Post Pre-Nats who is now individual favourite?

how is Derrick already surpassing Fernandez? He ran better THIS month. That is all. German still has the AJR in the 3k, 5k-and an NCAA title to boot. What does Derrick have?

forest wrote:

future run wrote:

no one's gonna consider how poor herman fernandez's run looked at chili pepper? looks like he might need to make osu's varsity before being picked as a candidate to win

what? i'm pretty sure he brought up a legit point, in a weekend where puskedra and derrick looked very good, and imo chelenga looked just as good as last year, german shat a brick. i'm gunna need to see alot more out of german before he's a canidate to win.

he's what i think the chances should look like:

derrick - 30%

chelange - 25%

puskedra - 25%

german - 15%

anyone else - 5%

OK, I'll give you credit for your numbers. Not exactly what I would think, but not ridiculous.

Two things are ridiculous from your posts, however:

1) "looks like he might need to make osu's varsity before being picked as a candidate to win"

Might need to make osu's varsity?? Perhaps you are just using colorful language here and don't really believe something so absurd. The fact that you give German a 15% chance of winning NCAA (and collectively the other 6 varsity runners at OSU an implicit less than 5% chance) suggests that you really don't believe what you are writing.

2) "i'm gunna need to see alot more out of german before he's a canidate to win"

Again, perhaps it is just your writing habits but clearly German's ability to win has nothing whatsoever to do with your opinion and by extension what you have or have not seen out of him.

Anyway, I don't wildly disagree with your numbers. Perhaps just a stylistic difference.

But the real numbers are as stated above - 30, 30, 30, 10 (Chelanga, Derrick, Fernandez, Other)

I still think Chelanga deserves more of a chance than Derrick or Fernandez.

1) You saw how far ahead of them he was last year. A year later, he's only gotten better.

2) He says that he started his training a month late this season in order to not peak too early like he did last season.

I think it should be

Chelanga 35-40%

Derrick 30%

Fernandez 30%

everyone else 5%

I'll go with 40% for Chelanga so it'll take a 105% effort.

milesplit's useless rankings, good for nothing but a starting point

men -

http://u.milesplit.us/rankings/2009/cc/m/8000m

women -

http://u.milesplit.us/rankings/2009/cc/f/6000m

business plan wrote:

I still think Chelanga deserves more of a chance than Derrick or Fernandez.

1) You saw how far ahead of them he was last year. A year later, he's only gotten better.

2) He says that he started his training a month late this season in order to not peak too early like he did last season.

I think it should be

Chelanga 35-40%

Derrick 30%

Fernandez 30%

everyone else 5%

Agreed.

Greg wrote:

milesplit's useless rankings, good for nothing but a starting point

men -

http://u.milesplit.us/rankings/2009/cc/m/8000m

women -

http://u.milesplit.us/rankings/2009/cc/f/6000m

Not even good for that. What garbage.

You think Hasay can beat 25th?! heh

I agree that Samuel Chelanga still has to tbe the favorite.

He got 2nd last year, beaten only by Galen Rupp, and then he ran 27:28 in the spring, after running 13:19 indoors in the winter. He may not have been in top form for Pre-Nats, but I still think when it comes to 10k Chelanga will have the slight edge/advantage on Derrick, Fernandez, Puskedra, and the rest of the field.

It's hard to say who the individual top contenders will be, but I think, unless there is an injury issue, that German Fernandez, David McNeil, and Matthew Centrowitz will be rounded into nearly top form if not better by nationals. McNeill could be a surprise contender, as could Elliot Heath, Emil Heineking, and Tyson David(won Dellinger and top 10 at ncaa's last year). I'm sure there's a handful of others that can be thrown in there.

