Tadesse will destroy Geb's Marathon WR

So I take it you agree with me that most, if not all, of the best marathon times were not run within a couple months of that runner's HM PB?

Yes, I agree with you. At the same time, there is some precedent for fast (sub-60) halfs a month out from major marathons. Lisbon is always a month out from London, always fast, and often gets top London marathoners during their buildup.

Also see Tergat's sub-60 at Lisbon in March 2002, with only three weeks till London (which was earlier than usual that year). Khannouchi ran the WR, but Tergat still went sub-2:06.

Really, though, we've just entered a new age for the marathon. Who can predict what will happen?

And if I'm not mistaken, Tadese is only the second-ever man to attempt the marathon with a "fresh" sub-27 clocking for 10,000m on the track (cf Geb's runs in Hengelo in 2007 and 2008). There's little data available to predict what such an athlete might do.

Agreed. I would love nothing more than for Tadesse to have run his WR off of marathon training. An epic battle between him and Wanjiru would definitely make it worth staying up until 3-4am like last year! But I feel it's my duty to combat the idiocy that dsrunner likes to spread around here. Thanks for putting together those stats, very interesting.

bobby e. wrote:

Fall '07 Gebrselassie 59:24 2:04:26 ~8 weeks

2:05:31.

We've already taken care of the associated logistics.

well. wrote:

Ultra Man wrote:

given his strength and capacity he could easily pass through half in 61: high and feel comfortable,

That´s the same argument that people who want to see Wariner in the 800 use: "he will pass 400 in 50 and feel comfortable". It´s not that easy.

Actually it's not the same argument at all...there's a huge difference between a sprinting event and a mid distance event, compared to two long distance events. 400 runners are often much more muscular, and built/trained for long sprinting and not endurance/aerobic events which the 800 starts to tab into. Many can't step up to the 800 well at all. But a world class half marathon is built almost exactly like a marathoner, and hardly anyone would argue that a successful half guy couldnt' be a succesful marathoner (although it might take a few tries), where as many 400 guys just won't ever be a good 800 runner without drastically changing their training.

a little special sauce, and this will not be a problem.

We were discussing whether or not half marathon capability bodes well for a marathon. Generally speaking the answer is yes, of course it does. God, when was the last time we had a WR in the marathon set by someone who wasn't at or near the top of the half marathon list?

And how many top Kenyans need to injure themselves piling up extra miles before London before we acknowledge some limitations to the 'marathon specific' training dogma? The truth is these days if you are great at one, you are almost certainly great at the other.

Thank you, very interesting.

Glad you think you know everything and no one posting here else knows shit but you. Probably because you are arrogant, which shines through in your post. Personally do not see anyone on here being far fetched or unrealistic. Tadesse just ran 4:28 pace for the half and as we all know is the real deal - the only athlete in the past few years to legitimately test Bekele. Tadesse is primed like he has never been for London. He learned plenty from his first attempt and without question is fit and with great coaching.

I predict the pace is fast as always in London, Tadesse stays relaxed and patient and feeds off of Wanjuri until inside 6K to go when he crushes whoever might be near him. Mark my words, 2:03:59 will go!

If I am right, will you own up to the LetsRun audience that you are an arrogant prick?

I really don't mean to do the typical "hating on the star" Letsrun thing, but there is just one thing where I must be missing something concerning Wanjiru.

There was a lot of celebration about his CR last year in London and Chicago, but what I thought was that both were a few second CR. That's great, but from someone who was talking about sub 2h marathon in his near future.... I know that there is the "but it was a competitive race" argument, but so were the two last years of Rotterdam, where a good number of guys beat both Wanjiru's London and Chicago times without the sub-2 speculation. Particularly Chicago was set up more as a lets get a fast time race, and for hundreds of thousands of dollars 5 sec CR that is over a min slower than WR felt like a bit of a let down.

I wish the best for the sport and for Wanjiru and I must be missing something, but..

dsrunner has the day off wrote:

The truth is these days if you are great at one, you are almost certainly great at the other.

Agreed - and that's why we'll never see the HM in the Olympics.

While we're at it, the overlap of 5000 and 10000 is quite big, too. Geb, Bekele, etc.

Tadesse - DNF is my London prediction for him. I dont think he can hold the peak for that long. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

Don't mean to be a douche but when is London again?

While i think he's very capable of breaking the world record...history tells us he'll fail.

Tergat, Geb, Wanjiru....the first two took several tries to get it down. None set a wr in their first attempt. The half body is meant for the marathon, but it still often takes a few under your belt to know how and where to push the body that hard.

That said, it's still possible, but i'd bet against a WR baesd off history.

bad at timing wrote:

Don't mean to be a douche but when is London again?

Don't mean to be a douche but let me google that for you:

It was really friggin cold in Chicago last year. 31' at the start and maybe 36-38 ish when he finished. Up that 10' and you're probably in 2:04 land.

Half marathon is not same as full marathon, you should also know the he dropped out in london last year and what makes you think he will break the record this year...it won't happen.

dsrunner has the day off wrote:

Seriously is there anyone < 2:05 who hasn't run near 59' for a half? Start with Tergat and work your way to the present.

Sammy Korir and Duncan Kibet.