Could Augustine Choge Break Komen's 3000M?

Choge will not/can not touch 7:20, it's fast have u seen the video? he hast a slower 15 pr than komen, slower, 5k pr than komen, so somehow he's going to run faster between the two events...nah NEXT!!!!

Good comparisons to Daniel Komen. Interesting to look a little deeper, look at the places Komen finished in his top ten races at 1500.......he was generally well beaten, effectively ‘dragged through’ to fast times (in a similar way that Bob Kennedy was throughout his career). Notable exception obviously his win in Monaco in 97

1500 m, 10 best results:

3:29.46 1 Monaco 16 Aug 1997

3:30.49 4rA Zürich 12 Aug 1998

3:31.10 4 Roma 14 Jul 1998

3:31.17+ 2 Berlin 26 Aug 1997

3:31.29 1 Bratislava 10 Jun 1997

3:32.81 9 Monaco 8 Aug 1998

3:33.86 6 Moskva 5 Sep 1998

3:33.93 3 Oslo 9 Jul 1998

3:34.17 3 Köln 16 Aug 1996

3:34.63 2 Moskva 5 Jun 1995

An interesting and obvious contrast to Choge who has an impressive winning record in his top 1500s:

1500 m, 10 best results:

3:29.47 1 Berlin 14 Jun 2009

3:30.88 1 Doha 8 May 2009

3:31.57 1 Berlin 1 Jun 2008

3:31.73 1 Doha 11 May 2007

3:32.40 1rA Saint-Denis 18 Jul 2008

3:32.48 1 Berlin 3 Sep 2006

3:32.72 1r2 Zürich 18 Aug 2006

3:33.01 1 Shanghai 23 Sep 2006

3:33.37 3 Stuttgart 10 Sep 2006

3:33.51 1r4 Heusden 22 Jul 2006

Komen's mile 3:46 he was third as well. Common theme seems to be no kick.

Choge has that kick, and is just a touch faster than needed for 3k, it will help him win it, but not break 7:20, that time is just sick. 7:25 would be good for him, no way he hits 7:22.

Choge probably could go faster over 800, maybe 1:43. That was a terrible race the top 5 could have gone a second faster.

um....ever heard of jordan hassay?

Komen lost a lot of races due to lack of basic speed. I don't know what his 800 pr was but in all races I've seen of his he never had a great burst of speed so wouldn't surprise me if Choge was quicker. Komen was just the most comfortable runner ever at 60 sec/400m pace. Guy was a damned machine.

accepted he had no kick at 3'29/3'30 pace, but problem for lot of 3k+ guys dropping down is running the 1500 "poorly"

it maybe an intimidatory aspect as 1500 is the blue-riband event & best-of-the-baddest are kings, even if you are 7'20 or 12'39 dudes, you may be in "awe" of those 3'26/3'27 - 3'43/3'44 guys

even i learnt something quite revelatory when i saw morceli's 3'27wr on youtube just recently for the 1st time since he set it ( & not analysing it back in '94 ) - need to check out 800 split

he really pushed it hard from ~550m out, which is what a "3k/5k guy" shoud do (albeit he was likely 1'43-flat at the time)

komen probably, because of fear of "big boy" in race ( some ramziesque ) & "accepted convention" of running a 1500 (follow wabbit to bell & then put in last lap kick) likely just ran wrong race strategy

a non-kicker is never going to put in more than 56 for it & wabbits never get you to bell in 2'31/2'32 ( they usually struggle to get you there in 2'34 at best, more like 2'35/2'36 normally )

if he had pushed hard from 550 - 600 out off 1'51/1'52 wabbits ( before they myxamatosed at 850 - 950m in ), there is a very good chance he couda got into the 3'28s

i'm almost embarassed having to make a case for komen to be able to run 3'28 off ideal strategy, so i'd categorise this as desultory...

