Red Glare wrote:
Your assessment is delusional, sirrah. Time to acquaint yourself with the facts:
http://www.usatf.org/statistics/all-time/Marathon/men.asp
You're the one whose delusional. The reason why you have so many Boston PRS is that 30 years ago Boston was the biggest, and most important race you could run. It was THE race in the US. Also, 1983 was blessed with a strong tailwind which skews the PRs by a lot.
What follows is an analysis of the New York Marathon elites fields from 1999 to 2005. Specifically, I was interested in the performances of those marathoners who competed in NYC and one or more of the remaining four "Majors" in an attempt to establish an empirical performance bias across venues. Not surprising, the results confirmed what was already known anecdotally: there are fast courses (Berlin, London. Chicago) and there are slow courses (Boston, New York).
The career results of 87 elites who competed at NYC marathon (99-05) were meticulously recorded and analyzed, paying attention to their performances at the 5 Major Marathons: New York, Boston, London, Berlin, Chicago.
OVERVIEW
Of the 87 elite marathoners who ran New York, 27 ran London, 28 Chicago, 19 Berlin, and 31 Boston
2:09:56 Average PR for 87 runners
2:14:22 Average best time at NYC (87)
2:10:35 Average best at London (27)
2:11:55 Average best at Chicago (28)
2:10:33 Average best at Berlin (19)
2:12:24 Average best at Boston (30)
4:27 New York avg from PR
0:39 London avg from PR
1:59 Chicago avg from PR
0:38 Berlin avg from PR
2:28 Boston avg from PR
3:48 London overall avg bias over New York (3:01 headsup)
2:28 Chicago overall avg bias over New York (1:22 headsup)
3:49 Berlin overall avg bias over New York (6:58 headsup)
1:59 Boston overall avg bias over New York (0:29 headsup)
VENUE TO VENUE COMPARISON
For those runners who've run at each event
New York vs London 27 runners
2:08:40 average PR
2:10:35 (1:55) avg. London best
2:13:36 (4:56) avg. New York best
-------
3:01 time bias to London over New York
New York vs Chicago 28 runners
2:09:40 average PR
2:11:55 (2:15) avg. Chicago best
2:13:17 (3:37) avg. New York best
-------
1:22 time bias to Chicago over New York
New York vs Berlin 19 runners
2:09:32 average PR
2:10:33 (1:01) average Berlin best
2:16:30 (6:58) average New York best
-------
5:57 time bias to Berlin over New York
New York vs Boston 30 runners
2:09:39 average PR
2:12:24 (2:44) average Boston best
2:12:53 (3:14) average New York best
-------
0:29 time bias to Boston over New York
Just for kicks, I've thrown out from the data set all of the time differentials over 7:00 on the theory that large time differences would be heavily weighted towards circumstances and not the course differences. The results were as follows:
New York vs London 22 runners
2:08:30 average PR
2:10:24 (1:54) avg. London best
2:12:20 (3:50) avg. New York best
-------
1:56 time bias to London over New York
New York vs Chicago 25 runners
2:09:49 average PR
2:11:49 (2:00) avg. Chicago best
2:12:53 (3:04) avg. New York best
-------
1:04 time bias to Chicago over New York
New York vs Berlin 12 runners
2:09:38 average PR
2:10:41 (1:03) average Berlin best
2:13:34 (3:56) average New York best
-------
2:53 time bias to Berlin over New York
New York vs Boston 27 runners
2:10:05 average PR
2:12:11 (2:06) average Boston best
2:13:24 (3:19) average New York best
-------
1:13 time bias to Boston over New York