Next Person to break the mile world record?

Dr. Dorian wrote:

I dont mean to take over this thread and i hope that this post doesnt get away from the original question, but this seems like a good place to ask, who will be the next to break 4 in HS in the US, and when?

Much much better question.

WR? That person hasn't been born yet or is just a baby IMHO.

lane 8 wrote:

Dr. Dorian wrote:

I dont mean to take over this thread and i hope that this post doesnt get away from the original question, but this seems like a good place to ask, who will be the next to break 4 in HS in the US, and when?

Much much better question.

WR? That person hasn't been born yet or is just a baby IMHO.

More obvious answer: Lukas Verzbicas, spring 2011.

Wheating is a cute prediction but it is the NEXT person to break the mile world record

Silas Kiplagat, Asbel Kiprop, hell even Augustine Choge have potential for it. They need to get into a fast paced 1500 where the first 400 is 55 and the second 400 doesn't slow down to 58 like most of the Diamond League races.

I also agree Rudisha could be a threat at the mile. I don't think he could whip out a 3:30 1500m right now but I think it is easily an event he could learn if he spent a few years for it. He should go for an 800-1500 double at the Olympics or WC before his career is over.

fame or fade wrote:Ventolin takes longer time than usual to do his calculations, this must be a hard nut to crack.

it's because it's been asked so many times & pretty pointless by now as there is no candidate out there

asbel/choge/silas are all capable of 3'28-flat in a perfect race with perfect preparation next year, but that is a proverbial mile from 3'25.9

trying :

in oder to run, you need these theoretical under/over distance parameters ( doesn't mean you have to be able to run them but you coud follow the required 3k pace for say 2+km before tailing off or 5k for 4k before fading )

3'25.9

off

1'45.00 ->7'11.7 , 12'24.0

1'44.00 ->7'15.9 , 12'36.0

1'43.50 ->7'18.0 , 12'42.0

1'43.25 ->7'19.0 , 12'44.9

1'43.00 ->7'20.0 , 12'47.9

1'42.75 ->7'21.1 , 12'50.9

1'42.00 ->7'22.1 , 12'53.9

& for rudy

1'41.00 ->7'28.3 , 13'11.9

if rudy coud run close to 13'10 currently he coud do it !!

joking apart, you need to be looking at a 1500 guy with 1'43-flat speed & that leaves asbel as best of current bunch

i do think in his 1'43 form he couda gone 7'30 ( he ran 7'42 as a junior iirc ),so

1'43.0 / 7'30.0 ->3'28.3

i do think asbel has been capable of this in past 2y but just not got right race

I think Kiprop can do it. Usain Bolt also has potential with his speed but I'm not sure he's willing to move up to that distance.

Rudy Rudy Rudy wrote:

David Rudisha, if he wanted to switch his strength from his current 400/800 balance more toward the 800/1500 side.

Not going to happen, he's a 400/800m type anyway training cannot change that enough to beat El G's time

Can't think of anyone around at moment who can challenge it

he's still 21y ( 22y tomorrow )

he still has some maturation to go & if he's buried the 800 to <1'40 by 25y, he may shift to 1500 but still probably keep maybe mid-1'41 speed on tap

that will get him close with the years of banked endurance - greg konchellah was "only" a 1'42.7 guy & in 1 serious season of 1500 he got down to 3'31 & it's obvious he still hugely favored the 800 at the time

More obvious answer: Lukas Verzbicas, spring 2011.

Can't disagree one bit. However, over the decades I've seen lots of HS runners who should have been under 4 but some how just never did. So the too obvious answer is that we'll all just have to wait and see.

Elias Geydon

lane 8 wrote:

More obvious answer: Lukas Verzbicas, spring 2011.

Can't disagree one bit. However, over the decades I've seen lots of HS runners who should have been under 4 but some how just never did. So the too obvious answer is that we'll all just have to wait and see.

Andy Powell, Don Sage, . . . I know, I know, but LV is definitely this year's official Next American High Schooler Under Four.

Chairman Wow wrote:

lane 8 wrote:

Can't disagree one bit. However, over the decades I've seen lots of HS runners who should have been under 4 but some how just never did. So the too obvious answer is that we'll all just have to wait and see.

Andy Powell, Don Sage, . . . I know, I know, but LV is definitely this year's official Next American High Schooler Under Four.

spring 2011?? verzbikas under 4 in the mile, yes as he will likely be in college according to him with better training partners and competing against better runners, but he does not have the leg speed to run under the mile record, i could see him running 2:04-2:06 in the marathon in 5-10 years.

a great running career, definetely, not a world record at 1500 and/or mile.

Jeremy Wariner

I want it to be Wheating, but I think it will be an African that I haven't heard of yet.