RE: Does Galen Rupp really have a shot at winning a medal in Berlin?

Good logic, since Rupp's the only guy in the world who's been training and improving. Everyone else is just going to stay static until he catches up to them.

TK1451 wrote:

Rupp was 13th last year and I figure he's in about 15-seconds faster shape this year than last year. Subtracting 15 seconds from his Beijing time puts him in 8th in that race if everything else stays equal. That works for me because if I had to predict a place off the top of my head I would say 7th.

If he medals it would be remarkable, I give him a <10% chance of that. If he finishes outside of the top 12 it would be very disappointing, I give that a <15% chance.

First, yes, he probably does have an outside shot. Championship races for medals are always less predictable than a race set up to run fast times in a time trial format. I predict he will finish 5th or 6th.

Second, that was extremely funny to suggest that the Africans would gang up on him... as if Rupp would ever occur to them. Can you imagine the Ethiopian team sitting around plotting how they can take Rupp's kick away so Bekele might have a chance to steal a win????

"Good logic, since Rupp's the only guy in the world who's been training and improving. Everyone else is just going to stay static until he catches up to them"

Ummmmm...Rupp has improved a tremendous amount in this last year, far more than any African probably has. I'm not saying he will win or even get a medal, but you have to realize that guys like Bekele aren't really improving at this point in their careers. Who else can say they set a PR in every distance from the 800 all the way up to the 5k in one year? Based on your logic that everyone is constantly improving, we would see the winning time at each major championship continually drop by significant amounts every year. However this is not the case, because people reach their peaks (like Bekele) and don't just continue to improve forever, that's simply not how it works.

Dude, for the most part the guys at the very top ARE static. How much faster has Bekele gotten in the last several years? Sihine? Kogo?

Bekele ran his 26:17 four years ago. Is he a 26:05 guy now? Of course not. Sihine ran his PR (26:39) 5 years ago. Is he a 26:25 guy now? Of course not. Kogo's PR (26:35)was three years ago. Why aren't these guys progressing???

Take away Bekele, Geb, and Tergat, and the ceiling for these guys is basically 26:30. That's not going to change over the course of Rupp's career.

Is Rupp 20 seconds faster than his 10K PR right now? Definitely. 30 seconds? Maybe.

He is catching up - plain and simple. I think Rupp will finish his career with a sub 27:00 10K, but not by much. I think that's probably about his limit - hope I'm wrong. A championship medal is a long shot, but better than no shot at all - which is what we've had for some time.

Or take the 2003 world championships.

Kenenisa Bekele Men's 10,000 meters 1st place - 26:48

Haile Genreselassie Men's 10,000 meters 2nd place

Kenenisa's and Haile's firt 5k's were timed at 13:51

Kenenisa ran his second 5k in 12:57 and Haile ran his in 12:58.

Now this is not all the evidence in te world and I do not think that Galen can kick with any of these guys. In championship races at the international level and even in non-championship races the top guys close their last mile in sub 4:00 and their last 2 miles in around 8:12 - 8:18.

I don't think Galen could do that.

Also in regards to Bekele, Sihine and Kogo not improving. It's much arder to improve by 2 seconds when you've run the times that they have run than it is to improve by 10 seconds when you run in the mid-27:00 range.

Go Galen, I want to see you do it, I really do and here are my predictions for the race:

1st Place: Kenenisa Bekele

2nd Place: Sileshi Sihine (poor Sileshi)

3rd Place: Zersenay Tadesse

4th Place: Boniface Kiprop

5th Place: Moses Masai

6th Place: Sammy Kitawara

7th Place: Moses Kipsiro

8th Place: Galen Rupp

As pointed out, this was right around the time the 3 great Ethiopians ran their fastest ever. None of them seem to be improving on those marks so this fast of race is not likely to occur anytime soon, though it may not be too far off. Perhaps a 13:50 followed by 13:04-13:08.

Bekele just struggled to run 13:00 for a single 5K. As many have stated these are the best of the best and they are coming back to Rupp while he moves forward at a greater rate. Your place predictions are very reasonable to me, but I think the guys from 4-7th will need to be at least within 20 seconds of the winner if they are to be ahead of Rupp. Really looking forward to this. I think if Rupp goes out in 13:50 in Berlin (assuming decent conditions) he will be very comfortable and could come back in at least 13:30.

Also hoping we can get 3 guys in the final of the 5K.

When Kara Goucher won a medal, she ran 32:02 for 3rd place or 2:31 seconds off of the world record. If 3rd place can be earned in 28:47 (or 2:31 seconds slower than 26:17), Rupp would have as good a shot as anybody.

WR comparisons are silly, because you're talking about outliers by definition. The women's 10k record is an EXTREME outlier.