As far as team rankings go, I was impressed by University of Oklahoma at the Chile Pepper Invite. They placed 2nd to Ok. State, scoring 52 points with a 47 second 5-man spread on the 10k course. I would consider moving Oklahoma into the top 10 to be honest. I also noticed that Portland 5th man at Pre-Nats ran a 70 seconds slower than Portland's 5th man at Dellinger, Crosby, and he wasn't in the Pre-Nats race, so I think people have to consider whether each team was really running their top guys. Here's how I think the teams could look, post-Pre-Nats:

1. Stanford

2. Ok. State

3. Oregon

4. Northern Arizona (mcniell will be there when it counts)

5. Alabama

6. Colorado (coming down from altitude for 10k always gives them an edge)

7. Virginia (4 guys in top 10 against syracuse, nova, texas a&m and others- avg. 23:45)

8. Portland (didn't run 5th best guy at pre-nats, crosby)

9. University of Oklahoma (scored 52 points @ chile pepper for 2nd place)

10. William & Mary

thenegotiator wrote:

how is Derrick already surpassing Fernandez? He ran better THIS month. That is all. German still has the AJR in the 3k, 5k-and an NCAA title to boot. What does Derrick have?

German doesn't have the AJR in 3k, illegal track. German has the AJR in 5k, but only after making an effort at it to avenge his loss to Derrick. Derrick, if he had been willingly to risk XC for improving a record that he already held, likely could have run faster than 13:25. Derrick has no NCAA title, but there was no Olympian in his race. Centro was out of the 1500m, and even before Centro was out, it was the weaker field. German's best event is supposed to be the 5000m, but he was in 1500m... Why? Because in the 5000m, which is a lot more revelant to XC than the 1500m, he probably would be 4th or worse.

forest wrote:

what? i'm pretty sure he brought up a legit point, in a weekend where puskedra and derrick looked very good, and imo chelenga looked just as good as last year, german shat a brick. i'm gunna need to see alot more out of german before he's a canidate to win.

he's what i think the chances should look like:

derrick - 30%

chelange - 25%

puskedra - 25%

german - 15%

anyone else - 5%

Chelanga - 50%

Derrick - 40%

Puskedra - 5%

German - 1% (Generous considering he was 11th at Chili Pepper, 4th on his team).

Everyone else combined - 4%.

If German wins his conference and regionals then I'll bump up his numbers.

thehostagetaker wrote:

thenegotiator wrote:

how is Derrick already surpassing Fernandez? He ran better THIS month. That is all. German still has the AJR in the 3k, 5k-and an NCAA title to boot. What does Derrick have?

German doesn't have the AJR in 3k, illegal track...

Granted it is not official because the track was the wrong size but do you really think that his effort at 3k was not superior to the "official" record. Perhaps that would require some independent thinking on your part.

Oh, and did I forget to mention that Fernandez also has the WJR for the indoor mile? Let's see, multiple JRs vs zero JRs. Hmmmmm. Perhaps a little too close to call.

LOL.

Why are people picking Fernandez as a co-favorite? The guy was injured for two months, he's still trying to get back in shape, clearly not there yet.

You think he is so much better than Derrick, Chelanga, and Puskedra that he can be this far behind this late in the season and still surpass them?

He's a great talent, yes, and if he had a completely healthy summer and fall he would be my favorite. But he hasn't been healthy, so I don't see him catching those other guys by NCAA championships. By outdoor track sure, but XC is too soon.

did I mention wrote:

German doesn't have the AJR in 3k, illegal track...

Granted it is not official because the track was the wrong size but do you really think that his effort at 3k was not superior to the "official" record. Perhaps that would require some independent thinking on your part.

Oh, and did I forget to mention that Fernandez also has the WJR for the indoor mile? Let's see, multiple JRs vs zero JRs. Hmmmmm. Perhaps a little too close to call.

LOL.[/quote]

An oversized indoor track provides benefits that easily make the difference between Rupp's 3k AJR and German's "noteworthy performance." There is no WJR for the indoor mile, there are no real WJRs for any indoor event.

Derrick just beat freaking Chelanga at Pre-Nationals, German is 11th and 4th on his team while hiding at local invite.

