So now the USA does not have one sub-2:10 Marathoner!

ryan hall 2:08.41

meb 2:09.26

both les than 6 months ago, so they have done it.

rupp, lagat, dan huling, chris derrick and more are CAPABLE of doing it in 1-3 years if they choose.

ritz 2:10.00 in 09

using the word CAPABLE we have 10-15 guys active who are CAPABLE wether or not they do it remains to be seen.

i say by 2012 the USA will start getting 4-7 sub 2:10 marathoners a year.

laugh at the dan huling pick, but remember ken martin ran a 2:09.38 in new york though he was mainly a steepler.

steepler for whatever reason seem to become excellent in the marathon, wilson kipketer (steepler not former 800 record holder) bernard bamasai, paul kosgei all sub 2:10

Gotta Love It wrote:

Meb's career highlight was NY last year, and he will not likely break 2:10 again after that peak performance.

What, aside from complete ignorance, is your basis for this assessment?

Peak marathon performance is provided within a very short window of time - Meb has performed extremely well especially during major events, but he is quickly passing his peak time, so sub:210 will be difficult for him to achieve again. Hall is burnt and seems too distracted and Ritz is fiddling in all the wrong areas. Talented enough, OK yes, but missing something and so in my opinion I would not bet on any of these 3 guys to go sub-2:10 again.

So which guys are next for sub-2:10? No one I would bet on during 2011? Gotcher might be a long shot, but no one else seems close. 2012 may produce one or more, depending on who choses to pursue marathoning in an OG year. Again, I cannot think of anyone...?

If you still disagree, then I challenge you to please name some names, with some sort of basis behind your arguments?

P.S. Don't be naive enough to name Rupp! Good luck to all of you...

After a brief assessmnet of this post, only racetraining was able to craft an intelligent response. The other 23 posts were just critical and mostly ignorant. What I also noticed was not one reponse could name an upcomer to replace the talented Meb, Hall and Ritz, as the USA's new sub-2:10 guy

Oh yeh, this is why I believe Hall will never again go sub-2:10. From his blog, enjoy:

One of the reasons why I recently decided to take the next step in my career to essential have advisors, how I feel in my training, and prayer shape my program on a daily basis is because I am compelled to live a life that requires more faith on a day to day basis. I fully realize that not everyone is suppose to journey down this path (I fully support Sara who needs the guidance of her coach) but it is the road that I want to travel. I long to have the same faith of others who have put themselves in a position that makes faith an absolute daily necessity. I don’t believe you have to be physically starving to have great faith but I would suggest that the hungry are more often than not a little more desperate for God than those who are not.

Running has always been deeply spiritual for me. My desire is to have my training be more biblically designed, which has some very tangible applications and some not so tangible applications. Some of the more tangible applications come from verses like: Proverbs 24:6, “For by wise guidance you will wage war, And in abundance of counselors there is victory” and Exodus 34:21, “You shall work six days, but on the seventh day you shall rest; even during plowing time and harvest you shall rest.” Obviously, there are no training plans in the Bible, so designing a program is a combination of my knowledge of training that I have developed over the past 14 years of competitive running, advice from others, but mainly through getting on my knees every morning and asking God what I should do. In the past I have found it very difficult for me to make deviations from my training plan once I have one written, so now I don’t have a plan in ink, making it easier for me to hear and obey God. With that said, God has a plan and sometimes He shows me one day, sometimes, a week, and sometimes the type of running I need to be doing in my current season.

I’ll be the first to admit that just because I ask God to show me how far and how intense to run everyday that my training will be perfect. Hearing from God is not always easy. But I know, that I know, that I know, that as I seek the presence of God He wants to speak to me. I believe He has been speaking to me about my running ever since He gave me the vision to go on my first run back in 1997 when I was 14 years old, the only difference now is that I am a lot more desperate to hear Him and open to letting Him direct my workouts.

Even though I know things may get messy at times and I may not always hear God perfectly I trust that God will scream if He has too, which gives me the confidence to approach everyday of training knowing that I am doing what God is telling me to do and trusting that He knows what is best for me.

How many from the U.S.?

I can only think of Rodgers, Beardsley(?), Durden, Kempainen (?) and that's it. And with the exception of Kempainen all running at least 25 years ago.

Those 4 guys all raced a lot though, no?

Sponge wrote:

How many from the U.S.?

I can only think of Rodgers, Beardsley(?), Durden, Kempainen (?) and that's it. And with the exception of Kempainen all running at least 25 years ago.

Those 4 guys all raced a lot though, no?

also

khanouchi 2:05:38

salazar 2:08:13

abdi 2:08:56

meyer 2:09:01

tabb 2:09:32

lawson 2:09:35

martin 2:09:38

Gotta Love It wrote:

You seem to be missing my point - granted the USA had a couple of sub-2:10 guys back in the spring, but turning the clock forward to today, and after NY (at the present time)it seems that the US no longer has a sub-2:10 marathoner. One would think that a country of 300M people would consistently produce sub-2:10 athletes.