Since Rupp, like his exemplar Pre, will lead the field out at an honest 27 flat pace, you won't have to worry about any slow sit and kick races, right?

Galen will win and keep the streak going!!!!

http://werturtle.mybrute.com

Come on now, don't be knocking good runners and a good program . Kyle King and Thomas Morgan are pretty damn good.

he has a shot... i think if he takes top 5-6 it's still pretty sweet... and being the first non-african is still impressive given the stacked number of entrants from kenya, ethiopia and others...

getting a medal would be shocking given his intense NCAA meets... but then again he did walk the last 5-10 meters at the last few big meets... saving up energy? haha

If AlSal has been working with Galen on the wicked surges that are going to come his way, and he can kick like his has against the the college kid he has a chance.

I 100% am a German Fernandez fan. He ran very smart at USA nationals. Not going with Fam's early crazy splits. The USA runners are not like the Africans. They were content to let the pace lag and German, an 18-years was let back in the hunt. There are too many Africans that will not be content to let the pace slow down and allow a kicker to rest. They are going to hammer. Stuff like this 60, 67 ,61 68, 60 , maybe a 57, like the 1988 Olympic 5k Champ did on lap 3 from Kenyan( I my not going to look his name up, but heran 57.8 on that 3rd lap). They will not allow Galen to do what the USA field allowed German to do, get back in the hunt. The odds are against Galen. Galen ran the 2008 Olympic 10K much like German did at this years USA Champs and was 13th way out of it, The African surging their way to Victory. I hope I am wrong (I hate Rupp, but I am a USA fan) and I hope ALSAL has prepared Galen for the wickedness that is about to come his way.

Almost forgot, Bekele ran 12:58 last 5K at I believe the 2007 world Champs. I forget but with the last 4 years of World Champs or Olympics. I do not think Rupp can sub 13 for 5k right now, let alone after running 14 or better for the 1st 5K.

\"The guys at the top mostly ARE static\"

Yeah. Except you seem to be forgetting that regularly, Kenya and Ethiopia pop out a 26:40-50 guy. Like Wanjiru a few years ago at like age 19. Rupp might be faster than Sihine by 2012, but at that point there will be three more 26:45 guys from Kenya and Ethiopia to replace the ones Rupp has beat.

Rupp might continue to improve. But this last year was probably his biggest, and if he is in 27:10 shape right now I doubt he takes more than 20 seconds faster than that. At that point (if he gets there), he would have a decent chance to medal, but you still have to figure that there will be 4-5 guys in the 27:30 range ahead of him. Regardless of how good Rupp gets, East Africans rule this game; it will take an off day from a few of them for him to nab a medal.

Rupp's best chance at a medal would not be a slow race against a slew of 12:50 guys, but a fast race where a bunch of those sub-27:00 guys aren't prepared or have dehydration issues or something (ala Tergat in the 2004 Athens Marathon).

lohalloran wrote:He doesn't have to worry about the Africans ganging up on him, they don't even know who he is!

Exactly. Nor will they care. He will be destroyed.

balkans wrote:

lohalloran wrote:He doesn't have to worry about the Africans ganging up on him, they don't even know who he is!

Exactly. Nor will they care. He will be destroyed.

I'm glad there are a few rational people on this board.

old miss wrote:

Dear Youngster:

First I think you missed a big part of the point. Second, why is it so hard for all you kids to do a little research?

10,000 Metres - M Final

08 August 2005 - 19:20Position Bib Athlete Country Mark .

1 262 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 27:08.33 .

2 274 Sileshi Sihine ETH 27:08.87 .

3 567 Moses Mosop KEN 27:08.96 (PB)

4 932 Boniface Toroitich Kiprop UGA 27:10.98 (SB)

5 566 Martin Irungu Mathathi KEN 27:12.51 .

6 217 Zersenay Tadese ERI 27:12.82 (NR)

7 270 Abebe Dinkesa ETH 27:13.09 .

8 630 Abderrahim Goumri MAR 27:14.64 .

9 766 Nicholas Kemboi QAT 27:16.22

9 Guys within 8 seconds, all near 27:10.

Dear Idiot,

I gave you way to much credit when I compared you to a special ed 3rd grader.

Moving on: Thanks for the list. It will help me further dissect your logic. What do you notice about these 9 runners?

All but 2 set Pr's in that race. And of those two, one was a 20 year old who had not had much exposure to races outside of Kenya and the other was 9 months away from running 26:37. Nevertheless, you are suggesting that Rupp is not only gonna PR, but PR by twenty-five seconds! And in a championship race! Shit, the only guys that run 27:08 in world champs are guys who can run 26:40's. Let me guess, you think Rupp can run 26:40.

BRILLIANT, ACCURATE VIEW OF RUPP.