IT'S ON: Bernard Lagat or Chris Solinksy next 5000m AR at Bislett

the stanford 10k indicated that Solinsky is in far better shape than he was 3 years ago, when he ran his 13:12. compare his PRs from 1500 to 10k to guys who have broken 13:00. nobody should be surprised if he breaks 13. everybody should be surprised he hasn't already

Where is teg so far this year?

I think if Solinsky makes another move with 600 or 800 to go he may be able to get away from Lagat. If he doesn't make a move until 300 to go, Lagat beats Solinsky.

I think Solinsky is capable of 12:54. That's not as crazy as what he's already done this year.

As always, depends on weather and other competitors. But these meets are almost always fast.

I'm not up on my international running knowledge enough to try to predict the race winner.

Only four days to go..can't wait and I hope the weather and pacing is favorable. Bernard and Chris could very well break the current American Record! In fact I hope the pacer(s) takes it out past 3000m closer to 12:50 pace than 12:55.

VIPAM wrote:

Only four days to go..can't wait and I hope the weather and pacing is favorable. Bernard and Chris could very well break the current American Record! In fact I hope the pacer(s) takes it out past 3000m closer to 12:50 pace than 12:55.

Eliud Kipchoge & Vincent Chepkok ran 12:51 in Doha; the 3000 split was 7:41. They are both running in Oslo; the plans of the meeting are to have a similar split for 3000 on Friday. There will be 6-8 guys minimum going through in under 7:45. It will be set up nicely for Lagat and Solinsky.....

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CaptainKilla wrote:

An AR record being set is about as likely as Marissa Miller blowing me while Bar Rafaeli tongues my asshole, and Keira Knightley sits on my face.

And what you so certain I'm letting them leave my house on June 4?????

Do you guys think Solinsky is in that good of shape to throw down a 12:55 with 3 months of racing to go? I say he runs 13 flat and goes for it at Pre Classic.

Brothersport wrote:

Do you guys think Solinsky is in that good of shape to throw down a 12:55 with 3 months of racing to go? I say he runs 13 flat and goes for it at Pre Classic.

Why not? He was in good enough shape to throw down a 26:59 closing in 1:56.

I don't know why everyone is so impressed with the 1:56. Its very good but its not going to beat a lot of world elites in the 5K. I mean if you are just talking about speed. I was more impressed as to how comfortable he looked running 27:10 pace and then having gas in the tank to run 1:56. Running just above 62 second laps in the 5K if he is paced well seems very doable for CS right now.

I just don't see any evidence yet that he can do much better in a tactical 5K than he did in the WCs last year.

I love how everyone is on the CS bandwagon now. He had an amazing race. How often do you see someone break ARs back to back? This is exactly what happened with Hall, Ritz, Webb, the list goes on. You can't expect magic every race.

Last year, Ritz ran 27:22, then 12:56. The same strategy seems to be at play here, which shouldn't be a surprise. 26:59 projects to a lot faster than 12:56--on the order of 12:51-52, which is why I said 12:51 on the other thread.

Let's hope CS uses his peak well.

Solinsky isn't traveling to Oslo for shits & giggles.

He's never thought small, going all the way back to the beginning of high school, which is one of his biggest strengths and can get in his way at times.

It's hard to imagine him being happy with anything over 13, over 13:05 will be bad and not PRing or a DNF will be a disaster. That's a guess at his thoughts, who knows what he'll actually run.

Ryan

You are definitely wrong. Several years ago there were 2-3 Ethiopians and maybe 2 Kenyans who could routinely close a FAST 10000m in 55-56. Over the last few years only Kenenisa has ROUTINELY closed a FAST 10000m with a sub 55 seconds last lap.

Now your talking about a last 800m in 1:56 I GUARANTEE you that (besides Kenenisa and Chris S) you'll be hard pressed to find more than two others have closed the last 800m in a sub 27 minute 10000m fasters than Chris Solinsky!

See how many runners have in the last 2 years closed such a fast recent 10000m as quick as Solinsky. Don't bother going back past the last Olympics because that data before then isn't a RECENT reflection of 10000m runners!

It would not be a disaster if he tries to hang with guys like Kipchoge and Shaheen and he can't quite hang in there, or if he "goes for it" (sub 12:55) and ends up DNF. Try going out a little slower next time if that happens.

But I expect him to go with the lead pack and go for it--and not make excuses if he fails.

I know you wasn't refering to me but 12:50 has everything to do with it as thats the mark Bernard Lagat said he would like to run before 2012. I don't see why he couldn't do it this year in the right conditions and pacing.

To the poster who said, "don't know why everyone is crazy over Chris Solinsky last 1:56 800m." BECAUSE there is very few who have shown such ability even in the last World Championships and Olympics!

2008 Olympic 10000m

last 200m, 400m, 800m

1. Kenenisa Bekele....27:01.17 (26.2, 53.4, 1:54.4)**

2. Sileshi Sihine.....27:02.77 (27.4, 54.8, 1:55.8)**

3. Micah Kogo.........27:04.11 (28.2, 55.8, 1:57.5)

2009 World Championshis 10000m

1. Kenenisa Bekele....26:42.31 (last 1000m 2:28.58)**

2. Zerseney Tadese....26:50.12 (last 1000m 2:36.39)

3. Moses Masai........26:57.39 (last 1000m 2:43.65)

only Kenenisa was able to cover the last 1000m or 800m in pace of 1:56 (800m) or faster

**Faster than Chris Solinsky last 800m of 1:56. So that's why everyone is so crazy over Chris Solinsky 1:56 last 800m!!!!

Are you comparing two probably tacticle championship races with a perfectly rabbited race at stanford. Let any of the top 10k runners in the world sit on 27:10 pace or whatever it was and kick off of it. I think a lot of them could run their last 800 like that.

sol's flattened out time from physics was ~ 26'46

therefore, any 10k runner of ~ 26'46 ( perfect run ) calibre can be expected to finish a 26'59 in 1'56

at present, i'd say there are 1/2 dozen africans capable of 26'46 - kennster, shinester, z-man, big choge, kogo + 1 or 2 unknown kenyans you can pull out of a hat

look at 26'46 calibre guys to compare him to...

Lagat 12:56.9

Solinsky 13:02 - 10 second PR

bring this back up in a few days

ehhh and Vent3

probably as the poster before Vent said...at present, I'd say by ventolin. In the last two MAJOR championship one alittle faster than Chris Solinsky (less about 1/2 second a lap) and one that went out slower than Solinsky. Yet only two athletes was able to close as fast as Solinsky. Big choge, Kogo, Zersenay had their chances in the same races as Kenenisa and Sileshi-when they accomplished the feat) but besides Kenenisa and Sileshi the OTHERS DIDN'T DO IT!

Stop all the guessing and assuming about who could (only two in the last 2 years actually have)- the guy closed like very few could in any sub 27 minute 10000m!