Over or under 13:15 for Fernandez

I say under 13:15. Dude has some crazy talent.

Galen Rupp already ran 13:18 this season. German's Jr. US championships race proved that he can go the distance with the likes of Rupp (both beat up on Puskedra/Derrick equally). Also with a 3:55 indoor mile and a tactical 747.97 3k shows that German is certainly capable of running at Rupp's level for a 5k. So if you believe Rupp will go way under 13:15 (as I do) then German certainly is capable.

I believe German will give 13 a scare this year.

the rocket wrote:

I believe German will give 13 a scare this year.

And I believe that you should probably stay far away from Vegas in your current state of mind.

right now, based upon his recent 3:55, i think he could go about 13:24.

to go 13:12, i think would require a bit more leg speed, say 3:52 mile, but as someone else said, the right race.

perhaps in a race such as a high profile invitational (Texas Relays? Mt. SAC Relays?) I could see him running that fast at Mt. SAC--home crowd (as close to it as possible), and the race is usually run under 13:20.

Go German!

His 3k pace of 7:47.97 is just a hair under 13 minute pace and this race was very tactical. I really believe he can come close to holding this pace for a 5k. I don't think he will actually crack 13 minutes this year, but 13:03-05 is a reasonable range.

I think the question should be over or under 13:00! The kid has the talent to do it this year. Why not? He has gone out there everytime and put people to shame. You cant set limits on this kind of talent.

young gunna wrote:

I think the question should be over or under 13:00!

Let's be serious. If he can get into the right race on the European circuit, I think that 12:36 is a distinct possibility!! Kenenisa WHO?!?

Under

What are you on?!?! I think if he breaks 13:20 it will be a great result for him.

the rocket wrote:

His 3k pace of 7:47.97 is just a hair under 13 minute pace and this race was very tactical. I really believe he can come close to holding this pace for a 5k. I don't think he will actually crack 13 minutes this year, but 13:03-05 is a reasonable range.

Sub 13:20 would be good, but he may even be able to go lower still. Will he? Time will tell.

What am I on? Well, I keep it on the crete mostly. (thanks concrete runner)

Er... wrote:

What are you on?!?! I think if he breaks 13:20 it will be a great result for him.

the rocket wrote:

His 3k pace of 7:47.97 is just a hair under 13 minute pace and this race was very tactical. I really believe he can come close to holding this pace for a 5k. I don't think he will actually crack 13 minutes this year, but 13:03-05 is a reasonable range.

Er..., This is probably the most reasonable statement on this thread.

I say 13:22. MAN!...do I hope I'm wrong. But the 13:20 range for this year is most likely.

3.55 indoors = 3.50 outdoors??

Try telling Nate Brannen that. What does Kim Smiths 14.39 convert to outdoors then? If its 5 secs a mile she just scared the WR running in lane 2.

You run what you run, German ran 3.55.02, convert this to a 1500 if you like, but not outdoors. It is possible he will run no faster outdoors.

Although Rupp ran 13.18 indoors, that was in a very good indoor race, I don't see Rupp breaking 13.07 outdoors ever.

Logic tells me that 13:15-13:20 would be amazing and a perfect storm race for him. But I really have to defy logic, because logic is just coming from performances and PR's that others have set in the past and then weighing out what their PR's were in other events and guestimating from there.

Perhaps that is the problem with American distance running.

People put limits on Rupp for the past 5 years, but yet he has been overcoming those limits. He seems to be on a nice upward trend while many people thought he was tapped out some time ago. When you run 24 laps of 30-40 drill as one of your first workouts back in the fall, and then go 1:49 indoors for an 800 after a half decade of strength training and racing long distances, to me everything from 1500-10K is up for some very big PR's.

I don't think German or Rupp put rational limits on their abilities. Rupp's is certainly calculated more since he is coached by Salazar, but it is not limited. German is just a huge question mark. Seemingly he has HUGE upside. If he stays injury free, and if his coach can be smart with him and not get carried away, I just don't know what he is capable of.

I beilieve Rupp is capable of 13:00-13:05 this season if he goes to Europe. In a state side fast race I think he can crack 13:10. German may have less opportunities, since going to Europe may not be an option for him and he may not hold up for that long. Most people cannot, Rupp has been an exception.

I think German is right now in the realm of Rupp for 5K. If he can continue this kind of progress to outdoors I'd put him in the category of 13:05-13:10 in Europe (probably won't see that) or 13:10-13:15 at somewhere like Mt. Sac or Cardinal Invite.

That's assuming that he progresses and has some racing left from May-July. And if he does do this, I hope he goes pro and focusses on a pro season schedule.

For me this workout is what makes German scary:

http://www.flotrack.org/videos/coverage/view_video/234127/78340-episode-7-ok-state-cowboys

A true freshman,coming into college, September and he's handling some of the biggest boys in NCAA cross country. He basically walked into college as one of the best, a top 5-10 NCAA cross guy from day one. Before any benefit of training on the collegiate level.

t-man wrote:

over. to run mid-teens in the ncaa is really special. it's not enough to be fit enough, you also have to get the right race. odds that he gets fit enough to run that fast AND gets into the right race to make it happen = pretty slim.

that said, i hope i'm wrong. i'm a fan.

I understand what you're saying, but that's what people said about him breaking the 2-mile record last year. Who would've thought anyone, let alone an 18-year old, could break the collegiate indoor record without competition? This kid doesn't need the right race, he just makes it the right race.

iam glad he is doing his best this shows Americans should put it down to working hard instead of BSing all the time africans do well in distance so what difference has this boy got from africans nothing (only color). so it is time not to put presure on him or else he will never reach his potential.but this boy can run 12:55 this year and under 12:48 next year only thing presure should be put on him

Catch Me If You Can wrote:

...but that's what people said about him breaking the 2-mile record last year.

You again? I see that you still haven't sobered-up.

He broke the HS 2-mile record as a senior. Now he's a freshman, and suddenly he is going to break the American-born collegiate 5,000m record based upon an impressive indoor race? Wishful thinking, at best. I could very easily counter by saying that his 5,000m record attempts might be closer to what you saw at last year's Footlocker nationals OR this year's NCAA D1 cross-country.

He's a great kid, but we really should avoid drowning in our own hyperbole!

13:20 in the Spring. If he gets into a Golden League or other Euro race or two this summer, perhaps a sub 13:12.

iam not comparing him to American kids i put him in caliber of the likes of Kinenesa B, Isaac songok, Augustus Choge Eluid choge ....this is where he belongs not the Bobs, Dathan or manzanos.

but i just pray americans not to put presure on him that way 2011 WC or london 2012 you may see adouble in 1500/5000

no 13:20 if by him self the 12:55 iam thinking of golden league with that that means average of 2:35 /1km

thatis 1km (2:35) 2km (5:10) 3km(7:45) 4km(10:20)and 5km(12:55) he already has the 3k at 7:48 in feb so in golden league he needs not to cook the pace just follow the flow with the lead pace up to 4000m then he can do what ever he wants