No way Lagat will beat Bekele in the 5k

yyy wrote:

Lagat is suffering from being aerobically challenged. This is more common to white milers than east Africans. Mottram, Walker, Scott and Cram are good examples. With his speed, Mottram "should" have been running 12.50.

I don't know about "aerobically challenged", but at the risk of stating the obvious, Mottram, Walker, Scott, and Cram are big guys with big engines.

The East Africans are small guys with big engines. That's the difference.

empty boat wrote:

Good luck staying motivated in running or any area of life, all you defeatists.

THANK YOU! Someone finally says it! I mean, yes, the odds are likely that Lagat will never beat Bekele. But as a recent Versus commercial suggested, competition is not a math test!

I have the utmost respect for Lagat- he's aging, his career is so successful that most of us would be satisfied with having half what he has, and yet he STILL finds new challenges and ambitious, difficult dreams.

He could retire tomorrow and any track fan with half a brain would go "wow, Lagat had an amazingly long and successful career." He has multiple Olympic medals and World Championship medals (including a historic double title), some of the fastest marks ever at 1500m, and yet Lagat's response to all this is "I know I can do better- I'm going to try to beat one of the greatest long distance runners to have ever competed."

How is that worthy of anything less than our respect? It's not like some 16:00 flat guy came on here and said "I will beat Bekele: I will not stop until I reach my goal." Lagat recently lost to Bekele by inches. What kind of lame, defeatist crap would it be for him to go "Oh, I lost to him by a few tenths. . . there's no way I can beat him."

It is my theory that as long as KB stays injury free and keeps concentrating on the track, he's not going to lose an important 5k or any 10k in the next 3 or 4 years. Look at that last Golden League 5k...something like 10 Kenyans trying to prevent him from winning (some top guys too), and it was all for naught.

gus choge can if he concentrates on 5k & retains some of his shorter distance speed

remember, he ran 12'53 as a kid to bust buster & seemed to run inconsistently/infrequently over the distance since

he's know gone 1'44/3'29 this year !

if he is anywhere close to 12'50 endurance, that kinda 800/1500 speed woud kill kennster in a tactical race

So did anyone notice how in the WC 5000 Bekele was going all out? Ditto at World Athletics Finals? His game plan was definitely NOT to let Lagat pass him briefly on the final straight at WCs, yet it happened. Bekele is very lucky that Lagat tied up in the final seconds or it was El G 2004 all over again. On a different day, Lagat wins. Bekele is not a psychic genius who knew down to a matter of seconds when Lagat would break. He just ran a retarded race and got lucky. Lagat obv has a better chance than anyone else in the world to beat Bekele 3000-5000. He just needs to catch Bekele in halfass form like this summer and using horrible tactics... preferably w/o Sihine there as a caddy. It's amazing how far some of you will go to discredit Lagat.

I think if both men race at 3,000-5,000 and are both 100% healthy, Bekele wins. He's a better runner. However, who's ever 100%? Nobody. Lagat is older, so that reduces his chances even more, however, if Lagat CAN stay relatively healthy, and Bekele runs into trouble, which will happen sooner or later, then Lagat definitely has a good chance in a relatively tactical race. But I don't ever see Lagat running a 12:49 to beat Bekele.

People around here who speculate on the outcomes of hypothetical races never seem to take into account the reality of injury. Two and half years ago, who would have predicted that Mottram and Webb would be where they are now? Some probably did, but not very many.

Runner77 wrote:

Lagat is amazing though especially for his age, but Kenenisa is just too strong and still in his prime.

I'd love to see a 5k Kenenisa vs. Lagat vs. Gebrselassie vs. Kipchoge vs. Daniel Komen in their prime.

I forgot to mention EL G, but let's throw Sihine in there for good measure. He's been getting the best of Kipchoge lately

I honestly feel Sihine may have a better chance of beating Bekele then Lagat. He's probably in his prime right now and has been 2nd to Bekele so many times, but maybe he'll get it right one of these days. He looked really good last time I saw him race. I wanna say Sihine won earlier this year, before getting injured, or maybe it was late last year, but either way I know he won a big 5k and was lookin' good. As for him beating Bekele we shall see.

