so how long before fernandez 2 mile record goes down?

gw wrote:

Wait until a Kenyan exchange student or naturalized citizen has a shot. There have been 17 year-old kenyans run under 13 for 5k, they probably could hit 8:15ish. That will put it out to the stratosphere.

Anyone with a shread of intelligence would know that the Kenyans are all doped up.

stallionfool wrote:

Chris Derrick would only ran 8:44 if he was healthy, yet alone break 8:40,

Don't really see the reasoning behind that. The kid ran his last 3200 of his 13:55 5000 in 8:49, in April. He supposedly was already sick with mono when he ran 8:48.

The focus is wrong wrote:That's not the point. The guys lie about their ages. Look at Eliud Kipchoge. Only a blind man believed he was a junior when he set the jr. record. Let their best juniors run, not just some fast guy officials run in junior races to grab medals or some guy who lies about his age hoping to nab a scholarship down the line, like Haile.

also thinker abouter wrote:

]SOME lie about their ages, not all. Therefore, the record would probably be smashed by an African who can run under 8:20.

Do any of the Africans ever give a correct birthdate? Seems like they're always changing them. Even Kipketer was unable to get it right, giving three different birthdates.

Jeff Nelson historian wrote:

moonwatcher wrote:

there's a reason that record held for 29 years, its special. If Fernandez didn't show up it may have held up for another 29

And with all due respect to German's fantastic performance, if Jeff Nelson hadn't been elbowed onto the infield of Drake Stadium during the homestretch of his 8:36, he might still hold the record!

But the wash is that Nelson had more company to run with than Fernandez did.

stallionfool wrote:

Chris Derrick would only ran 8:44 if he was healthy, yet alone break 8:40,

13:55 is worth a sub 8:40.

...three years.

15-20

the sport is more mainstream now

haha, No.

right at 8:40 according to Daniels

Where is this Fernandez kid going to college? He seems to have the genetics to be great!!!

Jeff Nelson wrote:

But the wash is that Nelson had more company to run with than Fernandez did.

No, I'm sorry, but that's not a "wash." Anybody who saw the way that Nelson was treated during that race (just like the person who replied to my original post) realizes that the competition did him more harm than good!

Anybody who saw the way that Nelson was treated during that race (just like the person who replied to my original post) realizes that the competition did him more harm than good!

Which is why he ran his PR there?

sc42 wrote:

Which is why he ran his PR there?

No, Nelson ran his record despite the way he was treated there.

I think as a rule posters should not imply doping until or unless the subject of the post has been caught doping. Other message boards for cycling and triathlon follow this protocol. If any of us were the subject of a post we would expect the same, right?

fasterat48 wrote:

I think as a rule posters should not imply doping until or unless the subject of the post has been caught doping. Other message boards for cycling and triathlon follow this protocol. If any of us were the subject of a post we would expect the same, right?

Not at all. If I ran a WR or a significant age group record, I would expect to be suspected. Not all dopers get caught. It makes no sense to believe or act as if everyone who's never been caught is clean.

Anyway, good thread topic. Sorry to contribute to the tangent.

I think the record will stand for 5-10 years. I would be surprised by anything over 12. I agree with a few earlier posters: there's momentum right now for HS track in the US with Ritz Hall and Webb in the thick of their careers and Rupp in recent memory. The minor frenzy over AJ Acosta's senior season is evidence of the interest fast HS times can generate. German keeps the ball rolling.

On the other hand, his record is very special. If it and other significant record aren't broken in the next ten years the momentum might stop and we could be looking at another thirty years before it goes down.

I think it will quite some time before it is broken. It will take a unique kid who will have the speed at 4 minutes for the mile and instead of chasing the sub 4, chases the 2 mile record.

Congrats to Fernandez, as the time he ran is quite amazing. There is a big difference between his time and the 8:40-8:45 range, although I think we will see 6-8 kids running in that range over the next 5 years which will be great for high school track. Also, I think we will see more high schoolers running fast 5ks as there are more of them today and the 14 minute barrier is a teaser.