Purdy pictures 1500m to marathon (1960-2009)

You should make one for 1500 meter performances by US woman. That curve will really open some eyes.

Who said anything about "post epo" era? There is now a test, which is a very poor one, and tons of people get around the test - sorry - try again my naive friend.Just went to a website about beating the tests with microdosing, whole blood spinning and flash freezing, microdosing with IV, protease powders, volume expanders, etc.If you stop a week out and your last several doses are no more than 2000IUs and done IV then you won't be failing any epo controls.Are there any 'crit tests in track? How many would fail if the Cheers,Boom Boom Pow!

^Are there any 'crit tests in track? How many would fail if track had the same tests as cycling?

Rush OBeckity wrote:

I agree with much of what you wrote. But let's be clear: it is hard to disentangle the effect of different variables on the drop of times. The fact that the "EPO ear" also coincided with a huge influx of top east african talent confuses matters. If EPO has such a huge influence on top running times, why didn't the best non-african times of this era have a similar drop?

Sir Changes-his-handles-alot, nowhere did I state that EPO was a huge influence, nor that they (kenyans) are the only ones using -- it is an influence nonetheless. I believe the opposite: that the percentage of Kenyan runners using EPO is much smaller than other populations.

The introduction if EPO has certainly deeply permeated track and field events, from sprinters all the way up to distance runners. It was undetectable for many years, and once tests were developed, the unlucky or sloppy ones were caught, and african runners were included in the net, and are still being caught today. Consider those busts the smoke, and where there's smoke there's fire.

Does that conflate to "all runners are on EPO". Absolutely not. Certainly early on the costs of EPO were prohibitive to most. But like every other drug made, generic versions quickly fill demand in secondary and tertiary dark markets.

Testing, especially in a pool of athletes that are rarely tested (as in third world marathoners), would have little effect on the usage, and would do little to stem the drop in times. How does one test an athlete that isn't even on the radar screen in the first place?

I'm speculating that the drop in marathon times IS already slowing due to the 'testing roadblocks', it's just that the opportunity, monetary and phenotype factors are now overwhelming the uptick. Non-kenyans are dropping times as well. Is that due to EPO or is that due to opportunity? I'd lean heavily toward opportunity.

You cannot ignore the effect of EPO in our sport, but only a fool would believe that every fast time, or dramatic breakthrough by an individual is drug related. Improvements happen, and when they do happen they are often dramatic.

Another note. You keep saying the improvements are an "east African" thing. Not really. There are a smattering of Ethiopians, Ugandan and Tanzanians in the mix. The great majority of them, by a huge margin, it is a Kalenjin thing -- only ten percent of the population, located geographically in the western highlands of Kenya.

I'm not sure why non-African runners stopped training in the late 1980s, but they did. I can remember in the late 80s/early 90s talking to runners and/or their coaches and realizing they simply were not putting in the appropriate training for their disciplines. You can still hear echos of that shitty attitude with the "singles or doubles debate" on this message board.

"The advantages of small are exaggerated in the most aerobic of running events."

I think a better choice of wording would have been 'magnified'.

I'm not sure why non-African runners stopped training in the late 1980s, but they did. I can remember in the late 80s/early 90s talking to runners and/or their coaches and realizing they simply were not putting in the appropriate training for their disciplines.

Coe.

coe wrote:

Coe.

???

I guess I jumped to a conclusion.

Thanks for OBeckitying me.

This thought that lower mileage and intervals is the way to go (the Lydiard vs. Coe debate). Now, there's been a shift back to the blue-collar, 70's/80's approach, of doubles and high mileage.

It is interesting to see that no one challenged Boom Boom Pow's post.

coe wrote:

This thought that lower mileage and intervals is the way to go (the Lydiard vs. Coe debate). Now, there's been a shift back to the blue-collar, 70's/80's approach, of doubles and high mileage.

Event appropriate training. Exactly how isn't Coes' 80-100 mpw not event appropriate base mileage? Heck, 60-80mpw is plenty for a guy like Coe. How isn't Coe's 40-60 mpw not event-specific racing mileage? Nothing new here.

Since when was Ethiopa not part of E. Africa?

Are you suggesting that the change in the genetic pool was mainly due to the Kenyans (Kalenjin tribe)? Don't you think there was increased participation from the other African countries as well, including Morocco (inspired by Aouita), Algeria, and Ethiopa.

