Olympic Marathon Trials - Top-10 Predicted Order of Finish

I do not know if anyone is trying to 'swing' the totals, but there are several posters that have left top guys off their list entirely. This skews the vote by dropping them much more than would listing them as, say, 7th, instead of the zero of exclusion. Later I may update my listing omitting any that seem designed to do just that. People can do their own tally if they want.

1. Abdi

2. Culpepper

3. Hall

4. Sell

5. Gilmore

6. Browne

7. Morgan

8. Ritz

9. Shay

10. Hussein

- Five Hanson runners in the next ten

- Meb and KK DNF with injuries

1. Hall

2. Abdi

3. Sell

4. Meb

5. Khannouchi

6. Culpepper

7. Gilmore

8. Ordway

9. Ritz

10. Jurcevich

1. Ronnie Holassie

2. Abdi

3. Ed Torres

4. Adam Wallace

5. Meb

6. Sell

7. Culpepper

8. Hall

9. Gilmore

10. Ritz

Ok I'm an idiot.

1. Abdi

2. Hall

3. Sell

4. Culpepper

5. Lem

6. Cox

7. Gilmore

8. Rohatinsky

9. Renaue (sp?)

10. Morgan

KK DNF, Meb DNF or 2:20, Browne DNF or 2:20

1. Abdi

2. Hall

3. Sell

4. Ritz

5. Culpepper

6. Lem

7. Cox

8. Gilmore

9. Fazil

10. Rohatinsky

I'm idiot, ignore my last post. I totally forgot about Ritz and Fazil.

KK DNF, Meb DNF or 2:20, Browne DNF or 2:20, I feel awful saying this I'm big Dan Brown fan-Go Army!-but after the TC 10 I've got a bad feeling

1. abdi

2. sell

3. culpepper

4. meb

5. hall

6. bizuneh

7. gilmore

8. ritz

9. cox

10. hussein

Just remember that athens was a hard course just like the New York course will be. And remember the Meb got a silver medal and destroyed all those good kenyans that can run fast only when its a flat course. I see Meb doing very well!! I think people underestimate culpepper and his strong ability to race good championship races. Hall isnt as expirenced in the marathon but might have a good day and maybe working hard for this so he might do well. Abdi is a great runner ans should be up there. KK is a legend and will stay that way. Sell is a hard worker and seems to know what he's doing and has a good marathon background with lots of strength and expirence. Gilmore is a hard worker too and I can see him up there. I for some reason dont see ritz running that good. I think he's tough and a great competitor but I think he's gonna be hurting to keep up with most of the big guns. Granted I do see him as a top 7 person though and Ill probably be eating these words after.

1.) meb

2.) culpepper

3.) abdi

4.) sell

5.) hall

6.) KK

7.) Ritz

8.) Gilmore

9.) Shay

1 Sell

2 Abdi

3 Meb

4 Hall

5 Culpeps

6 Hussein

7 Ritz

8 Browne

9 Gilmore

10 Shay

dnf:KK

26mi235 wrote:

I do not know if anyone is trying to 'swing' the totals, but there are several posters that have left top guys off their list entirely. This skews the vote by dropping them much more than would listing them as, say, 7th, instead of the zero of exclusion. Later I may update my listing omitting any that seem designed to do just that. People can do their own tally if they want.

do what you want but why in hell would you think some group has conspired to skew the totals on a letsrun thread

some folk see mebs calf as a dnf reason some see kk's uneven record as a reason to think poor finish or believe Abdi has a cold that will cause last minute training problems or halls newcomer status will effect his race according to you these not good enough reasons to skip them because would it skews the results away from your list of favorites is your ego so fragile that disagreeing with you places other posters on the darkside of a plot to discredit your superior knowledge of all things running and cast you out of the limelight you so richly earned

When I think about all the possibilities for this race, only one thing remains constant in my mind. Abdi will make the team. I can imagine everyone else not making the team, but I just don't see Abdi missing out.

KK might not start or finish. Meb is proven, but he doesn't have a great race every time out. Sell might not be fast enough. Hall had a great debut, but he's never been Mr. consistent. Culp doesn't seem to have the same desire as some of the guys who haven't made the team yet. and on and on with all the others.