Or maybe the competition was tougher in 1995-1998 (El G and Morcelli) which would explain the 2nd and 3rds. I also think he was a different runner after 1997. He still ran some fast times but was as consistent

how'd he do in the olympics by the way?

a wrote:

An interesting and obvious contrast to Choge who has an impressive winning record in his top 1500s:

1500 m, 10 best results:

3:29.47 1 Berlin 14 Jun 2009

3:30.88 1 Doha 8 May 2009

3:31.57 1 Berlin 1 Jun 2008

3:31.73 1 Doha 11 May 2007

3:32.40 1rA Saint-Denis 18 Jul 2008

3:32.48 1 Berlin 3 Sep 2006

3:32.72 1r2 Zürich 18 Aug 2006

3:33.01 1 Shanghai 23 Sep 2006

3:33.37 3 Stuttgart 10 Sep 2006

3:33.51 1r4 Heusden 22 Jul 2006

[/quote]

no way can this guy come close to Komen's record. If it were to be broke it would have been by Geb, ElG or Bekele. Also I don't know if anyone put this but Geb best 1500 was 3:31 but it was from indoor. I think still the #2 all time. Also ElG's 5k of 12:50 is deceiving. If he would have run it more he would definitely be closer to 12:40 or better.

This record is equivalent to Wang's 8:06, i.e. untouchable.

The difference, of course, is that the latter was drug assisted.

xxx wrote:

This record is equivalent to Wang's 8:06, i.e. untouchable.

The difference, of course, is that the latter was drug assisted.

Only way women can be equivalent is drug assisted.

Youtube video of the 3000m record run from 1996. Keep in mind that he ran a 5000m race two days before this.

Here are the splits I managed to pick up from the video:

400m: 57.5

800m: 1:56 (~59)

1000m: 2:25.89 (59.26)

1200m: ~2:55

1400m: 3:23.55 (57.66)

1600m: ~3:55

1800m: 4:23.46 (59.91)

2000m: 4:53.18

2200m: 5:21.83 (58.3)

2600m: 6:21.58 (59.75)

2800m: 6:51 (2800)

3000m: 7:20.67 (59.09)

At the time Komen ran it the record was Morcelli's 7:25.11. Komen's time was also 18 seconds faster than his best the year before and he had chopped off 35 seconds (24 the year before, 11 more in the year leading up to this race) from his 5000m time in the two years leading up to this. He set his 5000m personal best the next year with his 12:39.74 world record, another 6 second improvement. His best in the 1500m was 3:29.46 (neither Bekele nor Geb have run that fast, but Morcelli ran faster with 3:27).

Gebrselassie ran his 7:25.09 personal best in 1998, the same year he ran his 12:39.36 5000m personal best (5k in June, 3k in August). (The combination of Komen and Geb fighting it out dropped the 5000m record from 12:54 to 12:39 in two years when previously it had been going down by at most three or four seconds at a time.)

Bekele ran his 7:25.79 in 2007 and his 12:37.35 in 2004. Three years separated. Chances are, Bekele could have done a bit better in 2004 than he did in 2007 by virtue of the fact that he was in world record 5000m shape in 2004 and was probably not in 2007 (the best he ran that year was 12:49).

This just illustrates what kind of runner it's going to take to beat this record. We're talking someone who's a 3:27/3:45 1500/miler and a 13:45 5000m runner (or most likely better). El Guerrouj holds the 2000m record at 4:44.79 (and ran a 7:23.09 for 3k and 12:50.24 5000m), and Komen was only 9 seconds off that at 2k during his record run, so you probably need someone who's able to run under 4:50 with enough endurance to hold close to that pace all the way through to 3000m.

Choge's posted some pretty good times. I'd say if he gets his 5000m time down into the mid to low 12:40s and chops another second or two off his 1500 the record may go down. But it's been 4 years since he ran his best 5k/3k times, so he would need to switch focuses.

xxx wrote:

This record is equivalent to Wang's 8:06, i.e. untouchable.