Your explanation for the lack of influence of EPO on non-African times is that they weren't training hard enough in the 90s? That seems like quite a broad-brush statement.

Precision360 wrote:

It is interesting to see that no one challenged Boom Boom Pow's post.

Add to "Boom Boom Pow's" contention that EPO isn't the only blood booster that has been used for the LAST 10 YEARS.

CERA, actovegin, Aranesp, homologous blood packing and autologous blood packing.

The blood doping process (with real blood - yours or someone else's) has been around in sports for a long time. Admitted dopers used this practice in the late 1960's ... so it goes back AT LEAST that far. It has made a big resurgence (at least in cycling) for many years. High-profile riders like Vinokourov, Kashechkin and Tyler Hamilton were busted for it in 2007 and 2004 respectively. The Operation Puerto case in 2006 (which lead to the retirement of cycling hero Jan Ulrich and the 18 month suspension for Italian hero Ivan Basso) was all about "patients" who were blood packing.

Using drugs to boost hematocrit is still as popular as ever. Very high profile riders like David Miller, Iban Mayo, Ricardo Ricco have all been busted for different drugs since 2004. These are athletes making more than $1M salaries. There are probably 50 other cycling positives (for high profile riders) in just the last 5 years ... if you care to look.

The mandatory "blood passports" for all professional riders (since 2008) is an attempt to stamp out blood doping with your own blood. the other tests that have been used for years already detect the other methods (at least for a brief time).

This from Wikipedia:

"At present there is no accepted method for detecting autologous transfusions (that is, using the athlete’s own RBCs), but research is in progress and the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) has promised that a test will eventually be introduced. The test method and its introduction date are to be kept secret in order to avoid tipping off doping athletes. The assay under development may be a measure of 2,3-bisphosphoglycerate (2,3-BPG) levels in an athlete's red blood cells. Because 2,3-BPG is degraded over time, the stored blood used in autologous transfusions will have less 2,3-BPG than fresh blood. A 2,3-BPG concentration lower than normal may therefore be an indication of autologous transfusion."

One of the reasons that the lower-level riders don't get busted as much is they don't need to take as many chances because NONE of them figures very high in any of the races with Mountains (Tour of Switzerland, Dauphine', The Three Grand Tours) where the blood doping helps so much. While it helps a climbing domestique to dope, it is not as important as it is to the Leader.

It is interesting to note this phenomena: None of Lance Armstrong's support riders ever tested positive when they rode for Armstrong's team, but MANY did after leaving the team to be a Team Leader in their own right. Roberto Heras, Tyler Hamilton, Floyd Landis were three ... there may be more.

So my point is that if this is all happening in a better-funded sport (which has much more-frequent and more-stringent testing) in 2007-2008-2009 then why would you believe that blood doping is over in track and field?

EPO may not be the 100%, slamdunk, go-to choice that it was for apparently most of 1990-2000, but many other choices have risen up or been resurrected to take some of its place.

E_Smith wrote:

Since when was Ethiopa not part of E. Africa?

Are you suggesting that the change in the genetic pool was mainly due to the Kenyans (Kalenjin tribe)? Don't you think there was increased participation from the other African countries as well, including Morocco (inspired by Aouita), Algeria, and Ethiopa.

Your explanation for the lack of influence of EPO on non-African times is that they weren't training hard enough in the 90s? That seems like quite a broad-brush statement.

Who said that Ethiopia wasn't part of East Africa? The impact of the Ethiopians and other countries (in numbers) is tiny compared to one tribe in Kenya. That point shouldn't be difficult to understand?

As far as your inference about the drought in non-African performances in the 90s (specifically European and Euro colonies) being the direct result of a lack of proper training and attitude, thats EXACTLY what I'm saying.

When you look at a country like England, with a long history of long distance successes, and realize that at one time Paula Radcliffe was the fastest marathoner in that country, man or woman, the culprit was easy to identify.

When you look at the horrible collapse of depth of American marathon performances, paired with a concurrent whiny attitude about the effort and mindset require to train for the event, again, not very hard to figure out..

When you consider that in 2009, considered by many a "year of resurgence", nine Americans broke 2:15:00 for the marathon, and all of them have websites and twitter accounts and tweet every time they pick there noses ... contrast that to the 44 American me who ran faster than 2:15:00 in 1983, who didn't run with mouths or their keyboards. They got every morning to run, and did it again every evening. Day after day. Month after month. Year after year. They all put their pants on one lag at a time, just like each one of you.

