Webb Is In Trouble

Without any additional information, I think it's stupid to try to pronounce Webb "in trouble" or "just fine". Anybody know how he's been training?

I think that's a completely fair point. Everybody knows that Webb has the AR and the world's fastest mile last year. I think we all agree that Webb is still a likely Olympic qualifier....but the days when Webb could show up with his B game and still dominate are over. At the last OT, he had it easily. The level of competition has gotten better and he's going to have to show up with his A game to qualify.

oh man, remember how bad of year El G had in 2004? He didn't run his first real race until the end of July and he ran really bad, got beat by a lot of people. I knew he was in trouble after that, just look how badly he finished that year.

Webb will win the trials and Sage will fly around the bend to finish third. Its all about timing in this event.

In Kenya, the very best runners sometimes get left out because of an off day at the Trials. The US has good enough depth at 1500 that it could happen to anyone, including the aging Lagat.

That said, May is very early to be worrying about fitness for May. Most of the big guns haven't raced yet seriously. Webb's bigger problem is that he's had some bad races, but his biggest problem will be trying to figure out the competition in the final.

If you don't think it's too soon, here's the yearly lead so far, much of it from Friday. Iguider and Moustaoui don't get much hype, neither does Simotwo, but they're two very consistent competitors who should be at 3:30-31 by August. Korir was third in Osaka.

3:33.27 Abdalaati Iguider MAR 25/03/1987 1 Doha 09/05/2008

3:33.31 Mohamed Moustaoui MAR 02/04/1985 2 Doha 09/05/2008

3:33.32 Antar Zerguelaine ALG 04/01/1985 3 Doha 09/05/2008

3:33.54 Alex Kipchirchir KEN 26/11/1984 4 Doha 09/05/2008

3:33.90 Mohammed Shaween KSA 15/02/1986 5 Doha 09/05/2008

3:34.06 Suleiman Kipses Simotwo KEN 21/04/1980 6 Doha 09/05/2008

3:35.56 Thamer Kamal Ali QAT 12/11/1988 7 Doha 09/05/2008

3:36.14 Shedrack Kibet Korir KEN 12/04/1978 8 Doha 09/05/2008

I think webb serously overtrained, but its good that he found it out this early in the season, he has a great coach and he is excelent at sucking in the beguining and kicking ass at the end of seasons.

never discount lagat, i predict him to medal at olympics.

I agree. Smart money would pick Lagat over Webb. And L gets at least a bronze and probably better.

It's May 11th. Don't get too stressed yet. Better to peak late than early in an Olympic year.

miles of trials wrote:

oh man, remember how bad of year El G had in 2004? He didn't run his first real race until the end of July and he ran really bad, got beat by a lot of people. I knew he was in trouble after that, just look how badly he finished that year.

Are you comparing El G with Webb?

Too Early wrote:

It's May 11th. Don't get too stressed yet. Better to peak late than early in an Olympic year.

I guess Kenny B won´t be a factor i Beijing then, since he won the World XC champ.

My guess is he had been building up his endurance during years prior to last year.

Last year he seemed to focus solely on speed. He basically cashed all his savings last year.

It is tough to go back to basics and rebuild.

Killa Mike, you are spot on, even if you will be accused of bashing. Anyone looking at this objectively knows its mainly mental, with a dash of questionable coaching and training methods at times.

I HOPE he gets onto the team as he deserves it with his incredible body of work and best native born talent ever.

Killa Mike, you are spot on, even if you will be accused of bashing. Anyone looking at this objectively knows its mainly mental, with a dash of questionable coaching and training methods at times.

I HOPE he gets onto the team as he deserves it with his incredible body of work and best native born talent ever.

miles of trials wrote:

oh man, remember how bad of year El G had in 2004? He didn't run his first real race until the end of July and he ran really bad, got beat by a lot of people. I knew he was in trouble after that, just look how badly he finished that year.

Webb is no El G. The comparison is laughable.

tunkcart wrote:

Without any additional information, I think it's stupid to try to pronounce Webb "in trouble" or "just fine". Anybody know how he's been training?

Exactly. It's all speculation.

There are two distinct factors here. There is a physical factor, and a mental factor. Physically, there could be something very wrong with Webb. If he is sick or if his body is just fried for whatever reason (overtraining, who knows), there is still plenty of time to recover, unless there's something deeper going on. I'm mostly concerned with how his poor start is going to affect him MENTALLY. If he puts together a great race or two before or at the trials, he will probably be fine. But we all know that Webb is not the most mentally consistent runner. He is very emotional and simply gets too keyed up from time to time. Will he be able to shake this rocky start and trust his fitness, talent, and toughness? Assuming there is nothing seriously wrong with him, this is an issue of the MIND, and there is no telling how it will play out.

I highly doubt Webb won't qualify unless there is a major physical problem underlying these performances. Webb and Lagat are head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the competition, and even if Webb is only at 80% fitness, he will qualify if he can get his head on straight. The Olympics are completely unpredictable for ANYONE, but especially for a guy like Webb who will dominate an international field one week and then fade to 8th the next.

Honestly how do people feel now about Webb with the trials three weeks away?

I don't think this was a HORRIBLE performance, not a great one, but not horrible either. I do believe that this 'shakeout' should have happened about a month ago though. His lack of sharpening might affect him when he's asked to run rounds at the Trials.

Honestly, with three weeks until the trials I do not think Alan is going to make the team. Lagat will win it(if he wants), Manzano is VERY sharp right now, and Lomong has the A standard and beat Webb today I believe.

He split 1:56, 1:59 I believe. His facial expressions looked like he was laboring. I was hoping for even splits. Right now I don't think he is in good position to make the team, but he is racing next weekend. It is a late opening race but that shows he is either confident or not ready at all.

I think he is walking a dangerous tightrope. He doesn't want to peak in a major way for the trials, but obviously needs a top 3 to get to the Olympics. I'm totally giving him and Raczko (sp?) the benefit of the doubt. They want to be at their best in August, and hopefully will run his best race of the season in the Olympic Finals. A bunch of rounds to survive between the trials and (hopefully) the Olympics between now and then. Webb still is my boy.