Runner108 wrote:
I think if you told him to walk the first lap he would still go out in 60. That is freaking 15 seconds slower than he can run the 400.
In response the the other post. I don't believe your 50 second hs friends can break 5 without any training at all. bullshit.
My first year training for the 400 in college (I ran 50.04) our coach made every sprinter and jumper on the team do two 1600m time trials about 2 months apart.
I broke 5:00 both times without feeling at my limit. Both times my 24' long jump teammate did as well (his training was not surprisingly much shorter and speed oriented than my 400 training). We both did even splits passing the lead to work together and ran 4:58 We did this because our coach told us if we broke 5 we didn't have to do the time trial again (she lied and told us the same thing the second time, but kept her promise the second time, not making us do it a third time).
The remaining 20 or so sprinter/jumper guys on our team ran somewhere between 5:10 and 6:45. Some of these guys were 46" 400 runners and couldn't break 5:00, one guy was a 10.5" 100m runner who also couldn't break 5:00.
The point is that I think it is well within the realm of possibility that Bolt could break 5, but I don't think we can predict. I would guess that if he were legitimately trying, he would run somewhere between 4:40 and 6 minutes, but it depends almost entirely on his natural cardio fitness since he likely does no training for this, so we are at a loss as to actually able to speculate.
And to the person who said he "doesn't believe" that the earlier poster's 52 second 400m teammate really could break 5:00, just look up decathlon results. I am now a decathlete, so I can attest that pretty much no decathlete does any training for anything longer than the 400, and yet there are still many who could break 5 in the mile with ease. It isn't too unusual for a decathlete to be able to run in the 4:10 range for 1500, so sub 4:30 for the mile, just based on natural cardio strength combined with a lot of speed training, but no endurance training.