If Lagat can run 12:53 right now past his prime, how fast could he have been?

Oh yeah i remember that, but haven't seen it recently either. I use to search for a lot of stuff.

Username Etuyo on youtube who has was just suspended and he had a ton of recent running videos.

It's RakAnishu, jeez.

Anyone else understand this comment? :)

Oh I think RakAnishu is our new god

runner77 wrote:

I don't understand the point of these conversations about who's on drugs because we will never know or who and that goes for all sports so either we consider everyone guilty or everyone clean because we will never know who has taken EPO or PEDs and who has not and it's really annoying to make allegations against people who have not tested positively.

be well :)

But then he did test positive in 2003 and had to withdraw from the World Champs. Of course the B sample came back negative due to some "technical mis-handling" of samples, but there aint smoke without fire!

They were all using EPO in the late 90's early 00's. First there was no test, then the test was unreliable and threw up mistakes, and most athletes were too clever to get caught taking the at the wrong time. It's only in recent years that it seems the testing has improved. But there will be another wave of ridiculously fast performances when the next drug comes along.

wellnow wrote:

12.40 without drugs.

Some people can't see past their jealousy, so every fast runner in their twisted minds is a druggie.

So you're saying that he was worth 18 seconds (or about 120m) better than say Aouita; possibly the greatest 5000m runner ever; just over 10 years after he was at a peak!? I don't think so.

Either the tracks got a lot faster in that interim period or the widescale use of PED's caused those times to drop so markedly. Training didn't evolve that much in 10 years so why did the WR drop by 20 secs in 11 years? EPO

It took Aouita 5 years to bring the record down 2 secs, and he was head and shoulders above his peers, then it improves 20 secs and dozens of men are running sub 13 without even breaking into a sweat.

aouita had no competition in the 5k. who else was even running sub 13:05 other than sydnee maree in aouita's first 5k wr. he probably could have run sub 12:50 if he competition the likes of geb, komen, tergat, bekele, etc.

new juice wrote:

wellnow wrote:

12.40 without drugs.

Some people can't see past their jealousy, so every fast runner in their twisted minds is a druggie.

So you're saying that he was worth 18 seconds (or about 120m) better than say Aouita; possibly the greatest 5000m runner ever; just over 10 years after he was at a peak!? I don't think so.

Either the tracks got a lot faster in that interim period or the widescale use of PED's caused those times to drop so markedly. Training didn't evolve that much in 10 years so why did the WR drop by 20 secs in 11 years? EPO

It took Aouita 5 years to bring the record down 2 secs, and he was head and shoulders above his peers, then it improves 20 secs and dozens of men are running sub 13 without even breaking into a sweat.

I feel like he would have been in the same boat as he has been with the 1500m: one of the best ever, perhaps even on par with Geb, but in the shadow of the greatest (in this case, Bekele).

And I'm not sure he would have been much better at it than he is now. His raw speed has deteriorated a bit since his 3:26 days, while I would imagine his strength is greater now. I think he could have been a monster closer in a slow tactical race, but would he have had the strength for a fast race or a WR attempt? Again, my guess is that he would have been a 12:45 guy, but living in Bekele's shadow much like Shihine.

Who says he is done with 12.53? To me it seems like he is hinting for more?

new juice wrote:

So you're saying that he was worth 18 seconds (or about 120m) better than say Aouita; possibly the greatest 5000m runner ever; just over 10 years after he was at a peak!? I don't think so.

Either the tracks got a lot faster in that interim period or the widescale use of PED's caused those times to drop so markedly. Training didn't evolve that much in 10 years so why did the WR drop by 20 secs in 11 years? EPO

It took Aouita 5 years to bring the record down 2 secs, and he was head and shoulders above his peers, then it improves 20 secs and dozens of men are running sub 13 without even breaking into a sweat.

Without denying the existence of PEDs, a review of the 5,000m WR progression is needed since the drop mirrors other drops.

he ran 12:54.12.

It sure looks like Bekele smiles like he already knows he's going to win with 200 to go, it's at about 26:34 on the clock. And since he did win by 30 meters I guess he did know.

runner77 wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=828BG3poro0

Ess Gee Ess wrote:

Without denying the existence of PEDs, a review of the 5,000m WR progression is needed since the drop mirrors other drops.

No it doesn't. The rate of progression should get less percentage wise with time. Of course it depends which years you look at, but if we start in 1960, when the Africans started to compete more on a world stage and everyone had recovered economically from the 2 World wars, you'll see a very strange pattern of improvement: -

1960 - 13:35.0

1970 - 13:16.6 ( big drop - not sure if Clarke's last 5000m Wr was on cinders or

synthetic?)

1980 - 13:08.4

1990 - 12:58.4

2000 - 12:39.4

So, in the first 10 years it dropped by 18.4sec, then 8.2, then 10.0 (as money came into the sport) and then by the biggest drop of all - 19.0 secs!?