The difference, of course, is that the latter was drug assisted.

So it is certain that Wang's 8:06 was drug assisted but Komen's 18 second improvement was a natural progression and clean?

We'll never know if Komen was clean or not, but surely we can't all be naive enough to think that there isn't some connection between the vast improvements in times over 3, 5 & 10 k in the mid-late 90's and the availability of a non-detectable drug which increases endurance. I mean, if you knew that you could take something, with no chance of being caught, which would make you run 10 secs faster and make a lot more money, wouldn't you take it? I think a lot of people would take that opportunity.

I don't think Choge will break 7:25 and I doubt Komen's record will be broken for at least 10 years.

7'20 is perfectly in keeping with a guy with simultaneous 3'29/12'39 ability ( albeit komen didn't run those pbs all in same year, but no one seriously doubts he couda run 3'29 or 12'39 on that day in rieti )

the problem with the "undetectable drug" theory is that it has no longer been undetectable since '00 & we have seen 1'42, 3'26, 12'37 & 26'17

we saw 1:42 prior to the EPO era, i.e. Coe. Cruz, Sammy Langat (sp?)...

There was a "caffeine issue" as I recall

It is difficult to wun world wecord waces even with good wabbits.

So you really don't think any top distance runner has been taking EPO since 2000 (late 2001 first test outside Olympics)? You really think Ramzi only started taking it prior to Beijing and all his other wins/times were legitimate? He wouldn't even have been caught if they hadn't decided to keep tests indefinitely just prior to the Games. If he's got away with it all these years you can bet that there are others.They test for EPO up to 2008 has been proven to be completely unreliable anyway, that's why they changed it in 2008.Can't remember the link, will post it on here later.Even with the new test there will always be a few that manage to slip through the net and get away with it.

ventolin wrote:

7'20 is perfectly in keeping with a guy with simultaneous 3'29/12'39 ability ( albeit komen didn't run those pbs all in same year, but no one seriously doubts he couda run 3'29 or 12'39 on that day in rieti )

the problem with the "undetectable drug" theory is that it has no longer been undetectable since '00 & we have seen 1'42, 3'26, 12'37 & 26'17

Of course 7:20 is keeping with someone running 3:29 & 12:39, but that is a moot point if he was taking anything, because his 1500 and 5K times would be jumped up too!

no

the epo test hasn't changed for the ~ 4 "standard" types of epo which have been around since '90s - it's sill being used - there is nothing wrong with this test providing sample hasn't heat-degraded & test done within few days of epo taken

a 5th epo - cera, which is markedly different from the previous 4 epos & not picked up by standard test, required a "new" test - it's an additional test to standard

also there is no "jumping" up of 1500 or 5k times for his 7'20 :

- a 3'29 guy requires hypothetical 12'40 endurance to run 7'20

- a 12'40 guy requires hypothetical 3'29 endurance to run 7'20

the 3 clockings are consistent with each other

ventolin wrote:

no

the epo test hasn't changed for the ~ 4 "standard" types of epo which have been around since '90s - it's sill being used - there is nothing wrong with this test providing sample hasn't heat-degraded & test done within few days of epo taken

a 5th epo - cera, which is markedly different from the previous 4 epos & not picked up by standard test, required a "new" test - it's an additional test to standard

also there is no "jumping" up of 1500 or 5k times for his 7'20 :

- a 3'29 guy requires hypothetical 12'40 endurance to run 7'20

- a 12'40 guy requires hypothetical 3'29 endurance to run 7'20

the 3 clockings are consistent with each other

Your confidence in the EPO testing procedures carried out don't seem to be shared with many in the Scientific community, if the following article is to be believed!

You completely got the wrong end of the stick with the other comment. I know that 3:29, 7:20 and 12:39 are consistent with each other. I was trying to point out that "IF" Komen were using something to help him run 7:20, then it would also "jump up" his 1500 & 5000m times as well.