The guys mentioned in my OP (Meb and Hall) were sub-2:10 calibre earlier this year (Ritz has never been) but not anymore for the reasons stated. And, it looks like there is no one of real talent up and coming to replace them. Meaning no one with the talent to race fast marathons on the flat courses or to compete for podium finishes in major marathon events.

It's brutal, but ya gotta love it!

So some people run under 2:10 in the spring and then summer goes by and fall is around and you're saying in that short time we no longer have a sub 2:10 runner?

You must not understand marathons very well.

douglas burke wrote:

Sponge wrote:

How many from the U.S.?

I can only think of Rodgers, Beardsley(?), Durden, Kempainen (?) and that's it. And with the exception of Kempainen all running at least 25 years ago.

Those 4 guys all raced a lot though, no?

also

khanouchi 2:05:38

salazar 2:08:13

abdi 2:08:56

meyer 2:09:01

tabb 2:09:32

lawson 2:09:35

martin 2:09:38

I think he is listing the ones who did NOT break 28. Salazar, abdi, meyer all did... Lawson not likely, Martin and Tabb?

douglas burke wrote:

Sponge wrote:

How many from the U.S.?

I can only think of Rodgers, Beardsley(?), Durden, Kempainen (?) and that's it. And with the exception of Kempainen all running at least 25 years ago.

Those 4 guys all raced a lot though, no?

also

khanouchi 2:05:38

hall 2:06:17

mbarek hussein 2:08:10 (he already had USA citizenship when he ran that in korea)

salazar 2:08:13

beardsley 2:08:53

abdi 2:08:56

meyer 2:09:01

meb 2:09:15

rodgers 2:09:27

tabb 2:09:32

morris 2:09:32

lawson 2:09:35

martin 2:09:38

culpeper 2:09:41

durden 2:09:57

ritz 2:10:00 not sub 2:10 but the time when he crossed the finish was 2:09:59 and it was rounded up a second.

count me as the naive who thinks rupp goes sub 2:10 he will run 2:05-2:06 when he starts running marathons.

solinsky, lagat, teg, jager, fernandez, chris derrick will all go sub 2:10 and much faster.

Was just responding to this below. But you are right, Tabb and Martin for sure.

"It really is a numbers game. What I see right now is that we are starting to see a "critical" mass of 1500m runners that can make a major championship final.

5000m we may see three in the next world champs that can go sub 13. 10000m is also heading in the right direction.

As these "slots" fill up with better and better runners the 28 min 10000m runners should be turning to the marathon sooner and sooner. If enough 28 min guys train properly we should see some new sub 2:10 guys emerge. That is where the numbers come in. There are guys that never broke 28 mins on the track that have gone on to run sub 2:10 marathons.

On a side note:

Things I think are wrong with American marathoning

1) Lack of racing and racing experience.

2) Too many 20 mile time trials. If you see a runner post about a 20 mile time trial you can pretty much cross them off your list of favorites for race day."

I don't disagree with your future picks for sub-2:10, but again, who in the near future (2011 and 2012). And despite the Boston sub-2:10 guys in April, as of now after NY fall marathion we will not see a US sub-2:10 marathon until at least 2013. Sorry if you don't like it, but that seems to be reality.

Gotta love it when a bunch of f***ing nobodies who would be hard pressed to run a 3 hour marathon think they are in a position to criticize 2:10-2:15 marathoners for not being fast enough.

For the love of God, shut the f*** up already.

Besides, while I know that on the internet it's better to proclaim that we're living in the End Times, it's not like this was a bad year for US distance running:

12:55.53 Chris Solinsky

12:54.12 Bernard Lagat

and

26:59.60 Chris Solinsky (#2 time in the world)

27:10.74 Galen Rupp (#5 time in the world)

and

3:30.90 Andrew Wheating (#5 time in the world)

and

7:29.00 Bernard Lagat (#4 time in the world)

and

3:50.64 Leonel Manzano (#8 time in the world)

It's extremely hard to negative split a race, to running 5:00's to running 4:30's is a hard switch. They went through half in 1:05:20 meaning they would of had to run a negative split by more than 40 seconds to go sub 2:10. Ritz, Meb and Hall are all capable of 2:05 if they have the perfect race. Houston 2012 could be very very fast. Also Ryan is shooting for another fast marathon in the spring going to London.

Isn't KK in sub 2:10 shape?

he doesn't look American either

Our best 1 year was a girl - beat that!

what you said wrote:

he doesn't look American either

Okay, numbnuts, what DOES an American look like then?