That is completely against any sort of natural progression rate. The rate of improvement, which one would expect to slow down over time, actually speeded up markedly in that decade. Since 2000 it's progressed by just 2secs. And since 2003, apart from Bekele, there have been only 2 performances within 10 secs of what the world record was at the end of the 1990's.

He's just now concentrating on the 5k. Most milers tend to stick mainly to the mile in outdoor season, he did that and won olympic medals and was one of the fastest in the history of the event.

He's never concentrated on the 5k before, professionally at least. He feels like he's a bit past his prime for the mile, as most people would agree. He also feels that he would be much better suited as a 5k runner right now, with a strong abilities in closing speed. Which is why he is concentrating on training for a longer distance race right now, the 5k.

If bekele ever cedes his position at the top in the 5k/10k, don't think that he wouldn't rock the marathon with some pretty fast times, regardless of whether or not he should have done the event in his prime.

Actually there have been 3 -

Kipchoge 12:46.53 04

Sihine 12:47.04 04

Songok 12:48.66 06

Win.

hook wrote:

maybe he isn't past his prime

you are clearly capable of any proper analysis

the 5k wr & 1500wr have followed themselves quite nicely in the last 40y if you'd bothered to do any sorta sophisticated analysis

there have been years that one or other has lagged, but they catch up

most things in the universe have a logarithmic relationship & a quick cursory go on a calculator demonstrates this

after a coupla minutes with a calculator, a prelim relationship is :

5000wr = 1500wr^1.245

at any given time ( note - this is for wrs & not athletes ability between different events - consider 1500 & 5k runners as distinct populations for these purposes )

starting in synthetic track era of post-'70

bayi 3'32 ->13'08

wr at time was emiel's 13'13, but ben & brendan ran 13'14 that year in a real race not wabbited tt & both couda gone sub-13'10 on the circuit

5k wr at time was 13'06 by henry ( past his peak thru alcoholism ), needed a little catch up to 1500

then coe/ovett era, when wr was 3'31.36 in '82 ->13'04.7

moorcroft runs 13'00.4 ->3'30.45

it's surpassed the 1500wr at the time which was ovett's 3'31.36

ovetts' subsequent 3'30.77 the following year was fractionally shy still

then 1500wr down to 3'29.45 in '85 by aouita ->12'55.8

5k wr now weak & shoud be at this level to catch up

few years later morceli run 3'28.8 when 5kwr is "only" 12'58.7, morceli's time implies 5kwr shoud be 12'52.8 - moses runs 12'55.4, bringing 5kwr up a bit

then events of '95

morceli slashes 1500 to 3'27.3 ->12'45.9

hugely better than the 5kwr

however, 1/12 later, geb run 12'44.39, making the 5kwr =/better than the 1500wr

then geb/komen bring 5k down to 12'39.3 ->3'25.9

the 1500wr is now significantly weaker than the 5k

however, hicham rectifies it 1/12 later with 3'26.0

the 1500wr hasn't shifted since

the 5kwr is now 12'37.3 ->3'25.5

the 1500wr is now about 1/2s weaker than current 5k wr

the above shows that the 2 records have kept closely in tandem in past 40y

since he is not aerobically challenged as was ELG, he could have gone 12.35-12.40. Closer to 12.40 i believe.

ventolin^3 wrote:

you are clearly capable of any proper analysis

the 5k wr & 1500wr have followed themselves quite nicely in the last 40y if you'd bothered to do any sorta sophisticated analysis

First of all, I never said that there wasn't a correlation between the progression of 1500 and 5000m.

Thanks for the analysis you gave; very interesting.

However, if you look at the evolution of the 1500m WR over the same 10 year periods, then you'll notice that just as with the 5000m, the biggest drop (not even talking % improvement) occurs between 1990 and 2000.

1950 - 3:43.0

1960 - 3:35.6 (7.4 sec drop)

1970 - 3:33.1 (2.5 sec drop)

1980 - 3:31.4 (1.7 sec drop)

1990 - 3:29.5 (1.9 sec drop)

2000 - 3:26.0 (3.5 sec drop)

2010 - 3:26.0 (0 sec drop)

As you pointed out, a similar pattern to the 5000m, with the smallest improvement occurring between 1970 & 80, and the biggest (ignoring the 1950-60 drop, which I didn't include in the 5000m analysis) between 1990 and 2000. Even bigger than the drop between 1960 & 70!

Regardless of the relationship between the 1500 and 5000; which actually reinforces my point; do you not think that the rate of improvement should be getting slower over time?

In both the 1500 and 5000 there is an overall trend towards the progression graph becoming less steep over time, until the 1990's. Regardless of the reasons, there is little doubt the 1990's was a complete aberration from what would have been expected based on previous historical data at that point.

In the 800m the progression is far more gradual and follows expected patterns.