sub8 two mile
No. Because as soon as KB sees that that is what Komen is trying he simply settles in at about 4:15 pace, waits for him to get within about 20m then accelerates just long enough for Komen to fade. That would eliminate alot of the pure marathoners though.
We do a devil take the hind most at our home invitational. I know it is off topic, but it is pretty cool none the less. We do it over the 2 mile (yes, we have a track that is 440y) distance, starting with 9 guys. This leaves 2 guys to duke it out over the last lap. This year will be the 3rd year we've done it.
1st year. It turned into a jog for 325m and a field sprint for 75m. The strongest runner in the field was caught napping and eliminated on lap 3. Winning time was really slow (11:20s)
2nd year. The strongest runner in the field (a 10:04 guy) took it out really hard and got away from the field. Another guy got away after him. Both slowed down quite a bit after running well faster than their PR pace for the first 2-3 laps. The rest of the guys were left to battle it out to not get eliminated. It was less exciting this way, but for a guy that knows he is stronger than everyone in the field, it would have been stupid to run it any other way.
Sorry for the bird walking.
I'd say a great 5k-10k guy would have the best chance in the race as proposed by the OP. Put the race on a 400m oval and you shift the advantage to a marathon type.
Dean Karnazes cannot run a 26:52 10k
This could be quite an interesting race to watch and could be quite entertaining with quite a few possible variations.
* Races where all runners run as individuals
* Or teams race for team points, where all members points are counted.
* Team race where only top runners score and then we might see team tactics where the milers try and catch out the marathon guys.
* One hour time limit, or distance limit of perhaps 20km, so it doesn't turn into an ultra marathon.
Lazy eye wrote:
Dean Karnazes cannot run a 26:52 10k
Come on. That's probably only because he doesn't focus on the shorter distances. The guy runs 100+ miles at time!!!! Through the entire night, and orders a pizza for himself while running.
I think it's fairly obvious that a guy like that could manage to run a 10k at a pretty good clip.
The best tactic for a race like this would be to almost get lapped.
Lets assume we have a WR 800, 1500, 3k, 5k and 10k gut in the race...
800 WR = 1:41 so the ultimate winner would only have to run the first 800 under ~ 2:11 (no problem)
1500 WR = 3:26: winner would have to pass 1500 under ~ 3:56 (31.5s per 200m pace - no problem)
3000 WR = 7:20: Winner would have to pass 3000 under 7:56 which is 31.7s per lap pace (still very doable)
5000 WR = 12:36: Winner would have to pass 5000 in ~13:08 (31.5s per lap)
10000m WR 26:17: Winner would have to pass 10000 in 26:59 (31.8s/lap)
Half marathon WR is 58:23: Winner would have to pass 21.1km in ~ 58:57 (33.5s pace)
I don't think anyone is going to lose this in the first 5000m... it also seems very likely that someopne could go out in 13;08 for 5000m and hang on for a 26:59 10k. However it becomes much tougher to run 58:57 for 21.1km after going out in 13:08 and 26:59. To do this you would have to run 28:49 pace for the last 10k of the half marathon. I think the break point comes somewhere between 15K and 21.1K
I think a more entertaining race would be the same format, only whoever is in last at the end of each lap has to drop out. Every lap would be a race to not be in last place.
You said what I was trying to say in an earlier post. Your version is much clearer. Thanks!