It seems that Bekele would rather hold onto his winning streak these days then go for a world record and risk losing, but we shall see. Hopefully there will be someone challenging Bekele next year.

I don't think choge would serve much of a challenege to bekele if he focused on the 5000m. He's gone 3:29/1:44 this year but keep in mind that he'll be giving up some of that speed. Plus he lost to ali abdosh this year. If he couldn't beat abdosh, how is he going to fair against the king of distance.

ummm..... wrote:He's gone 3:29/1:44 this year but keep in mind that he'll be giving up some of that speed

i doubt he'd lose much more than 0.5s over 800 & 1s over 1500 ( there's some estimates earlier in the thread for bernie moving up )

besides, he has already crushed kennster over 1500m when only a 3'31.73 guy, so i doubt he has any fear of him in a slow 5k - providing he gets back to near 12'50

sighhhhhhh wrote:

He just needs to catch Bekele in halfass form like this summer and using horrible tactics... preferably w/o Sihine there as a caddy. It's amazing how far some of you will go to discredit Lagat.

What kind of person takes pride in defeating someone who is not at their best? Furthermore, you said it yourself - Lagat got beat by a subpar Bekele. So what do you think is going to happen when Bekele is in top shape?

oh snap wrote:

What kind of person takes pride in defeating someone who is not at their best? Furthermore, you said it yourself - Lagat got beat by a subpar Bekele. So what do you think is going to happen when Bekele is in top shape?

This is really stupid. Lagat is no longer at his best. My guess is that Bekele still takes some pride in defeating him.

Regarding Choge, I have long felt he could possibly be a real threat in the 5000, especially in slowish championship races. He ran 13:00, 3:29 and 1:44 this year. If his name was Alan Webb, many of you would be having orgasms over him.

For the last time choge is not going to be a threat to bekele in the 5000m. I don't care what he ran in the 800m and the 1500m. Abdosh beat choge. How in the hell is he going to beat bekele especially if bekele is in WR form?

ummm....... wrote:

For the last time choge is not going to be a threat to bekele in the 5000m. I don't care what he ran in the 800m and the 1500m. Abdosh beat choge. How in the hell is he going to beat bekele especially if bekele is in WR form?

Yeah, you are brilliant. Of course nobody will beat Bekele if he is in WR form. Bekele will never be in 5000wr form again. This seems obvious, but not to you, pinhead. Your assertion regarding Abdosh beating Choge as proof that Choge could not ever be a threat to Bekele proves you're the village idiot.

And lets try to stop making it out that lagat is a old bum that can't hack it anymore. He got a silver and a bronze at world champs!!!! I know he's 34 but it appears that you lagat fans don't wanna give kenny b the full credit he deserves. At first you guys were like "bekele is too scared to face lagat in a kicker's race and if he does, lagat will dust him." Now that bekele has beaten lagat twice in slow tactical 3k/5k races, you say that lagat is a bum. Take your bs somewhere else. Hell in a 3k, I'll put a 2001 version of bekele over a 2001 version of lagat any day.

"Bekele will never be in 5000wr form again"

And how the hell do you know this Nostradamus? It seems that you just DON'T WANT him to be in WR shape rather than accepting the possibility. Man I love arguing with envious, jealous asses like you. And I really hope he breaks the WR so the likes of you will never post here again. BTW has anyone heard from chet recently?

I am not jealous. I am smart, and you are a moron. Bekele set his WR at 5000 five years ago. Next season it will be 6 years old. Welcome to reality, idiot.

And Lagat is passed his prime. However, nobody is saying that he is not still a great runner.

MAPIV wrote:

I am not jealous. I am smart, and you are a moron. Bekele set his WR at 5000 five years ago. Next season it will be 6 years old. Welcome to reality, idiot.

And Lagat is passed his prime. However, nobody is saying that he is not still a great runner.

"i am smart" ???

only an imbecile claims that round here...

It wasn't my finest moment. However, res ipsa loquitur...