I didn't know stating personal opinions on this site wasn't allowed. I simply meant that Fernandez has over the years gotten a lot more hype than derrick, and while some of it is well deserved, Derrick ran 13:55 solo in high school, just beat sam chelenga at pre nats, and beat fernandez in their only meeting on the track last year. Fernandez got the 5k record back later but he was racing against teg for gods sake. And Fernandez prefers the 5k but didn't run it last year because compared to the 5k the 1500 competition was much less. Maybe derrick isnt as well rounded and thus doesn't have the option. It just seems to me that the hype should be equal at this point. Obviously no one knows how it will play out....that makes for an interesting thread..."i dont know what will happen do you?" "no, do you?" The fun is in speculating. I wasn't trying to impress anyone...just stating my opinion. sorry if you can't deal with that. Who's "we" by the way?

Oh yeah and Chelenga is still the pick

It's pretty clear that Fernandez should not be considered a favorite at this point, as was stated above. Those of you that are hanging onto that are suffering from wishful thinking. Yes, it is possible that he recovers his form and completely recuperates from his time off and injury, etc, but it is certainly not likely. Derrick, on the other hand, just beat Chelanga. Does anyone here really think that Chelanga set that huge gap and then decided he didn't care if Derrick blew by him for the victory? Come on. Also, I don't understand all of the high predictions for Centrowith. Indubitably a great 1500 guy, but he's never been one of the greats at xc. Why not talk more about a guy like Bumbalough who has progressed each year, has a 3:38, 13:30, 13th at NCAA resume? Here is how I see it playing out:

1. Derrick

2. Chelanga

3. Puskedra

4. Bumbalough

5. Vail

6. Heath

7. Mead

8. Bethke

9. Fernandez (benefit of the doubt...remember it's HARD to even get top 10 at NCAA xc)

10. Chipangama

thenegotiator wrote:

how is Derrick already surpassing Fernandez? He ran better THIS month. That is all. German still has the AJR in the 3k, 5k-and an NCAA title to boot. What does Derrick have?

Derrick has a 7th place 2008 NCAA xc finish. Fernandez has a DNF. Simply put, on the NCAA scene, Fernandez has yet to do anything in cross country worthy of stating he's a contender.

Fernandez = hella fast with little to no ncaa xc accomplishments (2008 pre nats he dodged comp., his region is the weakest around, DNF nationals).

Derrick = hella fast with at least four ncaa xc accomplishments (2008 Pac 10 in the hardest region, Regionals once again the hardest, Nationals all american and top 10 and now pre-nats beating Chalenga).

A betting man would say Derrick is the better xc guy and seeing that we aren't talking about a track 5k... Fernandez's accomplishments on the track mean very little past potential.

I was impressed by Derrick beating Chalenga this past weekend. But I'm still skeptical saying he'll do it at Nationals.

Chalenga - 60%

Derrick - 20%

McNeil - 10%

Anyone else - 10%

Defeated over and over and wrote:

music is happiness wrote:

Of the individual favorites, only Derrick is undefeated now...

In college XC there is only one day where it matters who is undefeated and it only matters if you are undefeated for that single day.

Hats off to Derrick. Awesome display at pre-Nats. But it doesn't change anything. Before saturday and now the odds are exactly, precisely and without-any-possibility-whatsoever-of-being-questioned as follows:

Chelanga: 30%

Derrick: 30%

Fernandez: 30%

Rest of Field: 10%

Now please do not waste your time debating what is so obvious. If you wish to discuss the details of the 10% you may.

YOU ARE GOD!!!!!!!!!! NO one question this guy, he knows all and he can not possibly be wrong.

Your an asshole

ahahaha wrote:

YOU ARE GOD!!!!!!!!!! NO one question this guy, he knows all and he can not possibly be wrong.

Your an asshole

You're the greatest!

Just THE greatest! Absolutely hilarious!