Sorry I misinterpreted what you said. I will buy your explanation for no progress for the white man in the 90s. However, world times generally have not fallen off much since the 90s. Less WRs are being set but the depth, according to your graphs, is about the same. We can't know whether the WRs were set on EPO or not, but the fact that the depth has remained relatively constant suggests that if EPO was a big factor, some other substance has replaced it in order to keep performance levels the same. Which also leads me to question, again, why non-African times haven't benefited more this decade (now that Euros are training again). the other possible interpretation would be that drugs are not a factor this decade, but the genetic pool has continued to expand this decade (even more Kenyans), allowing the depth of performance to remain constant even as the top times of the year have slowed (other than Bekele). Thanks for the graphs!

Why are the E. African athletes so mortal without European coaches - specifically Italian coaches? Why don't these same European coaches have similar success with European athletes? Obviously, European cyclists have the same "training ethic" as E. African distance runners.

Let me help you out buddy - FG-2216.Stimulate your own EPO production, no need to inject something from exogenous sources, no need for needles either.

malmo wrote:

Another note. You keep saying the improvements are an "east African" thing. Not really. There are a smattering of Ethiopians, Ugandan and Tanzanians in the mix. The great majority of them, by a huge margin, it is a Kalenjin thing -- only ten percent of the population, located geographically in the western highlands of Kenya.

I will not deny what you are saying on the issue of the majority of top distance runners in the world coming from the Kalenjin tribe, and yes, Kenya being by far being the dominant nation on the all time lists. However, I do think you definitely overstate that case at least as relates to Ethiopia. With the inclusion of ETH, the big burst of great times since the late '80's should absolutely not only be considered a "Kalenjin thing", but also be considered an East African "thing" too.

Let's look at, Ethiopia (it seems strange that I'd have to make this case that ETH has been part of this explosion of great times since the late 80's, but here goes): Do you really consider having 18 athletes who have run 13:00 or better in the 5k a "smattering" of excellence?? That smashes the entire rest of non-african world combined! (I counted only 5 or 6 non african-born athletes who have run 13:00 or under ) And ETH is even more impressive at the top this list, with 3 of the top 5 performers, beating KEN.

What about the 10k? Again, ETH has another 18 athletes who have run under 27:15, compared to only 4 for the entire rest of the non african world combined. And once again, at the top of the list, they do even better with 3 of the top 5, again beating KEN (ETH has 3 of the 26:30 or better performers).

Marathon? Not as impressive as 5k/10k but they've produced 10 sub 2:07 performers, again more than a "smattering" for sure.

And in world x-c, in the mid 2000's the ETH men either beat the KEN men, or were right on their heels for several years in the team competition. And as we all know, they've produced the two greatest distance runners, BY FAR, in the history of this planet, Bekele and Geb.

And I haven't even mentioned the women.

So, it is true that Kenya is surely the dominant country, and the Kalenjins the dominant tribe (don't bother giving me #'s, I am not questioning the overall Kenyan dominance). However, the amazing ETH success during this same time period surely makes it not a stretch in the least to call the huge jump in distance running performances that we are commenting on an "east african" phenomenon too. To dismiss ETH performances during this time period as a "smattering" is surely misguided.

And while other nations from east africa have indeed produced only a "smattering" of top athletes, they are still part of the "east african" equation. Look at Eritrea. They have , in Tadesse, one of the top 2 or 3 runners on the whole planet, and just grabbed two of the top 5 finishers in the men's sr race, and finished second as a team to Kenya.

Finally, the most dominant performance by a nation in a championship distance track race EVER, was most assuredly the performance put on by ETH in the 2003 WC's 10k final. What Bekele, Geb, and Sihine did to the entire field, including any and all Kenyans/Kalenjins was mind-boggling. It was pure destruction.

So to repeat: to dismiss ETH performances during this time period as a "smattering" is surely misguided.

"When you consider that in 2009, considered by many a "year of resurgence", nine Americans broke 2:15:00 for the marathon, and all of them have websites and twitter accounts and tweet every time they pick there noses ..."

I think this addresses the main crux of the matter. A 2:15 marathoner in 1980 garnered only acknowledgment from his friends and teammates and few others. Now, he expects a posse and harem to continually trumpet his praises. Thankfully, I've had conversations with 3 current talented runners who relate their first-ever 100 mile weeks.

I do wish I knew more about the effects of doping on the performances of today. Thanks for the posts and comments, everybody.