That said, here's my prediction as of now (likely to change by tonight and again by tomorrow)

1. Abdi

2. Meb

3. Hall

4. Sell

5. Browne

6. KK

7. Ritz

8. Culp

9. Gilmore

10. Torres

10. Cox (wish it were Michael, but I'm predicting Josh)

The total or average across forecasters is only valid for the expected place of the runner. In this context, if you think that KK is 50% 1,2,or3, 50% DNF, then is expected score is 0.5 *((10+9+8)/3) + 50% * 0If you think that KK has a 100% likelihood of DNF and zero chance of finishing top 10 then leave him out.For other purposes the approach to the question is fine, but it will not give a good answer to the aggregate opinion across those polled. This is just one approach to using 'expert opinion' but it works pretty well in some contexts. If you have more information on the 'quality' of those polled then you can give them more weight, which is also done in methodologies using 'expert opinion'. My wife has several refereed papers -- Operations Research?? cannot remember -- on this topic both empirical and theoretical, so I know a bit about the topic since I am in a related field. In a different manner, sports bookies end up collection similar information through the bets placed by a large number of bettors.

1. Sell

2. Abdi

3. Culpepper

4. Ritz

5. Khalid

6. Hussein

7. Hall

8. Meb he will dnf but if I don't include him the Nazi will not include my vote

9. Gilmore

10. Reneau

26mi235 wrote:

If you think that runner(edit xyz) has a 100% likelihood of DNF and (EDIT -OR)zero chance of finishing top 10 then leave him out(EDIT of your top 10 picks).

better to think messageboard pickers thought some thing like that than that your wifes paper referee should be involved in correcting their thoughts.

grassy knoll guy wrote:

26mi235 wrote:

If you think that runner(edit xyz) has a 100% likelihood of DNF and (EDIT -OR)zero chance of finishing top 10 then leave him out(EDIT of your top 10 picks).

better to think messageboard pickers thought some thing like that than that your wifes paper referee should be involved in correcting their thoughts.

I am not sure what you mean either by your edits or your comments. Would you care to elaborate a little - I might have mis-phrased it but I do not think so?

Do you think that the formula is wrong for that calculation? I put both parts of the calculation in there so that it was a little more clear that I was assigning no points to places lower than 10th, and the formula does not depend on the first part being 100%, I just did not want the collapsed formula for the special case of 100%

Do you think that the calculation is inappropriate or wrong, do you not like math? Do you have an alternative method for aggregating across those submitting opinions that you think is better? If so, post it and provide a comment or two why it is appropriate for what you want to measure. I am fine with the notion that my statistic only measures one aspect and not all aspects of such a top-10 question.

1. Hall

2. Abdi

3. Khannouchi (these 3 are way ahead (2:10's), and KK's preformance depends on whether or not Sell makes it)

4. Sell

5. Browne

6. Culpepper

7. Meb (he's not 100%)

8. Ritzenhein 2:12's

9. Gilmore 2:13

10.Lemkuhle 2:14

26mi235 wrote: edit out stuff

I am fine with the notion that my statistic only measures one aspect and not all aspects of such a top-10 question.

top 10 predicted order of finish?

no reason to include someone in your top 10 finishers list if you do not expect them to finish in the top 10 doing your picks to include only those you think will finish in the top 10 seems straight forward enough doing this does not lead me to think they hatched a plot to skew the results

pick the top ten means pick the top ten

pretty sure it seemed so simple to most of us.

use whatever formula you think is best but the question is simple

1. Ritz

2. Abdi

3. Hall

4. Sell

5. Culpepper

6. Carney

7. Browne

8. Gilmore

9. Verran

10. Torres

1. Meb

2. Ritz

3. Abdi

4. Hall

5. Browne

6. Sell

7. Culpepper

8. Rohatinsky

9. Lehmkuhle

10. Carney

11. Rexing

Predicted winning time: 2:13:15

I don\'t think the pace will go too fast as most of the pack will be feeling each other out for the first 3 or 4 laps, then it will get ratcheted down, most likely by Hall. The fittest and toughest guys will handle it fine from there. KK will drop out, as will some of the other top-tier guys that fall out of contention. Browne doesn\'t go with the surge, but finishes strong and moves up to 5th. Some solid runners that have too much honor to drop out fill in spots 6 to 10.